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banjofred
Posted: 30 December 2011 11:02:34(UTC)
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I am heavily into Gold and commodity funds which hold gold. these are now showing a dip as it hits $1571. So shaouod I panic, or should I listen to these fund managters syaing the only way is up (see video on citywire today).

I got out of Blackrock gold and general with a 64% profit, and have since got into Troy Trojan which holds gold etfs (is that ETF factor a worry folks??) but is 10.5% up since i got in a while ago. its dropped a percent recenlty big deal.

Other funds such as Investec GSF Global Gold
A Income USD are down 15% right now, but are in toip miners, so hopefully it will pull back?

Smith & Williamson Global Gold & Resources Wealth 150 fund
Income Shares was a temptation I could not refuse with its past performance. I am 23% down in notime, but again, hope for th best ..... the manager was full of enthusiams on this weeks video, well she has my dosh, so go for it girl....

JPMorgan Natural Resources Wealth 150 fund Accumulation Units have been great for some time, but then hit the deck and are down 23%. ouch

So you can see i am stuck on the yellow metal wiping out these troughs.
so whats next anyone ????


Well, the mugs are betting on the dollar again, which is worth 3% of its value in 1900, and with QE3 looming will be worth event less. With massive govt debt behind it and the other main currencies, growth low, what makes sense to you to hold?? Postage Stamps, fine art, precious metals.?? I am heavi8ly into gold and suffering from the $1500, but will stick with it. Currency just says "I promise to pay the bearer on demand........." What use is a politician s promise?? Gold is the haven of choice and has been for thousands of years.

the miners have been holding back divids and are mega cash rich.

When gold was at $272 an ounce and Gordon the Gormless was selling wouldyou have forecast $1500 or more??? Noooooo

In real terms with inflation apparenlty it should be $3000 already.

Sovereign nations are buyng up gold, not dollars, not euros. Why??

Any comments welcomed

Should we hold Gold?
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TJL on 13/07/2012(UTC)
maz mufa
Posted: 30 December 2011 12:42:51(UTC)
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It used to be that gold goes up when shares go down, as investors move to the safety of gold. But, for some reason, this is no longer the case. It is now varying with the price of other metals, and it seems to me that now it is inversely proportional to the price of the dollar. As the dollar goes up, an ounce of gold is worth less dollars.
I have been buying and selling gold on a small scale and can never get the minimum and maximum points. I am usually too early to act. I bought recently and was surprised by the price of the recent drop. But, I will hold on, strongly believing it will come back soon.
Good luck to you and happy investing in 2012.
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banjofred on 10/01/2012(UTC), Jeremy Fryman on 14/01/2012(UTC), Guest on 15/07/2012(UTC)
Thomas Smith
Posted: 05 January 2012 20:02:25(UTC)
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Why are you so heavily invest in gold related products. Seems like you might be taking on a lot of sector specific risk.
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banjofred on 10/01/2012(UTC), Guest on 12/01/2012(UTC), Guest on 15/07/2012(UTC)
Dave Duffy
Posted: 06 January 2012 04:49:42(UTC)
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I think you have too big a %age in Gold too, it is worrying you there at the time of your original post as you see profits slip and losses in some funds appearing. Looks like too high risk for your portfolio maybe.

The only time I would go seriously overweight on any commodity, sector or share if if there has been a good size correction, current price is looking good value and there are signs of a strong support level showing, and price has also bounced off a lower trend line.

Anyway you are in this trade now but your decision should really be based on how long you can stay with your position, do you need money out in the next couple of years? We all hate taking losses, and we've all been there. It hurts your wallet, hurts your pride, does not look good on your portfolio spreadsheet etc.

It's going to be a hard call where to place your money this year I reckon but if I was in your shoes and didn't need the money out for some years I would be tempted to hold out till prices rise, but as and when suitable maybe you should consider reducing the size of your holdings in Gold ETF's, Miners etc

Glad to hear you took a nice profit out of Blackrock Gold & General Fund, I did that too. Also had a good result spread betting a few times but lost out on Junior Gold Miner's Fund... that one has fallen further since I jumped out.

