Share this page:
Stay connected:
Welcome to the Citywire Money Forums, where members share investment ideas and discuss everything to do with their money.

You'll need to log in or set up an account to start new discussions or reply to existing ones. See you inside!

Notification

Icon
Error

John Baron Overseas Portfolio
Mickey
Posted: 19 January 2018 14:30:53(UTC)
#1

Joined: 21/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 511

Thanks: 1413 times
Was thanked: 509 time(s) in 251 post(s)
John Baron has today released a new portfolio for 'Overseas', making this 8 portfolios now shown on his website. I'm getting a bit lost with all the choices having hoped for something simple from him, nevertheless, it is interesting to see he has chosen different holdings than he suggests in his 4 seasons range. As an example, he has been touting Templeton Emerging Mkts recently but in the Overseas portfolio, he has JPMorgan Emerging Markets Inc (JEMI) at 6.5% and TEM lower at 5%.

Will take some time to get my head around his reasoning. If anyone else here has seen the list I wonder what you think of the 14 IT's chosen.
Mickey
Posted: 19 January 2018 14:38:28(UTC)
#2

Joined: 21/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 511

Thanks: 1413 times
Was thanked: 509 time(s) in 251 post(s)
Answering my own question, apologies! I see now that the portfolio aim is "portfolio seeks a reasonable level of income and both capital and dividend growth from a portfolio of overseas equities."

That will explain the choices :-)
King Lodos
Posted: 19 January 2018 15:58:54(UTC)
#3

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,341

Thanks: 462 times
Was thanked: 3430 time(s) in 1365 post(s)
I think the growth and income portfolios are all you really need .. There aren't that many good trusts out there, so I'd think 8x portfolios might be spreading the bets a bit thin?


Bonds
New City High Yield (NCYF) 6.5%
UK Shares
Finsbury Growth & Income (FGT) 5.5%
Standard Life Equity Inc Trust (SLET) 5.0%
The Merchants Trust (MRCH) 5.0%
Henderson Smaller Cos (HSL) 4.5%
Chelverton Small Cos Div Trust (SDV) 4.0%
JPMorgan Mid Cap (JMF) 3.5%
Dunedin Smaller Cos (DNDL) 3.0%
Oryx International Growth Fund (OIG) 3.0%
International Shares
Templeton Emerging Markets (TEM) 5.0%
Henderson Far East Income (HFEL) 4.5%
European Assets Trust (EAT) 4.0%
North American Income Trust (NAIT) 4.0%
JPMorgan Japan Smaller Cos (JPS) 3.5%
Edinburgh Worldwide (EWI) 3.5%
Themes
International Biotechnology Trust (IBT) 4.0%
Bluefield Solar Income Fund (BSIF) 3.5%
Herald (HRI) 3.5%
Standard Life Private Equity (SLPE) 3.0%
Golden Prospect Precious Metals (GPM) 2.5%
Riverstone Energy (RSE) 2.5%
Allianz Technology Trust (ATT) 2.5%
Commercial property
TR Property (TRY) 4.5%
Standard Life Property Inc (SLI) 3.5%

Cash 6.0%
Total 100%


Income Portfolio

Bonds
New City High Yield (NCYF) 7.0%
Invesco Perpetual Enhanced Inc (IPE) 6.0%
TwentyFour Select Monthly Inc (SMIF) 3.5%
UK Shares
Standard Life Equity Inc Trust (SLET) 5.5%
The Merchants Trust (MRCH) 5.5%
JPMorgan Mid Cap (JMIF) 5.0%
Acorn Income Fund (AIF) 4.0%
Aberdeen Smaller Cos Inc (ASCI) 4.0%
Shires Income (SHRS) 3.0%
International Shares
European Assets Trust (EAT) 5.5%
Henderson Far East Inc (HFEL) 4.5%
North American Income Trust (NAIT) 3.5%
JPMorgan Japanese (JFJ) 3.0%
Themes
HICL Infrastructure Company (HICL) 5.5%
Bluefield Solar Income Fund (BSIF) 4.5%
City Natural Resources (CYN) 4.0%
Utilico Emerging Markets (UEM) 3.5%
Allianz Technology Trust (ATT) 2.5%
International Biotechnology Trust (IBT) 2.5%
Commercial property
Standard Life Property Inc (SLI) 5.5%
F&C UK Real Estate Investment (FCRE) 3.5%
Regional REIT (RGL) 3.0%

Cash 6.0%
Total 100%
7 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
halfinchnut on 19/01/2018(UTC), Tim D on 19/01/2018(UTC), Alan M on 19/01/2018(UTC), North Star on 20/01/2018(UTC), bryaz on 20/01/2018(UTC), what me, worry? on 20/01/2018(UTC), Mike L on 20/01/2018(UTC)
Mickey
Posted: 19 January 2018 16:04:34(UTC)
#4

Joined: 21/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 511

Thanks: 1413 times
Was thanked: 509 time(s) in 251 post(s)
Not sure I agree with you there KL. For example, the Spring portfolio recognises the lower investment amount as you start your journey and holds far fewer than either of those two offerings.
King Lodos
Posted: 19 January 2018 16:30:46(UTC)
#5

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,341

Thanks: 462 times
Was thanked: 3430 time(s) in 1365 post(s)
Well that could be an idea.

