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Alfa Financial Software
Sara G
Posted: 04 June 2018 10:16:56(UTC)
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...So that was quite a drop. Anyone see this as a possible bargain?

It is a market leader in its field (asset finance) has £30m in cash and no debt. OTOH earnings are at the mercy of potential delays to contracts it would seem. Suspect it was over-valued to begin with (it's a fairly recent listing), but future potential is still there in my view and it could represent value at current price levels. Old Mutual and Henderson have stakes in the company (although of course fund managers are not infallible).
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Road-Man on 07/06/2018(UTC), Dian on 08/06/2018(UTC)
Dian
Posted: 07 June 2018 08:57:43(UTC)
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It has good numbers but I cannot understand their business well. However, bargains overlooked and corrected stocks and currently out of favour ones could have rally toward second half of this year.
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Sara G on 07/06/2018(UTC)
S_M
Posted: 07 June 2018 09:30:00(UTC)
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Sara G;63348 wrote:
...So that was quite a drop. Anyone see this as a possible bargain?

It is a market leader in its field (asset finance) has £30m in cash and no debt. OTOH earnings are at the mercy of potential delays to contracts it would seem. Suspect it was over-valued to begin with (it's a fairly recent listing), but future potential is still there in my view and it could represent value at current price levels. Old Mutual and Henderson have stakes in the company (although of course fund managers are not infallible).


Did you buy into Alfa Financial Software Sara? Its had quite a bounce this week.

I am looking for a Fintech company to compliment the rest of my tech holdings, will need to look deeper into this company and what caused the SP collapse.

Robo advisory services are also now starting to take shape, filling the gaps between DIY investing and obtaining face to face financial advice. Given the regulatory landscape in the UK, this is a potentially huge as yet untapped market.
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Dian on 08/06/2018(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 07 June 2018 09:59:36(UTC)
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Yes bought in around 160p so doing OK so far - see comment on Transactions thread. It could (and still might) go the other way though... There is an article on the Proactive Investors site which may be of interest.

For fintech generally I've had an eye on FTEK for some time, but this includes big players too so overlaps with some of my fund holdings to some extent so I have not invested.

I'm also looking at Trufin, but holding fire for now. The sp got a boost from a mention in the Telegraph so could fall back again. Don't really understand enough about it yet but it has a stake in ZOPA, which may be about to list publicly. Augmentum Fintech IT is another option (and also has a stake in ZOPA).



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S_M on 07/06/2018(UTC), Road-Man on 07/06/2018(UTC), Dian on 08/06/2018(UTC)
S_M
Posted: 07 June 2018 10:11:07(UTC)
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Sara G;63512 wrote:
Yes bought in around 160p so doing OK so far - see comment on Transactions thread. It could (and still might) go the other way though... There is an article on the Proactive Investors site which may be of interest.

For fintech generally I've had an eye on FTEK for some time, but this includes big players too so overlaps with some of my fund holdings to some extent so I have not invested.

I'm also looking at Trufin, but holding fire for now. The sp got a boost from a mention in the Telegraph so could fall back again. Don't really understand enough about it yet but it has a stake in ZOPA, which may be about to list publicly. Augmentum Fintech IT is another option (and also has a stake in ZOPA).





It's flying again today, so seems like you've called the bottom. Thanks for the heads up on the other companies.
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Sara G on 07/06/2018(UTC), Dian on 08/06/2018(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 07 June 2018 10:33:47(UTC)
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Bizarrely ALFA has made it into the top 10 most traded shares on the HL site... I believe this is because there has been a large number of very small 'bot trades'. I'm unclear as to why this is or what the impact is likely to be if these trades suddenly dry up (although of course it's difficult to know for sure whether they are buys or sells). Something to be aware of though...
3 users thanked Sara G for this post.
Mr J on 07/06/2018(UTC), Dian on 08/06/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 08/06/2018(UTC)
Jeff Liddiard
Posted: 07 June 2018 11:56:09(UTC)
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Sara G;63516 wrote:
Bizarrely ALFA has made it into the top 10 most traded shares on the HL site... I believe this is because there has been a large number of very small 'bot trades'. I'm unclear as to why this is or what the impact is likely to be if these trades suddenly dry up (although of course it's difficult to know for sure whether they are buys or sells). Something to be aware of though...






On the LSE (London South East) site shows more buys than sells



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Sara G on 07/06/2018(UTC), Dian on 08/06/2018(UTC)
Road-Man
Posted: 07 June 2018 17:36:44(UTC)
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Thanks for identifying this Sara.

I usually like to buy in to recovery stocks that I feel has been unfairly punished by the market, however I thought this was an opportunity for a short term trade.

I had a quick look at the annual report in FY2017 and my concerns for a long term hold are;
1. 51% of earnings is from implementation, currently 5 implementations in progress with delays reported in 2 causing the share drop. Delays on implementation of projects is common place so the risk high with such low volume of projects. Therefore long term revenue is likely to fluctulate.

2. They only have 32 customers.

3. Recently floated in June 2017.

In summary I had the opportunity to buy at 150p but waited to see where it would stabilise, now looks like a mistake as the short term trade gain is gone.
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Sara G on 07/06/2018(UTC), Dian on 08/06/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 08/06/2018(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 07 June 2018 18:05:34(UTC)
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You may yet get another opportunity Road-man - those are all valid concerns that could hit the sp again if there are further delays - the half-year results will be a key event in September. Plus this is a naturally volatile share - despite its capsize, I understand that a large chunk of the shares are still held by management. Investors Chronicle is certainly wary according to the most recent article. I suppose the thing with recovery investing is that there are always problems on the horizon - that's the risk premium.