Hope you make the right decisions and it all comes good for you soon
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banjofred on 10/01/2012(UTC), Guest on 15/07/2012(UTC)
Karl Smith
Posted: 06 January 2012 10:09:47(UTC)
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Banjofred, I must agree with previous posts and note that your overweight position in the gold & mining sector would be of concern to me. Seems a high risk strategy (and I'm surprised the gold doom sayers haven't been in attack mode). My own view would be to get out of the ETFs soonest. Break even (if you can) or even take a small loss. My view of such instruments are that they're more for short term "guerrilla" exposure (to markets or indices), I don't see them as a long term-hold.
Notwithstanding the counter-party risk I'd prefer to hold physical gold anyway.
As for the miners, recent form suggests the FTSE (being dominated by miners) is a reasonable surrogate and thus would de-risk (or de-value depending on your view) your mining exposure slightly.
The big problem is: Where to put the proceeds? For risk spread, I'd go with income funds(e.g. M&G Global dividend and corporate bonds (either in a fund or direct). Not so racy, but at some point the markets may accellerate and as the saying goes "you've got to be in it to win it". Whilst the Citywire forums are full of praise for Ruffer Total Return .

Alternatively, holding out for sentiment to change may work for you (depending on your time horizon). From a positional perspective, the income fund (against the cash rich miners) seems to have some legs, whilst the JPM Nat Res fund is a good buy at the current levels.

Not much help (I know).
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banjofred on 10/01/2012(UTC), Guest on 15/07/2012(UTC), Guest on 23/07/2012(UTC)
banjofred
Posted: 10 January 2012 22:41:09(UTC)
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Thanks gentlemen, all good advice

I have recently taken the strategy of cashing in any funds//shares showng profit, and have managed to get from 10% to 36.5% into cash

the next 17.5% is in Troy trojan, i just added a couple of grand. i am up about 11.5% here and only part of the fund is gold, then bonds. it is doing well, although as you say the gold is etfs

The i have some Inv perp high income, again in good profit up 9%. sold some and took profit

The rest I have just reviewed yet again, and some of these funds are heading back towards at least break even.

Where i am stuck is being over a grand down on jpm nat res and various amounts down on the gold funds.


I dont need the money for 4 years

I sold some SL UK Equity unconstrained at a loss, and half of a gold fund, but reluctant to get out right now when its all slowly (very ) creeping back.

Stock name % Weight Sector
1 Cash 36.5% [N/A] - just took a 3 month HL cash investment
2 Troy Trojan Class I 16.3% Balanced Managed
3 Newton Real Return Class A 5.5% Absolute Return
4 JPM Natural Resources Class A 4.7% Specialist
5 First State Global Resources Class A 3.8% Specialist
6 Artemis Strategic Assets* 3.7% Active Managed
7 Artemis Global Energy Class R 3.5% Specialist
8 M&G Global Basics Class X 3.5% Global
9 Hargreaves Lansdown Multi-Manager Income & Growth Trust 2.9% UK Equity Income
10 Invesco Perpetual High Income 2.8% UK Equity Income
11 Standard Life Investments UK Equity Unconstrained Class R 2.3% UK All Companies
12 William Morrison Supermarkets 1.9% [N/A] - shares bought sold and rebought
13 Hargreaves Lansdown 1.9% [N/A]
14 First State Asia Pacific Leaders Class A 1.8% Asia Pacific Excluding Japan
15 CF JM Finn Global Opportunities 1.7% Global
16 Smith & Williamson Global Gold & Resources 1.6% Specialist
17 First State Global Agribusiness Class A 1.2% Specialist
18 Troy Trojan Class I 1.0% Balanced Managed
19 GLG Technology Equity 1.0% Technology & Telecommunications
20 BlackRock Global Consensus Class B 0.9% Global


I went in to "real " "solid" things like gold and commodities as i think paper is just paper. Have done well building fund by over 35% until the gold thing hit sept, and the funds hit august, knocking me about 8%.

I see you guys hit straight onto my problem, and would appreciate further comments.

As I say the strategy is to get my goods ashore before the next sunami, then buy a boat.

and of course
more banjos:

www.spanglefish.com/banjofredshangout

ta

fred
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Guest on 15/07/2012(UTC), Guest on 18/01/2013(UTC)
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 11 January 2012 13:40:35(UTC)
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Alternative investments go in and out of fashion over the decades. They are usually associated with high volatility, high charges and variable returns.

I have one gold miner, Kirkland Lake Gold, in the politically safe area of Canada; and one dealer in gold coins and other collectables, Noble Investments. Alternative investment operators also worth a look are Stanley Gibbons and Avarae Global Coins.