Otherwise if you took those portfolio, and just had a cut-off point (say only holding the top 30% of funds in each group by weighting) you could adapt them for smaller investors.
1 user thanked King Lodos for this post.
Mickey on 19/01/2018(UTC)
Keith Cobby
Posted: 19 January 2018 16:39:58(UTC)
#6

Joined: 07/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 466

Thanks: 277 times
Was thanked: 722 time(s) in 289 post(s)
Some overlap between growth and income portfolios. He has too many funds and trades too much - not enough conviction.

What would interest me is which investments are in his own portfolio.
6 users thanked Keith Cobby for this post.
Mickey on 19/01/2018(UTC), JohnW on 19/01/2018(UTC), Tim D on 19/01/2018(UTC), Alan M on 19/01/2018(UTC), Freddy4Skin on 19/01/2018(UTC), what me, worry? on 20/01/2018(UTC)
Chris Howland
Posted: 19 January 2018 17:02:29(UTC)
#7

Joined: 19/08/2017(UTC)
Posts: 24

Thanks: 60 times
Was thanked: 34 time(s) in 13 post(s)
Keith Cobby;55658 wrote:


What would interest me is which investments are in his own portfolio.


As I recall, he does state that he has "an interest" in all the IT in the portfolios... My guess would be that he owns some of all of them, but not in the cumulative amounts you might expect.

I agree he trades too much - I have tried a few times to fathom his buy/sell logic via his monthly updates in IC, however these are either too cryptic, brexit infected, or simply uninformative b*****ks.

The original four seasons portfolios were all that was needed. The other's are just tinkering for the sake of it.


Chris
King Lodos
Posted: 19 January 2018 17:05:49(UTC)
#8

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,341

Thanks: 462 times
Was thanked: 3430 time(s) in 1365 post(s)
I'd assume you'd hold either the income or growth portfolio, depending on your aim.

Presumably you could do the same thing with an efficient frontiers model – if you fed it the data from a range of good ITs (once you filter out excessive premiums and risks), it could find optimal weightings for any outcome .. IFAs often use these, as do institutional investors – it's why they often wind up with 50+ holdings, because efficient frontiers really looks for an optimum point between risk and return, and so it will want to diversify a lot.

If you play with these, they might say the optimum portfolio has 0.1% in European Convertible Bonds – because mathematically (based on past data) that might be true .. But of course with something as chaotic as the markets, you could say anything below a 5% weighting is likely just noise
Money Spider
Posted: 19 January 2018 18:34:17(UTC)
#9

Joined: 11/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 104

Thanks: 44 times
Was thanked: 183 time(s) in 70 post(s)
Presumably, from what I have read, he intends each individual portfolio to fit a particular person at a particular time in their life. Hence the 'Seasons' analogy where he envisages someone progressing from 'Spring' to 'Winter' over their lifetime. You would either have just one of these portfolios, or be transitioning from one to the next. That is all pretty straightforward.

I presume that the other portfolios are intend to fit other scenarios and should therefore be seen as 'standalone'.

Some components my differ because the ITs are bought at different times. For example, TEM might have been the most attractive (price/discount) last summer, but something else JEMI? is perhaps more attractive today (the 'Overseas' portfolio has only just been created, I understand). It possibly also depends upon the mix of the other ITs in any one portfolio. For example, is a bit more yield desired at the expense of, say price?
1 user thanked Money Spider for this post.
Mickey on 19/01/2018(UTC)
Mickey
Posted: 19 January 2018 18:39:24(UTC)
#10

Joined: 21/06/2010(UTC)
Posts: 511

Thanks: 1413 times
Was thanked: 509 time(s) in 251 post(s)
Money Spider;55667 wrote:
It possibly also depends upon the mix of the other ITs in any one portfolio. For example, is a bit more yield desired at the expense of, say price?

Yes, it is seeking yield with some growth from overseas holdings. Now that I have had time to properly look at it the difference is obvious.
kWIKSAVE
Posted: 19 January 2018 20:26:55(UTC)
#11

Joined: 14/08/2013(UTC)
Posts: 378

Thanks: 97 times
Was thanked: 312 time(s) in 201 post(s)
My 2 week free trial for JB portfolios ends soon.

Not too keen on his portfolios.

