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Market Correction
King Lodos
Posted: 13 May 2018 16:47:27(UTC)

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
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Theo Shackleton;62224 wrote:
- King: these are definitely not perfect markets. They are warped by all manner of state intervention, including central bank activity. Quantitative easing and rock bottom interest rates have been a more or less permanent regime. It is an utter freak show, and I don't think the normal data can be trusted, or used in the usual ways, whilst this has been the case. Very easy credit. Debasing of currency. This has made assets more attractive and kept many bad firms going. Also increased debt dramatically. I am not optimistic about where this will end. Misallocation of resources on a vast scale. If the central printers manage things very carefully then maybe it'll somehow all work out, but rates do need to go up. What will be the consequences? Also, what other unexpected events might occur in the world.

- What will come of Brexit? What of the EU and single currency debt situation?

- why did the 2015 dip occur?

I just happened to find this article last night, which sums up concerns I have myself... It's from Feb, so somewhat overtaken by events, but some good commentary in there.

https://www.spectator.co...market-crash-we-needed/

I don't mean to argue with anybody here btw. I think a lot of this has to do with the things one trades in, age, personality, philosophy, outlook, life experience. So it's a matter of interpretation, and speculation.


Well plenty of people share these views .. But the question is – and this applies to every hedge fund that profits from outguessing the market – can *you* predict something with more certainty than the market?

The reason they call a bull market 'climbing the wall of worry' is because, there's ALWAYS something to worry about .. Debt, wars, depressions, banks, market manipulation, etc. If stocks ever had a clear path, prices would jump instantly to where they're going.

And the thing with economists is they're TERRIBLE at predicting what these things means and where they go .. Everyone was incredibly negative on QE 3 or 4 years ago – it was seen as a complete failure .. 2014 was a very negative year when it came to crash and doom forecasters .. But then we started to see growth, and markets started rising again.

If you can't deal with this absolute inherent and constant risk of being in stocks, then you should probably be in a different asset class .. The biggest gains from stocks are made from buying or holding when things look bad, and things turning out better than expected .. The profit is the difference between expectation and reality.

Ben Graham said "Never less than 25% in the market; never more than 75%" .. Because no one knows anything with any certainty – so your decisions and asset allocations should reflect probabilities; not certainties .. No matter how good you are at predicting market moves, with all-or-nothing decisions, one day you'll be absolutely wrong.
2 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Slacker on 13/05/2018(UTC), Trudy Scrumptious on 14/05/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 13 May 2018 16:51:01(UTC)

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There are better charts than this – which show that doom forecasts are an absolute constant in stocks – but this is the sort of thing:

https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2017/06/06/Photos/NS/MW-FN842_maierh_20170606145602_NS.png
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Trudy Scrumptious on 14/05/2018(UTC)
CUEBALL
Posted: 13 May 2018 17:24:46(UTC)

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...Like i said a complete comedian ...are you even capable of original thought..?
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Freddy4Skin on 13/05/2018(UTC), Tony Peterson on 13/05/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 13 May 2018 17:43:22(UTC)

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Yes .. on abstract poetry forums .. which is where you should be.
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John Miskelly on 13/05/2018(UTC), Martina on 13/05/2018(UTC), Trudy Scrumptious on 14/05/2018(UTC)
CUEBALL
Posted: 13 May 2018 18:05:12(UTC)

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It's the same old boring repost...thanks for the confirmation
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Tony Peterson on 13/05/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 13 May 2018 18:18:01(UTC)

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All you do is post garbled riddles that make it sound like you know where the price of gold miners is going.

You're annoyed because no one's entertaining your nonsense anymore
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Trudy Scrumptious on 14/05/2018(UTC)
CUEBALL
Posted: 13 May 2018 18:24:25(UTC)

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at last original thought....ha ha....can't recall ever mentioning "gold miners" though..?..never ever invested in the stuff, in fact as you are well aware ..quite the opposite..had too much sun lad?
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Tony Peterson on 13/05/2018(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 13 May 2018 18:26:49(UTC)

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I'm guessing I'm not the only one who doesn't want to get a "New Post Notification" for this crap.
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CUEBALL on 13/05/2018(UTC), chubby bunny on 13/05/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 13 May 2018 18:35:37(UTC)

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My fault .. By exposing Hank / Cueball's nonsense for what it is, there's little else he can contribute
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Trudy Scrumptious on 14/05/2018(UTC)
Tony Peterson
Posted: 13 May 2018 19:03:59(UTC)

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Loddy


My investments have done much much better than your cash withholds - so you are allowing me to cast the first stone. Here it comes....

