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Ruffer
Aminatidi
Posted: 12 April 2018 16:10:50(UTC)
#21

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Interesting article about Ruffer on the FT site today.

If you don't subscribe it seems to work if you Google "‘50 cent’ insurance buyer predicts further market turmoil" but the direct link is https://www.ft.com/conte...8-11e8-b7e0-52972418fec4
john brace
Posted: 12 April 2018 16:35:18(UTC)
#22

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Bought Ruffer for safety in Feb 2017 - still down nearly 4% - I hope his positioning pays off.
Keith Cobby
Posted: 12 April 2018 16:40:48(UTC)
#23

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I always listen to Ruffer and Lyon and do the opposite. I find the PNL quarterly reports very helpful.
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Mr Helpful on 12/04/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 12 April 2018 17:02:02(UTC)
#24

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Ruffer's main fund is still up about 450%(?) this century .. and performance has never really faltered – it's always been a tortoise, and never really lost much.

I really like the team, and Jonathan Ruffer .. It's always been a beacon of long-termism and rationality.

But I have thought about cutting my (small) position .. It's not that the team are any less brilliant – I'm just unsure there's much you can hedge with cost effectively outside cash
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dlp6666 on 13/04/2018(UTC)
Fell Walker
Posted: 12 April 2018 18:55:36(UTC)
#25

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RICA -2% in 1 year, 6% over 3 years and 11% over 5 years, I think I will skip it. Better off in Fundsmith, LT Global etc. combined with cash in NS&I IMO.

Keep calling a crash one day you'll be correct I guess.
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Mickey on 13/04/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 12 April 2018 19:17:34(UTC)
#26

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I'm in the same boat .. But it is always worth looking at Ruffer's long-term performance in context:

https://i.imgur.com/i2oMTST.png

They're still grinding out absolute returns at about the rate they always have been .. The market, on the other hand, can wipe out 7 years of returns very quickly – and the maths really works against you when it comes to losses.

So, yes, if they keep predicting a bear market they'll be right eventually .. But they've already been right twice since 2000 .. So it's not like they're sitting on a legacy of failure.
5 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Fell Walker on 12/04/2018(UTC), Tim D on 12/04/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 13/04/2018(UTC), Chris Howland on 13/04/2018(UTC), Jim S on 13/04/2018(UTC)
Fell Walker
Posted: 12 April 2018 19:26:57(UTC)
#27

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Take Trustnet, there's been a constant stream of predictions of market crashes and bear markets from around 2009-2010 a couple of my favourites were James Sullivan and Martin Grey who at the time were at Mitton managing about 3 funds, in the end end there performance was so dire they parted from Mitton and started up their own company following their bearish instincts with equally low returns.

I used to like the photo Trustnet had of Martin Grey, he looked the epitome of doom!
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john brace on 12/04/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 13/04/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 12 April 2018 19:40:03(UTC)
#28

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Yeah, it's really why markets don't just shoot up 150% as soon as a bull market begins..

That's what would happen if people stopped thinking there was going to be a crash – and why they call it 'climbing the wall of worry'.

On the other hand, there are just as many examples to the contrary (obviously – being that for every bull market there is a bear market) .. e.g. in the Tech Bubble, everyone thought stocks would rise forever .. Likewise in the US housing bubble, and the cleantech bubble – the bulls are wrong as often as the bears are, which is why there's always a seller for every buyer .. And so far this century, Ruffer have been on the right side of every big move
Tug Boat
Posted: 13 April 2018 08:29:30(UTC)
#29

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Just a note on quantum computing, existing computers rely on quantum physics. It's the first thing you learn or was when I was at university. Can the electron in a transistor occupy another state is the question. Don't know what this means in terms of coding, I can't get to grips with that.

Also Bell's experiment proved QM and disproved Albert's reference to spooky physics.
King Lodos
Posted: 13 April 2018 14:05:51(UTC)
#30

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There are things within q-physics that are demonstrably true – like tunnelling in transistors.

Re: Bell

His test is used to disprove local realism – which is where the real benefits of quantum computing would be found.

But there's a thing known as the Bell Test Loophole .. Looking at articles, it's only 2015 physicists claim to have performed the first loophole-free experiment, but still in 2017 acknowledging it's only being closed gradually.

Having a classical explanation for the most revolutionary claim of q-physics, and not taking it as the default position, is like watching a magic trick you can explain on TV, and assuming it's being done with real magic.

I'm waiting for q-physics to be proved to me .. But at the moment, it's not rational to take that as the base case .. Physics departments need funding, and people need to keep publishing, and that's why there's an incentive to chase rabbits down holes .. What's shocking is how few people want to take a position against mainstream academia .. To me it's just blockchain all over again: someone tell me what it's good for?
Tug Boat
Posted: 14 April 2018 07:29:32(UTC)
#31

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Absolute and utter complete bollocks.

How are you on global warming?

There's an Isaac Asimov quote which describes you, I'm sure you can look that up too.

Aminatidi
Posted: 14 April 2018 07:53:49(UTC)
#33

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King Lodos
Posted: 14 April 2018 14:14:14(UTC)
#32

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Tug Boat;60591 wrote:
Absolute and utter complete bollocks.

How are you on global warming?

There's an Isaac Asimov quote which describes you, I'm sure you can look that up too.


A simple Google could enlighten you to the existence of 'Bell's Detection Loophole':

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loopholes_in_Bell_test_experiments

Like blockchain, if you actually grasp this stuff – rather than mindlessly going along with public opinion – you can have a nuanced, intelligent view .. Which you certainly need with global warming


Keith Cobby
Posted: 14 April 2018 14:54:25(UTC)
#34

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I can't remember a time when Ruffer has been bullish or even optimistic. I am on Nick Train's side of the argument. You can lose a lot of opportunity in cash waiting for the end of the world. In the meantime there are some great companies/funds.
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Fell Walker on 15/04/2018(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 14 April 2018 15:34:42(UTC)
#35

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Keith Cobby;60610 wrote:
I can't remember a time when Ruffer has been bullish or even optimistic. I am on Nick Train's side of the argument. You can lose a lot of opportunity in cash waiting for the end of the world. In the meantime there are some great companies/funds.


Every time I have one of those "do something defensive" thoughts it's what I tell myself :)
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