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Stocks for 2018
Jeff Liddiard
Posted: 27 December 2017 15:11:43(UTC)
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Mr J

Very well put!

Deserves more than just a 'Thank You'

So what do we do?

Who do we lobby?
Milo Don
Posted: 27 December 2017 17:01:27(UTC)
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I am not familiar with the specific term "poka yoke", but I am familiar with tamper-proof caps for bottles of toxic or caustic substances.
They are invariably made from rigid plastic...
And they don't self-destruct precisely so that they carry out the purpose for which they were designed. Most packaging has to be durable, otherwise there isn't much point in using it. You can't have paint pots or ketchup bottles dissolving in the store.

We already have what is in effect a tax on non-recycable and non-biodegrables in the landfill tax. The tax on plastic bags is very successful though - because there is a ready alternative available (thicker plastic bags, cotton bags, nylon bags etc).

Most people in the UK go quite a lot of trouble to sort their recyclables, whereas 30 years ago it was unheard of because there was no option to recycle, nor the widespread understanding of why anyone should, so it is evident humans can become waste sifters.
I can not speak for other countries.

But all this is rather tangential discussion. Since RPC does manufacture biodegradable containers for certain FMCG, launched this year after working with BASF, you can see that some manufacturers are already finding solutions without government interference. These are the sorts of innovations that could be developed for more durable requirements.
There is a company (in the USA) developing what is essentially (fairly) rigid packaging from fungus too.
2 users thanked Milo Don for this post.
Micawber on 28/12/2017(UTC), colin overton on 20/01/2018(UTC)
chubby bunny
Posted: 27 December 2017 18:06:32(UTC)
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Around 9.5 million tonnes of plastic enter the ocean each year and this is only expected to increase as living standards improve in Africa and Asia. Up to a quarter of that is micro/nanoplastic, almost two thirds of which is generated by the washing of synthetic fabrics (e.g. your yoga pants/quick drying outdoor fleece) and the physical abrasion of automobile tyres through driving. Microplastics can adsorb environmental toxins and accumulate in our food chain. Even sea salt contains plastic!

There's only so much that the environmentally conscious consumer can practically do. Washing machines aren't able to filter microplastics from the waste water, and currently the only option is to wash your synthetic clothing inside a special bag. Even then the plastic fluff just ends up in landfill. You can reduce your tyre wear, but you still have to drive.

We are a plastic society. Most paper tea bags are 25% plastic unless they use a metal staple for sealing. Polystyrene packing peanuts are still prevalent and being sent to landfill despite being relatively easy to recycle and the availability of biodegradable alternatives. Does the UK even have the infrastructure to process all of our recycling now that China is refusing to be the world's rubbish bin?
4 users thanked chubby bunny for this post.
Tim D on 27/12/2017(UTC), bill xxxx on 27/12/2017(UTC), Mr J on 27/12/2017(UTC), Fiona D. on 17/01/2018(UTC)
Milo Don
Posted: 27 December 2017 19:15:18(UTC)
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Anyway, back to stocks for 2018 - three for your consideration:
AV - perennial under-performer that appears finally to be making some progress.
PLP - I'm afraid their plastic water pipes aren't biodegradable but they are very useful
ITM - finally getting a few orders in. JCB influence showing hopeful signs?
2 users thanked Milo Don for this post.
john_r on 28/12/2017(UTC), Sara G on 28/12/2017(UTC)
john_r
Posted: 27 December 2017 22:58:11(UTC)
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Thank you Milo for escaping the plastic vortex and showing us your stock favorites.
For myself, I'm looking more at copper as a 'possible' future momemtum play. I already have a sizeable KAZ stake and today added ANTO to hopefully get more of last years performance as well as a new modest stake in CAML. My reasoning is that copper will just grow in demand as we move to a more electric world. Electric vehicles for starters. I see it as electricians gold.
My diversification is simply for geographical and political dilution.

Your ITM choice is an interesting one and I will give it more attention from here on as Shell and a few car manufacturers are obviously taking hydrogen power seriously. Upto now though I have felt ITM are years from making profitable earnings and history tells me that whenever I dabble with a small company (usually less than £100 MCap) then I always end up regretting it. Yes, ITM is just over that threshhold but I am still smarting from my last folly with AHR (Action Hotels).
I share your view over AV in that it appears to be doing something right under its new leadership plus a handy 5% yield as a cushion. I recently read that share buy backs may also be in the offing - another good sign.
Other co's I am considering right now are ...
WOOD GROUP (top up)
NXG (top up)
Derwent London - but I may have already missed the dip
BT (top up) - another nice dividend cushion.
Glencore (new purchase).
Sold Berkeley Group and Halma recently as both looking rather peaky, though with luck a pull back down the road may let me back in.


