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Terry Smith piles into Facebook
John xyz
Posted: 20 March 2018 05:41:19(UTC)
#42

Joined: 18/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 2

Not the best timing.
AndyN
Posted: 20 March 2018 10:16:01(UTC)
#43

Joined: 23/09/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1

Has Terry Smith made a big mistake buying Facebook when youth usage is declining and the latest privacy problems wiping billions from facebook value?
kWIKSAVE
Posted: 20 March 2018 10:41:27(UTC)
#44

Joined: 14/08/2013(UTC)
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I am a bit nervous about FB as there is much competition.

I do use it but prefer What's App and Facetime for intimate chats.

As for Fundsmith, TS comes across as knowing his onions but will stick with
Nick Train. Will top up my SIPP on 6 April with his Global Equity Fund (£3.6K gross).

However, I have always liked the business model of Amadeus, Smith's largest holding, so have recently invested in this stock.

As for Domino's, topped up recently. Overall holding a 5% loss which is a lot better !

Also topped up Adidas. The CEO is great and their gear will be in force in Russia and also at the Masters where Sergio defends wearing 3 stripes.
2 users thanked kWIKSAVE for this post.
Jim S on 20/03/2018(UTC), gillyann on 24/03/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 20 March 2018 11:09:37(UTC)
#45

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
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I don't think Smith was tactically trading Facebook – the fundamentals are the reason to buy .. So a fall in price should give him a nice opportunity to buy slightly cheaper.

I think this is the kind of bad news you can buy .. Most people don't realise these companies are ALL paid for by your data .. That's the whole business model .. The media aspect of this is just the anti-Trump thing – which means the story's being blown up by the crazies .. I think most sane people either know how social networks work or don't care.

If it's a big enough issue they'll just come with a tick box: pay for this service or let us use your data .. Might even raise the margins .. If Facebook was a good buy a month ago, it's a slightly better buy now.
3 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Jim S on 20/03/2018(UTC), Abstract Artist on 24/03/2018(UTC), halfinchnut on 25/03/2018(UTC)
Bellabeck
Posted: 20 March 2018 13:02:50(UTC)
#46

Joined: 15/03/2016(UTC)
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So number crunchers, does this make it a good a time as any to buy more SMT? I've been prevaricating since January...
Freddy4Skin
Posted: 20 March 2018 13:37:49(UTC)
#47

Joined: 22/04/2014(UTC)
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Bellabeck;59025 wrote:
So number crunchers, does this make it a good a time as any to buy more SMT? I've been prevaricating since January...


I'm taking bets on the predictability of the response from regular poster. Tesla bla bla bla
King Lodos
Posted: 20 March 2018 15:13:43(UTC)
#48

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
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^^ I'll take those odds!


Naturally this chart's going to stretch off the page – so I'll continue in the NEXT post

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iOm5xm9mCU2U/v2/1400x-1.png
King Lodos
Posted: 20 March 2018 15:22:31(UTC)
#49

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Tech vs Utilities .. Today vs 2000.

Biggest question hanging over markets today: is tech in another bubble, or are valuations justified by the new economy – the forth industrial revolution?

That question, I'd say, dictates whether you outperform or underperform, significantly, over the next 10-15 years .. And there's no maths to help you – it's a very abstract question .. Tech has been the worst performing sector since the 60s because we've consistently overvalued business potential .. But it's the 21st century, and you do have to ask different questions – and at some point, AI is going to zoom past human intelligence, and you probably want to own part of that .. Then again, maybe that's the trap
1 user thanked King Lodos for this post.
Abstract Artist on 24/03/2018(UTC)
geoffrey Walton
Posted: 20 March 2018 15:38:46(UTC)
#50

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King Lodos;59035 wrote:
Tech vs Utilities .. Today vs 2000.

and at some point, AI is going to zoom past human intelligence, ..


I look forward to it's Posts and Graphs(smile)
1 user thanked geoffrey Walton for this post.
King Lodos on 20/03/2018(UTC)
RAR
Posted: 20 March 2018 17:16:22(UTC)
#51

Joined: 13/01/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2

Hi King Lodos,

I thought that Terry Smith had already bought Facebook and was now sitting on a loss.
I'm invested with his equity fund and it certainly looked like it was a done deal, but you probably have better information than me.
King Lodos
Posted: 20 March 2018 17:52:41(UTC)
#53

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RAR;59040 wrote:
Hi King Lodos,

I thought that Terry Smith had already bought Facebook and was now sitting on a loss.
I'm invested with his equity fund and it certainly looked like it was a done deal, but you probably have better information than me.


What funds as large as Fundsmith tend to do is build positions over long periods .. Putting really large orders in pushes prices up, as you run out of willing sellers .. e.g. it's taken Warren Buffett two years, so far, to build his position in Apple.

So for big investors, like Buffett, a price falling when you start buying is a great outcome, because whatever convinced you the stock was good value before should now tell you it's better value.