There are two main sorts of ETF. One is physical replication - holding all the stocks in an index or sector, or metal or agricultural produce. The other takes out derivatives that track the physical commodities or markets. The physical funds are expensive to run - imagine the cost of holding the S&P 500 and re-balancing every time a constituent rises or falls in price - but the assets are as safe as the underlying. The derivative based ETFs have counter-party risk. The provider of the guarantees that the derivatives will accurately reflect the market and customers will get paid might go bust. But then any part of any financial system could go bust due to incompetence, fraud, poor regulation, political insanity ... Investing is risky which is why it is profitable.

Generally the suppliers of picks and shovels made money from the early gold rushes and the suppliers of services are the main winners today. An example might be Skywest Airlines which flies miners in and out of remote parts of Australia. It makes a profit and pays a dividend confounding the rule about airlines. Another is Avingtrans that makes gas containers for the shale gas industry.

I share the opinion that you have too much in gold and also too many funds which are an expensive way to invest. Single shares, ETFs or retail bonds are the most cost effective. I don't believe that collective investments in general provide value for money because of charges and incompetence. If you must buy them: either Investment Trusts or ETFs are better. IMHO.

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banjofred on 11/01/2012(UTC), sgjhaghsdg on 17/01/2012(UTC), Guest on 15/07/2012(UTC), Guest on 15/07/2012(UTC)
banjofred
Posted: 13 January 2012 05:58:01(UTC)
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A fair bit to absorb there Jeremy. Thank you.

I am not up with "Investment Trusts" and will have to read further.

I had a whole bunch of funds to in theory spread the risk, but in reality when the market changes they all follow suit regardless.

I think I will start cutting down gradually and try to choose some low cost trackers, and some individual shares.

Ta


Fred
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steve sodium
Posted: 14 January 2012 11:01:25(UTC)
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Investing in Gold ?

I brought a big chunk of Blackrock and General last Sept lost a frigging load of cash.

BUT I brought shares in a Gold Mine...

A Gold Mine that is flooded with water ,a Gold Mine that lost its mining rights.

A Gold Mine that has brought pumps to get rid of said water.They will be operational in around 6 months.

A Gold Mine that has got its Licence back.

A Gold Mine that could produce 7000 ounces a month.

Was down to 0.3p now 1.03p .

I brought @ 0.78p .

The name ? Central Rand ,ticker CRND as always DYOR ( do your own research)
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Guest on 15/07/2012(UTC), Guest on 15/07/2012(UTC)
Jeff of Sidcup
Posted: 16 January 2012 18:35:26(UTC)
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Joined: 22/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 21
The easiest, safest way to invest in gold is to buy physical gold from the Bullion Vault. Then you actually own the stuff, unlike the dangerous derivative based ETFs. If there ever was a real run on gold, those ETFs would disappear in a puff of smoke, and with them all your money. I bought bullion today at £1073 per troy oz, which compares well with the price of Krugerrands at £1109 each. You can buy or sell gold at the time it takes to hit "sell" on their site
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Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 17 January 2012 06:17:17(UTC)
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There are ETFs that hold the physical metal and not derivatives. iShares ETFS and Lyxor Gold Bullion Securitiesare two providers that come to mind.
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banjofred
Posted: 17 January 2012 06:34:57(UTC)
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Jeremy

I emailed Troy asset abut the 2 gold etfs that comprise a lot of the trojan fund

They say they have been to vault and phsyically seen the god, and it is an etf backed by physical gold

As far as total physicla gold is concerned I understand sovereigns are best as they are coin of the realm and not subject to VAT
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Jeff of Sidcup
Posted: 17 January 2012 11:06:02(UTC)
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Joined: 22/10/2008(UTC)
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Jeremy,
You are, of course, correct in stating that there are ETFs which hold physical gold. I was merely pointing out that one should be aware that the "Derivatives" do not. I have an ETF in both gold and silver, backed by gold deposits.
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sgjhaghsdg
Posted: 17 January 2012 12:46:58(UTC)
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If you're feeling the need to hold so many funds, and to trade them and time them, then perhaps you're starting to see the problem with funds?

I'm now using Vanguard trackers for the core of my portfolio, with ETFs for corporate bonds, REITs for property and infrastruction, and just a couple of funds for areas that are hard to get to with passive investments.

