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FTSE 100 drops back below 7000 - the lost years?
Mr Helpful
Posted: 22 March 2018 12:01:30(UTC)
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In December 1999 the FTSE 100 peaked at 6930.
Today noted the FTSE hovering around 6970, nearly back to the level of late 1999.
Meanwhile over those same years International markets have moved ahead quite profitably.

There must be conclusions to be drawn - but what are they?
2 users thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
neville dwards on 22/03/2018(UTC), Tim D on 22/03/2018(UTC)
Tony Peterson
Posted: 22 March 2018 12:13:00(UTC)
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There be bargains around.
9 users thanked Tony Peterson for this post.
Mr Helpful on 22/03/2018(UTC), neville dwards on 22/03/2018(UTC), Tim D on 22/03/2018(UTC), Kenpen2 on 22/03/2018(UTC), Alan M on 22/03/2018(UTC), Sara G on 22/03/2018(UTC), Captain Slugwash on 22/03/2018(UTC), antigricer on 22/03/2018(UTC), Mike L on 23/03/2018(UTC)
neville dwards
Posted: 22 March 2018 12:29:15(UTC)
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Yes looks like some Bargains around.
may buy into.

ITV. 141-143
VOD. 192
BT 218

very good yields.and looking for the long term ???
even though there many experts say recession on its way before 2020.

anyone buying or is it still too early for dipping your toes in...
Tim D
Posted: 22 March 2018 13:06:32(UTC)
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That got me looking at the chart of how things have evolved since...

NB this is WITH REINVESTMENT. (It really bugs me when my risk averse relatives point at an unchanged index value as evidence their bank deposits are a better home for their money, completely failing to appreciate the UK index comes with a considerably better yield than the paltry interest rate they're getting. While trustnet would let me plot on a no-reinvestment basis, I just can't see any value in showing that. Slightly annoyingly trustnet doesn't have any pure-USA indices to chart, but of course the USA does rather dominate FTSE World).

Total return since 1999

Not a good view for someone who's hung onto a fair bit of "home bias" in their portfolio.

(Incidentally, if I add the FTSE250 in... it wipes the floor with everything with an over 400% gain over the period.)
16 users thanked Tim D for this post.
Fell Walker on 22/03/2018(UTC), Mr Helpful on 22/03/2018(UTC), mcminvest on 22/03/2018(UTC), neville dwards on 22/03/2018(UTC), Guest on 22/03/2018(UTC), Kenpen2 on 22/03/2018(UTC), Jim S on 22/03/2018(UTC), Blue S on 22/03/2018(UTC), RKB on 22/03/2018(UTC), Tony Peterson on 22/03/2018(UTC), antigricer on 22/03/2018(UTC), John Miskelly on 23/03/2018(UTC), Vince. on 23/03/2018(UTC), Ardeebee on 23/03/2018(UTC), laang lee on 23/03/2018(UTC), Mike L on 23/03/2018(UTC)
Tom Mozy
Posted: 22 March 2018 13:12:13(UTC)
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The majority of the FTSE 100 is uninvestable imo. Full to the brim of banks, oils, miners, insurance, defence.

Its a poor index to look at price levels.
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neville dwards on 22/03/2018(UTC), Keith Cobby on 22/03/2018(UTC), antigricer on 22/03/2018(UTC)
Kenpen2
Posted: 22 March 2018 14:23:50(UTC)
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Tim D : "(Incidentally, if I add the FTSE250 in... it wipes the floor with everything with an over 400% gain over the period.)"

Well why not add it in ?? The single most useful stat I've read in months - thanks for the reminder !
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antigricer on 22/03/2018(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 22 March 2018 14:29:04(UTC)
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[quote=neville dwards;59146] Yes looks like some Bargains around.
may buy into.

ITV. 141-143
VOD. 192
BT 218

very good yields.and looking for the long term ???
even though there many experts say recession on its way before 2020.

anyone buying or is it still too early for dipping your toes in...
[/quote

I believe the answer is a big No.....we have only had weak markets for a few months. As the pain increases investors will start to move into cash or near cash....... Zeros/premium bonds/easy access a/c. As we can see from this forum we still have bullish comments which is a bearish sign in my book. IT average discounts need to widen considerably before markets are right to buy.
9 users thanked Big boy for this post.
martin hargan on 22/03/2018(UTC), Mr Helpful on 22/03/2018(UTC), Tim D on 22/03/2018(UTC), neville dwards on 22/03/2018(UTC), Jim S on 22/03/2018(UTC), Alan Selwood on 22/03/2018(UTC), Sara G on 22/03/2018(UTC), antigricer on 22/03/2018(UTC), Mike L on 23/03/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 22 March 2018 14:40:53(UTC)
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The thing is the 10yr yield's back down to 2.8%, and US stocks I'm buying are set to return around 10% (based on forecast growth and earnings yields).

Without a recession, I just don't see much selling before buyers rush in .. The risk of giving up the best returns you'll get over the next 5 years, for bonds that are probably going to lose you money, when inflation's still not there, and the yield curve's some way from inverting.

There could be a momentum crash – that would be a big buying opportunity imo

3 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
neville dwards on 22/03/2018(UTC), Keith Cobby on 22/03/2018(UTC), antigricer on 22/03/2018(UTC)
bouleversee
Posted: 22 March 2018 15:12:16(UTC)
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Is there a low charge FTSE 250 index fund? I simply don't have time to keep track of all my shares and I agree about the FTSE 100.
Mr Helpful
Posted: 22 March 2018 15:23:53(UTC)
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bouleversee;59162 wrote:
Is there a low charge FTSE 250 index fund? I simply don't have time to keep track of all my shares and I agree about the FTSE 100.