King Lodos
Posted: 28 December 2017 13:03:50(UTC)
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I've got a 'fun money' account I'm trying a new tack with.

– Half the account's in 3x ETFs, following monthly trends, systematic;
– Half's in a handful of quality stocks to buy and hold.

The ETFs this month have been US Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare.

The first stock pick is Diageo .. Looking to add Johnson & Johnson and Microsoft.


Hoping to find 6x stocks .. Most seem to be looking at annual returns of between 5 and 6% (based on FCF growth) – and similar on PE .. Unilever got a little expensive, but I'd be looking for a point to buy .. I may go for two slightly more off-the-radar stocks
1 user thanked King Lodos for this post.
Bellabeck on 13/01/2018(UTC)
jvl
Posted: 28 December 2017 15:07:07(UTC)
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Monthly trends? You've said a few times* there is no reliable prediction of a trend just based on a month.





*Some months you mention it a lot but the next month you don't bring it up at all...
Joe Soap
Posted: 28 December 2017 16:14:18(UTC)
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This might be one for 2019 rather than 2018. But take a serious look at HUR, Hurricane Energy. A multi bagger by mid 2019 in my book.
King Lodos
Posted: 28 December 2017 17:07:30(UTC)
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jvl;54653 wrote:
Monthly trends? You've said a few times* there is no reliable prediction of a trend just based on a month.

*Some months you mention it a lot but the next month you don't bring it up at all...


No I don't base the measurement of a trend on just a month (although the short-term term is useful combined with the long-term trend), but the trend doesn't typically tell you much beyond a month.

So this month's themes were clearly about Trump's tax package, but I've no idea what next month's will be (I'd imagine there's a good chance they're the same – possibly Japan replacing Healthcare) – but at some point momentum becomes mean reversion, so you have to keep moving
Don't Know Enough
Posted: 29 December 2017 08:03:36(UTC)
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Admiral - Car Insurance -Growth and divedends

Sattelite Solutions Worldwide -AIM - Long term growth

ITV - Media -Growth and divedends

2018 Profit makers
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Sara G on 29/12/2017(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 29 December 2017 11:44:17(UTC)
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I'm not sure about Admiral, or indeed most car / home insurance companies as the market is highly competitive on price with seemingly low barriers to entry given the number of providers.

I'm currently reviewing Aviva, LGEN and PRU with a view to buying one of them for my 'Tony Peterson' share pf (which currently consists of BP, BT and GSK):

AV.: lots of cash available following the streamlining of the business, so scope for the dividend to grow (currently 4.62%) but some concerns over how they might spend it. Arguably the most undervalued of the three following years of relative under-performance.

LGEN: P/E 12.17, yield 5.28%. Strong growth prospects including significant exposure to the rise of passive investing through its index trackers - although this might be more of a drag in a market downturn, meaning its fortunes are perhaps more tied to the wider market than the others?

PRU: Lower yield than the others - 2.3%, but this is more of a growth play than the others due to the prospects in Asia in particular. P/E 14.3 may mean it is still undervalued.
6 users thanked Sara G for this post.
Don't Know Enough on 29/12/2017(UTC), Lemanie on 29/12/2017(UTC), Jeff Liddiard on 29/12/2017(UTC), Tim D on 29/12/2017(UTC), gillyann on 30/12/2017(UTC), I predict a riot on 07/01/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 30 December 2017 12:05:59(UTC)
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Interesting looking at total returns from UK stocks .. Glaxo has *not* been a good investment, certainly since 1997 – yet remains popular .. In fact it would've been a drag on a FTSE 100 tracker.