Sometimes Smith has got in and out of positions quickly, but I think he'd need to believe the investment case had changed .. e.g. We don't rush to sell our houses just because the housing market's gone down .. I would still say Facebook's a bit of a punt – but it's got some great numbers

1 user thanked King Lodos for this post.
Abstract Artist on 24/03/2018(UTC)
Fuzzy Beats
Posted: 20 March 2018 22:50:24(UTC)
#52

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RAR;59040 wrote:
I thought that Terry Smith had already bought Facebook and was now sitting on a loss.
I'm invested with his equity fund and it certainly looked like it was a done deal, but you probably have better information than me.

Smith apparently initiated the position in Facebook in February so most likely sitting on a paper loss at the moment.

The updated 13F filings will soon be available on Holdings Channel so the extent of the buying spree will be revealed.

Zuckerberg continues to dump millions more shares on the market this month - perhaps Terry has been the obliging purchaser?

http://www.hl.co.uk/shar...d0.000006/director-deals
1 user thanked Fuzzy Beats for this post.
Mike L on 21/03/2018(UTC)
RAR
Posted: 21 March 2018 09:52:18(UTC)
#54

Joined: 13/01/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2

Thank you King Lodos & Fuzzy beats...

Both of your comments are revealing to me and make sense...

I noticed that the fund had dropped from 361.71 0n the 16th march to 356.19 yesterday but that's not an unusually large change.

The 13F Holdings Channel is new to me - I'll try to google that and see what it gives me!

The enquiry into Facebook and Cambridge Analitica needs to happen for all the right reasons but I doubt if most Facebook users throughout the world would know or care or understand what's happening. But also 'youngsters' are very fickle in their choices and maybe Facebooks heyday is already waning with something new appearing...
King Lodos
Posted: 21 March 2018 11:32:49(UTC)
#55

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No problem!

This is the site I use to look at what Fundsmith's buying:
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/fundsmith-llp

There's a 3 month delay, and it's only US-listed stocks – so Facebook hasn't shown up yet .. I wouldn't say Facebook is a sure bet – I think if it were, it would be on much higher valuations, like Tencent .. But Facebook hasn't really fallen much, and wasn't a huge position .. I *might* buy more on this weakness
3 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Alan Selwood on 21/03/2018(UTC), Abstract Artist on 24/03/2018(UTC), Hilary hames on 06/04/2018(UTC)
Alan Selwood
Posted: 21 March 2018 14:05:34(UTC)
#56

Joined: 17/12/2011(UTC)
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King Lodos;59076 wrote:
No problem!

This is the site I use to look at what Fundsmith's buying:
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/fundsmith-llp

There's a 3 month delay, and it's only US-listed stocks – so Facebook hasn't shown up yet .. I wouldn't say Facebook is a sure bet – I think if it were, it would be on much higher valuations, like Tencent .. But Facebook hasn't really fallen much, and wasn't a huge position .. I *might* buy more on this weakness


That "whalewisdom" site is a very useful one. Thanks!
1 user thanked Alan Selwood for this post.
King Lodos on 21/03/2018(UTC)
Tom Mozy
Posted: 21 March 2018 14:39:07(UTC)
#57

Joined: 09/07/2013(UTC)
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Whale Wisdom is great

I use it to Track Fundsmith, Lindsell Train and Thomas Russo (global value investor)

Its amazing how many dr pepper nick train bought prior to its take over! Also how many mondelez they have bought as well!
1 user thanked Tom Mozy for this post.
King Lodos on 21/03/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 21 March 2018 14:50:42(UTC)
#58

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
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I also tend to follow Chase Coleman (Tiger Global), as a sort of Baillie Gifford style investor
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/tiger-global-management-llc#tabholdings_tab_link

And Stan Druckenmiller
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/duquesne-family-office-llc
Fuzzy Beats
Posted: 24 March 2018 17:48:22(UTC)
#59

Joined: 24/02/2015(UTC)
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King Lodos;59096 wrote:
I also tend to follow Chase Coleman (Tiger Global), as a sort of Baillie Gifford style investor
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/tiger-global-management-llc#tabholdings_tab_link

And Stan Druckenmiller
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/duquesne-family-office-llc

Not forgetting the venerable Sage himself
https://whalewisdom.com/...nc#tabholdings_tab_link

New position initiated in TEVA, the world’s largest generic drugmaker, following a collapse in the share price. A big restructuring required following an expensive acquisition funded by debt.
Dennis .
Posted: 24 March 2018 18:33:30(UTC)
#60

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I presume that everyone has seen the video of the 2017 AGM for Fundsmith? It lasts about 90 mins and quite interesting. However it does worry me sometimes that this is becoming a cult following (remember Madoff?)

https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/tv
1 user thanked Dennis . for this post.
Raj K on 24/03/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 24 March 2018 18:34:02(UTC)
#62

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
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The only problem with Buffett is his investable universe is absolutely tiny.

There are so few stocks he can buy at his size, he's almost certainly had to relax his criteria .. Although I like Apple as a choice .. Most would ignore it because the largest stock in the index is usually a guaranteed underperform – but Apple's possibly almost a contrarian buy .. or it's one of the only places Buffett can put money
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