I do still hold some "conviction" ITs such as Personal Assets, RIT and Ruffer, and do have a few funds that I'll admit I like the story of such as FS Global Listed Infrastructure, M&G Global Basics, and Liontrust Special Situations, but the rest are all being sold as I turn passive.
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banjofred on 19/01/2012(UTC)
johny harman
Posted: 28 April 2012 05:55:00(UTC)
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Joined: 28/04/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1
When we invest gold in ETFs or Miners, We must go through the portfolio of the company and also we verify the previous and current condition of the company. Before we invest or buy gold, take suggestions from experts or professional persons about the gold and also we maintain market knowledge about the gold. We didn't bother while we invest in ETFs, Most of the companies have many variances in seasonal times.


gold investment
gold invest
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nike willson
Posted: 12 July 2012 11:30:50(UTC)
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Joined: 12/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1
The ETF's are one of the saving ways now a days. They became very popular due to their fast approach and also due to their easy dealership methods. The money we are investing should produce us income. so for this to be done correct, we have to first know about the company better and also the turn over and the ratio of the company. After the detailed view of all of these, we may move further. Please produce some attachment links for the more detailed view.




Buy Gold Coins
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TJL
Posted: 12 July 2012 18:10:57(UTC)
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Hello Banjofred,
Excellent post - thanks.
I'm very interested, as I recently made a modest investment in a gold ETF (having proudly ignored all the hysteria/hype about gold whenever it was a while ago).
Please see the attachment - apologies if you've already seen it.
http://www.trustnet.com/...Research.aspx?id=350405
I'm an unqualified amateur, but it seems to me, gold, commodities (hard and soft) and miners will make the best investment of all time if you're prepared to wait long enough (like, longer than most of us (and even our children maybe) can afford to wait).
I took loads of profit from JP Nat Resources a while ago (you used Investec I think you said?); my gut feeling is to get back in, but I haven't done anything about it yet.
My other gut feeling is that Europe is the place for brave people to invest, but I haven't done anything about that either - I'm sure I'll regret it.
My (unqualified amateur) interpretation of the news is that there is lots more pain to come, which will tend make gold more attractive will it not?
When it comes to investment trusts, we are in the same boat; I have told myself that all new investments, or money moved sideways from funds, will be into investment trusts, or possibly trackers or ETFs.
I have spent the last couple of months reading everything available from the websites I'm sure we all use, and I finally feel I understand what's going on, having felt for a long time that they were a complete mystery, but, when it comes to which investment trusts to invest in, I'm afraid your guess is as good as mine.
Regards
TJL
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TJL
Posted: 12 July 2012 18:25:50(UTC)
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........although some trusts seem to get mentioned time and time again - a good starting point maybe (even if the real money is in 'undiscovered bargains')?
TJL
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Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 13 July 2012 09:45:17(UTC)
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I don't think gold will take off again for several years because it is an inflation hedge and we are living with deflation in most parts of the economy. Yes, I know the RPI is still going up but that is due to past oil prices and government taxation policies. We are also due a blip in food prices thanks to bad harvests of wheat, maize and soya in the USA and Brazil. But in the medium term, "austerity" induced deflation is it.

Eventually Merkel and even Osborne will realise that creating mass unemployment costs money in benefits, reduces the tax take, destroys economies and does not reduce government or private debts. But that will not happen until an election is much closer and dogma goes out of the window.

So I am out of gold mines and bullion for now.

I retain my holding in Noble Investments http://www.nobleinvestmentsplc.com which deals in antique coins as well as stamps and autographs. Avarae Gold Coins http://www.avarae.com is an alternative but smaller cap. They are not as closely linked to the gold price. Stanley Gibbons is an alternative for general collectables. Collectables are an inflation hedge but also fashion influenced so not an exact equivalent to bullion.

I also own Shaft Sinkers which builds mines for all commodities, not just gold. It is also a long cycle play in that mine building takes years and is predicated on commodity prices well into the future.

Oil and gas services companies also appeal as a picks and shovels style play. They are less volatile than the explorers and producers and tend not to require constant injections of capital as many junior oils do.
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lynne shaffer
Posted: 13 July 2012 15:47:14(UTC)
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Sorry, but can't find out how to start a new topic. my apologies!

I had an email today about Melrose shares. Apparently there is a renounceable rights stock andgiving 4 options that we have to choose from.

Does anyone know about this and which is most beneficial to choose?

Thanks

Lynne Shaffer
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