To be honest I hadn't expected it to bounce this quickly - a sign of the inherent volatility - and if it does shoot up again significantly in the short term I would regard that as an overreaction in the other direction and would consider taking profits and waiting for further opportunities.
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Dian on 08/06/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 08/06/2018(UTC)
Dian
Posted: 08 June 2018 06:18:46(UTC)
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I would like to screen stocks which are hitting 52 week low or trading closer to it and then like to stay with strong balance sheet firms with great potential. First of all I am wondering why did they buy stocks when they hit 52 or all time high and sell when they hit 52 weeks low. They are making terrible mistakes for some quality companies. If they were willing to pay so much why can’t we pay half the price of it to acquire some quality business. As Road man said there are stocks unfairly punished by the market.
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Sara G on 08/06/2018(UTC), Mr Helpful on 08/06/2018(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 08 June 2018 07:28:05(UTC)
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Dian;63547 wrote:
I would like to screen stocks which are hitting 52 week low or trading closer to it and then like to stay with strong balance sheet firms with great potential. First of all I am wondering why did they buy stocks when they hit 52 or all time high and sell when they hit 52 weeks low. They are making terrible mistakes for some quality companies. If they were willing to pay so much why can’t we pay half the price of it to acquire some quality business. As Road man said there are stocks unfairly punished by the market.


I couldn't agree more, Dian. I think behavioural economics explains it in part, but also technology, which makes it easy and relatively cheap to trade within seconds of hearing good or bad news - whether in a state of panic or euphoria, both of which are likely to be unjustified.

But also a lot of the trading that goes on is algorithmic, so there are investors trying to take the emotion out of their decisions (one assumes), which is a good thing - but not if the strategy is flawed - getting stopped out because a price falls, for example.

It does create opportunities for the rest of us though...

2 users thanked Sara G for this post.
Dian on 08/06/2018(UTC), Mr Helpful on 08/06/2018(UTC)
Dian
Posted: 08 June 2018 09:13:05(UTC)
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Sara I agree with you. I did some study on selected global stocks over the past six years. Many like to follow bullish stocks and ignore bearish stocks. Today’s bullish stocks are yesterday’s very bearish stocks. I found these types of stocks in various sectors which include tech sector. As markets have lot of overvalued stocks, I am currently following bearish stocks specially punished by the market without knowing true value of them. There is no competition to buy bearish stocks.
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Mr Helpful on 08/06/2018(UTC), Sara G on 08/06/2018(UTC)
Chris Ould
Posted: 08 June 2018 13:48:10(UTC)
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Dian & Sara, I think your spot-on with convenience of technology and the use of algorithmic trades.

All it needs is a hint within an earnings report (RWS - now swung back up, but still potential), or a placing that then spooks a lot of people (Bango - ??).

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Sara G on 08/06/2018(UTC), Dian on 09/06/2018(UTC)
Jeff Liddiard
Posted: 08 June 2018 14:07:05(UTC)
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Chris Ould;63584 wrote:
Dian & Sara, I think your spot-on with convenience of technology and the use of algorithmic trades.

All it needs is a hint within an earnings report (RWS - now swung back up, but still potential), or a placing that then spooks a lot of people (Bango - ??).




Chris. Glad you mentioned Bango (BGO). I've seen the price went down a little today. You apparently know the reason?
Sara G
Posted: 08 June 2018 14:56:32(UTC)
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Yes - thanks Chris - I hadn't spotted that one - will look into it.
Chris Ould
Posted: 09 June 2018 12:26:49(UTC)
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[/quote]Chris. Glad you mentioned Bango (BGO). I've seen the price went down a little today. You apparently know the reason?[/quote]

Jeff...cannot say why it went down, but it does tend to get played. Last year, it went lower than it is now...then came a trading update on 11th July and the next stop was 280. Not saying thats going to happen again...but worth watching.

Those with a small cap leaning, might be worth keeping an eye on Kainos Group...seems to be on a run. Difficult company to access, fingers in lots of digital pies, but recent results suggest good things ahead.
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Jeff Liddiard on 09/06/2018(UTC)
Jeff Liddiard
Posted: 09 June 2018 19:16:50(UTC)
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Sorry to hijack the ALFA thread, but re Bango, the downward price started about the same time as this Block Listing notice below. Also a Director exercised 10,000 of his employee share options and sold them for £1.70.


01 June 2018
BANGO PLC
("Bango")
 
Total Voting Rights - Shares issued from Block Listing
 
Bango (AIM: BGO), the mobile commerce company, announces that the total issued share capital after the issue of 21,052 New Ordinary Shares following the exercise of employee share options during the month ended 31 May 2018, was 69,824,630 Ordinary Shares each with voting rights. Of the total of 21,052 New Ordinary Shares, 21,052 have been admitted to trading under the Block Listing for the Bango PLC 2005 Employee Share Option Plan and 0 have been admitted to trading under the Block Listing for the Bango PLC 2017 Employee Share Option Plan.
 
Bango does not currently hold any shares in treasury. This figure of 69,824,630 Ordinary Shares may be used by shareholders in Bango as the denominator for the calculations by which they will determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change in their interest in, the share capital of Bango under the FCA's Disclosure and Transparency Rules. 


Having said that I am considering adding to my existing holding.
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Chris Ould on 10/06/2018(UTC)
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