Have you ever dared to wonder whether, given your impecunious state, you are in any position to "take control" (sic) of discussion forums such as these to pretend that you are a more competent investor than anybody else?
King Lodos
Posted: 13 May 2018 19:12:20(UTC)

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I'm just an amalgam of far greater investors I'm not too proud to keep learning from.

But I know nonsense when I see it .. and Cueball/Hank is a peddler of raw, untreated nonsense, and no amount of maths or quantum mechanics can explain how your returns are as high as you think they are
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Trudy Scrumptious on 14/05/2018(UTC)
Tony Peterson
Posted: 13 May 2018 20:03:34(UTC)

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My investment income is real enough, Loddy. I've the account statements and bank statements to prove it.

You don't believe it is possible because you are desperately trying to get out of penury and into being able to afford the car you covet by reading everything you can find about investment.

You've actually got to do it, rather than spout off about it as if you knew everything.

Which you clearly do not.

You prefer fake news, sneers, quotes, and jibes. And your crayons.

I feel really sorry for you. Especially as you are showing a few signs of growing awareness. Not enough though.
King Lodos
Posted: 13 May 2018 20:37:56(UTC)

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When we calculated what your portfolio would be worth, with your claimed compound returns and average salary contributions, it came to the best part of half a £billion.

You explained this by implying you'd only ever invested about £2,000.

Now however poor you think I am, I've earnt quite a bit more than that over the years, and my stocks do seem to have a bit more of an upward trajectory
Tony Peterson
Posted: 13 May 2018 20:47:45(UTC)

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Loddy

You are one who is crap at mathematics. Try calculating 2000 x 1.17^43 for a more accurate answer (which understates our position but I will not tell you by how much)

Not quite half a billion yet, sadly.

You'll learn.

andy mac
Posted: 13 May 2018 21:31:09(UTC)

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why dont you all take a rest from exchanging insults and get back on topic

Everyone to their own
I want to learn from you all
Sometimes it just seems like any other forum with chavs on winding others up

Shake hands and give it a rest please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
5 users thanked andy mac for this post.
Guest on 14/05/2018(UTC), dyfed on 14/05/2018(UTC), john brace on 14/05/2018(UTC), Aminatidi on 14/05/2018(UTC), Guest on 14/05/2018(UTC)
Tony Peterson
Posted: 13 May 2018 21:33:28(UTC)

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KL

I am still laughing over your last post. Of course you will have already earned rather more than my wife and I ever earned in our entire working lives. We both quit paid employment in 1979.

Neither of us earned in our working lives a total in employment plus self-employment anything in excess of £100K. Yet now we are enjoying the benefits of an income from 12 UK equity holdings each constrained in value between £100k and £250k Plus of course a few bits from smaller holdings.

I( am quite pleased that we have managed this and tried to explain how it can be done. But of course, you know better. You are convinced it cannot be done. So you insist that I am a liar. Which is really funny as we know better than anyone how you make up totally untrue "facts" to suit your arguments.

Yet one fund has managed to outperform us since 1999. You don't advertise them, though..

.
King Lodos
Posted: 13 May 2018 23:23:47(UTC)

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I know people who've done perfectly fine buying FTSE 100 dividend stocks ..

But you claim to have beaten Warren Buffett, and all but 1 of 2,500 UK fund managers since the 70s .. yet the stocks you hold behave like low growth bond proxies – and you don't seem to read company accounts or follow any real investing strategy.

It's one thing making those claims if you'd been early into Apple or Amazon – but holding stocks like Glaxo, Vodafone and Rio Tinto ..? I don't think you're lying – but I think there's an element of miscalculation, and an element of fantasy
2 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Guest on 14/05/2018(UTC), Trudy Scrumptious on 14/05/2018(UTC)
Tony Peterson
Posted: 14 May 2018 05:38:27(UTC)

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You can think what you like, Loddy. I know what I do.
Fell Walker
Posted: 14 May 2018 06:17:29(UTC)

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And they all lived happily ever after.....

The End.
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Aminatidi on 14/05/2018(UTC)
andy mac
Posted: 14 May 2018 06:36:55(UTC)

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so will you both post this one fund

at 12 noon tomorrow Tuesday (BST) you both name that one company and let us all into the secret

Then everyone will be happy, and cuey and hank can do the same if hes back from the brick yard

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