VMID is an option, or MIDD.
1 user thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
bouleversee on 22/03/2018(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 22 March 2018 15:33:21(UTC)
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bouleversee;59162 wrote:
Is there a low charge FTSE 250 index fund? I simply don't have time to keep track of all my shares and I agree about the FTSE 100.


Monevator has a nice and occasionally updated list of low-cost trackers for various asset classes which includes a section:

Quote:
Domestic mid cap equity

Cheapest

Vanguard FTSE 250 ETF (VMID) OCF 0.1%

Next best

L&G UK MID Cap Index Fund I (GB00BQ1JYX87) OCF 0.14%

db X-trackers FTSE 250 ETF (LU0292097317) OCF 0.15%


However elsewhere I've seen it mentioned you might want to look a bit closer at whether FTSE250 or FTSE250 ex-IT is being tracked.... the ex-IT has generally performed slightly better I think (perhaps because it avoids holding a bunch of ITs which are held back by mainly holding FTSE100 companies, or because it means you end up paying some IT management charges you could have avoided... don't know... it's a pretty small effect though).
5 users thanked Tim D for this post.
Mr Helpful on 22/03/2018(UTC), bouleversee on 22/03/2018(UTC), John Miskelly on 23/03/2018(UTC), laang lee on 23/03/2018(UTC), Mike L on 23/03/2018(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 22 March 2018 17:18:17(UTC)
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As a broad question if you have cash today would you be buying or waiting a little longer?

Timing v time in I know... still...
King Lodos
Posted: 22 March 2018 17:26:55(UTC)
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It's not an OBVIOUS buy – because a) it's not much of a move, and b) it may be justified on trade war fears.

Neither is it an OBVIOUS sell – because a recession doesn't look very likely yet.


Technical analysts might see the February lows as a test – so don't be surprised if they touch those lows again .. But for value investors, I think there are perfectly reasonable stocks to buy right now – ignoring short-term market moves
2 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Aminatidi on 22/03/2018(UTC), antigricer on 22/03/2018(UTC)
sloccy123
Posted: 22 March 2018 17:47:58(UTC)
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I believe that ITV, Babcock & Whitbread are currently seriously undervalued by the market-taking a 5 year view-Anyone agree???
Keith Cobby
Posted: 22 March 2018 18:25:59(UTC)
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Tom Mozy;59149 wrote:
The majority of the FTSE 100 is uninvestable imo. Full to the brim of banks, oils, miners, insurance, defence.

Its a poor index to look at price levels.


Yes, full of ex-growth value traps.
Mr Helpful
Posted: 22 March 2018 19:25:03(UTC)
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Aminatidi;59173 wrote:
As a broad question if you have cash today would you be buying or waiting a little longer?


For us moving to target is a process rather than a snap-judgement, so we have been very very modestly buying Stocks since the February squall. Moving towards Stock target very gently (time diversification).

Still regard Global markets as quite fully valued.
The FTSE 100, more of a puzzle.
PE stretched @ 23.1?, Dividend Yield more beckoning @ something over 4%?
Dividend Cover is the dilemma - will it recover to make that Dividend Yield the more meaningful measure going forward?
As observed FTSE 100 companies are an odd distorted assortment, not a balanced portfolio.
1 user thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
Tim D on 22/03/2018(UTC)
Tyrion Lannister
Posted: 22 March 2018 20:05:54(UTC)
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sloccy123;59177 wrote:
I believe that ITV, Babcock & Whitbread are currently seriously undervalued by the market-taking a 5 year view-Anyone agree???


On ITV, I don't agree.

It's an outdated business model and from what I can see, the audience is getting older for a start.

I can't remember the last time I watched anything on ITV, but then I don't watch reality TV or soaps.

The licenses they hold will become less valuable over time as big companies such as Amazon, Netflix and Google will continue to grow with their own online offering.

3 users thanked Tyrion Lannister for this post.
Sara G on 22/03/2018(UTC), Tim D on 22/03/2018(UTC), Jon Snow on 24/03/2018(UTC)
Tyrion Lannister
Posted: 22 March 2018 20:11:20(UTC)
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Aminatidi;59173 wrote:
As a broad question if you have cash today would you be buying or waiting a little longer?

Timing v time in I know... still...


I'm hedging my bets, investing a little during dips but holding around 20% in cash. I've been topping up today for example, and intend to do so tomorrow.
Sara G
Posted: 22 March 2018 20:23:39(UTC)
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Morningstar are highlighting IMB, BAB, RB. and SHP as potential bargains. SHP looks interesting in particular in terms of potential upside - if brokers' forecasts mean anything.

Among midcaps, SOPH is on my watchlist and getting cheaper.

I'm trying not to buy too much though as the rising £ and trade wars / interest rate rises could lead to top-up opportunities in international quality / growth funds - for me these would take precedence over recovery / value plays.

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Gary Millar on 22/03/2018(UTC), Vince. on 23/03/2018(UTC)
Tony Peterson
Posted: 22 March 2018 20:46:46(UTC)
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As I plan to increase our stakeholdings in several FTSE100 companies a fortnight tomorrow (though I don't know which yet) I would be greatly obliged if those with negative views of their prospects give even more publicity to their hopelessness. A further wave of selling and downward pressure on the index would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks in advance.
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