Not really a big fan of IT's.
Joe Soap
Posted: 20 January 2018 04:01:32(UTC)
#13

Joined: 24/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 541

Thanks: 84 times
Was thanked: 165 time(s) in 107 post(s)
Too much churn, too many portfolios, no conviction.......... Come on, what do you expect from a bloke selling a tip sheet? If his tip sheet every month simply said "this month we will do nothing", then how many people would keep buying it? For me, it is simple. The person making the most money out of tips sheets is always the author. I have little time for them at all.
3 users thanked Joe Soap for this post.
Keith Cobby on 20/01/2018(UTC), Tim D on 21/01/2018(UTC), Guest on 21/01/2018(UTC)
Colin Reed
Posted: 20 January 2018 10:02:32(UTC)
#14

Joined: 03/02/2015(UTC)
Posts: 3

Thanks: 3 times
kWIKSAVE

Would you be so kind as to share the composition currently within the Winter Portfolio?
Keith Cobby
Posted: 20 January 2018 10:42:58(UTC)
#16

Joined: 07/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 466

Thanks: 277 times
Was thanked: 722 time(s) in 289 post(s)
I prefer to read about what investors do with their own money (eg John Lee) rather than tipping as Joe says.
2 users thanked Keith Cobby for this post.
Joe Soap on 20/01/2018(UTC), Tim D on 21/01/2018(UTC)
t s
Posted: 20 January 2018 10:49:32(UTC)
#15

Joined: 03/03/2016(UTC)
Posts: 14

Thanks: 6 times
Was thanked: 13 time(s) in 6 post(s)
Colin Reed;55680 wrote:
kWIKSAVE

Would you be so kind as to share the composition currently within the Winter Portfolio?


The Winter portfolio
Background
The Winter portfolio further pursues the principle of diversification given the investment journey is in its final phase. The objective is also to generate a higher income than that generated by the Autumn portfolio - and one that will modestly grow over time.

Accordingly, the portfolio’s bond exposure rises, with the emphasis remaining on corporate bonds. The remaining equity element, including the ‘thematic’ holdings, assist with diversification whilst producing a high and growing income. The portfolio's yield is given on the Rationale page.

All holdings and weightings (to the nearest ½%) given in the ‘Breakdown’ below are updated on the day a portfolio change is made and at the end of each month - the date is confirmed (in brackets). The relevant stock market ‘Ticker’ code is given next to each holding.

Breakdown (to 3 January 2018)
Bonds
New City High Yield (NCYF) 8.0%
Invesco Perpetual Enhanced Inc (IPE) 7.0%
TwentyFour Select Monthly Inc (SMIF) 6.0%
Henderson Diversified Income (HDIV) 5.5%
UK Shares
Shires Income (SHRS) 6.5%
The Merchants Trust (MRCH) 5.0%
International Shares
European Assets Trust (EAT) 6.0%
Henderson Far East Income (HFEL) 5.0%
Themes
HICL Infrastructure Company (HICL) 7.5%
Bluefield Solar Income Fund (BSIF) 7.0%
John Laing Environmental Assets (JLEN) 6.5%
SQN Asset Finance Inc Fund (SQN) 4.5%
Commercial Property
Standard Life Property Income (SLI) 8.0%
Regional REIT (RGL) 6.5%
AEW UK REIT (AEWU) 5.0%

Cash 6.0%
Total 100%
3 users thanked t s for this post.
Colin Reed on 20/01/2018(UTC), Mike L on 21/01/2018(UTC), Alan M on 21/01/2018(UTC)
Antony A
Posted: 26 January 2018 15:45:29(UTC)
#12

Joined: 02/09/2013(UTC)
Posts: 15

Was thanked: 39 time(s) in 12 post(s)
kWIKSAVE;55673 wrote:
My 2 week free trial for JB portfolios ends soon.

Not too keen on his portfolios.

Not really a big fan of IT's.



I'm probably too late, but can you share the current state of play with the Spring and Thematic portfolios?

I've been tracking these in dummy Trustnet portfolios for about three years, partly through JB's IC column, though he doesn't cover Spring and Thematic in Investor's Chronicle so my versions will be about a year out of date as I haven't had a trial of his website in that time.

The performance is distributed as you'd expect, i.e. the Winter portfolio is very safe and cranks out income, but has a poorer overall capital return, and the Autumn/Income one is the next worst performer if you are looking for growth.

Interestingly, the Spring and Thematic portfolios have significantly outperformed the Summer/Growth one over 5 years, especially since spring 2016: 140-150% compared to 75% with the Growth portfolio. The FE Risk Scores, for what they're worth, are, in order, 92, 87 and 69, against the benchmark of the FTSE Private Investor Growth (Trustnet doesn't offer the WMA Growth benchmark used by Baron, but he comments that they have very similar historical asset allocation weightings).

I agree that "portfolio proliferation" diminishes the effectiveness of what JB is offering: I thought the Spring through Winter idea was a useful one, and the Thematic, but the Dividend one seems to replicate the aim of the Autumn and Winter ones. This new Overseas one is hard to understand: doesn't this run against everything JB says about keeping a balanced global portfolio? Why exclude the UK?

Perhaps he feels the need to introduce new concepts to justify the high price charged for access to his site. which in my view is prohibitively high. However I think it's much too harsh to criticise him for "selling a tipsheet": his Investor's Chronicle fee has always been donated to charity and I don't believe he makes any money from discussing and publicising these portfolios. I think his main aim is to promote investment trusts as an appropriate vehicle for private investors, something he genuinely believes in.
1 user thanked Antony A for this post.
Andrew Smith 259 on 31/01/2018(UTC)
+ Reply to discussion

Markets

Other markets