You could almost say there's a form of momentum in long-term returns, as strong returns early on seem predictive of returns in general – of course that's down to these being profitable businesses

https://i.imgur.com/UZF5YRT.png
4 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
gillyann on 30/12/2017(UTC), john_r on 01/01/2018(UTC), Dian on 07/01/2018(UTC), J Thomas on 07/01/2018(UTC)
Dian
Posted: 07 January 2018 02:12:57(UTC)
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Top performers for 2017

For Europe: Austria, Denmark, Italy, and France

For emerging and frontier Europe: Poland, Hungary, Greece and Czech Republic

Asian top winners for 2017: China, South Korea, India, Vietnam, Philippine,Thailand and Hong Kong

American winners: Argentina, Chile, Peru, Brazil and the USA

Overall there were winners in developed markets, emerging, frontier markets and overlooked markets in 2017.

Can we still expect a strong equity market rally in 2018 at least for value stocks and overlooked markets? Only time will tell.
1 user thanked Dian for this post.
gillyann on 07/01/2018(UTC)
Tug Boat
Posted: 07 January 2018 10:00:06(UTC)
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My recent purchases are:

RGL
BLND
SEQI
JLIF
CLDN
TFG
FCPT

A lot of property, some cheap infrastructure, super cali which suddenly got cheap and TFG.

I think this says I am not confident in mainstream equities this year, or my elephant isn't.

There, I stand naked before you all.
2 users thanked Tug Boat for this post.
Mickey on 07/01/2018(UTC), Tim D on 07/01/2018(UTC)
Dian
Posted: 13 January 2018 02:17:38(UTC)
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Frontier markets:
Historically, the Argentina Stock Market (MERVAL) reached an all-time high of 32719.70 in January of 2018. It also was an overlooked stock market in the world. Only time will tell whether their market will continue to go up further. In my opinion not all frontier, developed or emerging markets will do well equally even for 2018/19.

http://home.bt.com/lifes...-markets-11364242421240

UK Stocks:
If I am right following stocks are some of the worst performers over the last 12 months. I prefer this category more than over stretched stocks. Could they be 2018’s biggest winners? I think there is an overlooked play in the market.

ITV(Media)
SSE(Utility)
GlaxoSmithKline(Health)
Next (Retail)
Centrica(Utility)
BT(Telco/media)
WPP(Media)
Mediclinic (Health)
1 user thanked Dian for this post.
redriff on 18/01/2018(UTC)
Joe Soap
Posted: 13 January 2018 03:15:02(UTC)
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Nobody watching Hurricane Energy (HUR)? Up 50% this year so far. Lots more to come in this multi bagger.
Mr Helpful
Posted: 13 January 2018 11:39:12(UTC)
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BRCI (Commodities Income) continues to climb, while still IMHO remaining fair value.
Bellabeck
Posted: 13 January 2018 11:49:30(UTC)
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King Lodos;54643 wrote:
I've got a 'fun money' account I'm trying a new tack with.

– Half the account's in 3x ETFs, following monthly trends, systematic;
– Half's in a handful of quality stocks to buy and hold.

The ETFs this month have been US Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare.

The first stock pick is Diageo .. Looking to add Johnson & Johnson and Microsoft.


Hoping to find 6x stocks .. Most seem to be looking at annual returns of between 5 and 6% (based on FCF growth) – and similar on PE .. Unilever got a little expensive, but I'd be looking for a point to buy .. I may go for two slightly more off-the-radar stocks


Hi can you indicate which ETFs you have gone for in this fun portfolio?
King Lodos
Posted: 13 January 2018 12:15:36(UTC)
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It will change monthly – and to me these look fairly overbought, so I'd be more likely to take profits on any price weakness now, and the volatility is quite likely to put me in different ETFs next month (I'd predict broader things: EAFE, FTSE World, VWO).

But this is a good example of when it makes sense to trade momentum – the green line is where I bought in .. and really all you'd be looking to do is make an average 1-2% gain each month (for 12-24% annual returns):

– EWJ (Japan index) bought at the beginning of January.
– XLY (Consumer Discretionary) bought at beginning of December.
– FCSS (China) I wouldn't normally hold this .. I've been burnt by investment trusts because price moves are less predictable .. My algorithm told me EM index, but I kept hold of FCSS as a leveraged play on that trade.

https://i.imgur.com/wQptLaE.jpg
1 user thanked King Lodos for this post.
Guest on 17/01/2018(UTC)
Jim S
Posted: 17 January 2018 12:25:24(UTC)
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Anyone have a view on Toople or know much about it?
Seems like a minnow (2 million mkt cap!), announcement today suggest its growth strategy seems to be working
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