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What's happening to Blue Prism?
cliff aner
Posted: 28 January 2018 18:24:31(UTC)
#21

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I think i was gob smacked first and then had a chuckle at the ton of dumb money line.My guess is that a ton of dumb money is probably not 'that' dumb,and the early investors did very well.I was very unimpressed by the IT 'experts' on that forum and the general quality of the posts.
2 users thanked cliff aner for this post.
J Thomas on 28/01/2018(UTC), laang lee on 11/03/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 29 January 2018 01:11:23(UTC)
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I'd still be careful with this kind of company, that you know something of the software and unfiltered industry opinion of it.

I can't say history always repeats, but when dot.com companies were being bid up, it took a good 5 years for people to realise many of them were little more than undeveloped ideas with words like "Hypernet" in their titles – such was the demand to invest in 'disruptors'.

I'm nowhere near researched enough to give good analysis, but my feeling would be that companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google offer more cloud-based AI and automation solutions .. Adobe and Autodesk add AI-based features .. It becomes something that spreads outwards in the form of more sophisticated tools within existing structures .. Like Blockchain, I think people expect some kind of sweeping revolution – I think it's going to feel more like a gradual series of software updates
3 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Tim D on 29/01/2018(UTC), J Thomas on 29/01/2018(UTC), laang lee on 11/03/2018(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 29 January 2018 11:31:34(UTC)
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King Lodos;56061 wrote:
It becomes something that spreads outwards in the form of more sophisticated tools within existing structures ... I think it's going to feel more like a gradual series of software updates


Indeed the end-game for most small software companies seems to be either:

  • One of the established big boys buys you up and your SW gets incorporated into their platform under their brand.
    Or:
  • One of the big boys develops good-enough copycat features and there's no reason for anyone to buy your product and you go bust.


Which one happens can be influenced by how much of a moat the small company has established through patents, and how many users they've already amassed (significant numbers of "eyeballs" and "bums on seats" - and the data derived from them - can be as important a factor as "advanced technology"; depends how much the market is thought to be saturated though... if only 1% of the potential market has been reached so far existing users can be thrown to the wolves... if it's 50%, you probably want to be more careful not to piss off the existing userbase).

I don't know much about Blue Prism but if it is "office automation" you'd have to be concerned with things like "what'd happen if the next version of MS Office just had this stuff built in for free" and there must be some sort of valuation cap related to the price it'd cost to develop the tech and customer base from scratch. I note a cursory search for Blue Prism patents (in another thread here IIRC) didn't turn up anything particularly convincing. I'm also wary of stories of software which "demos well"... warts-and-all case studies of successful real-world deployments would be far more interesting if there are any.
4 users thanked Tim D for this post.
cliff aner on 29/01/2018(UTC), J Thomas on 29/01/2018(UTC), King Lodos on 29/01/2018(UTC), laang lee on 11/03/2018(UTC)
J Thomas
Posted: 29 January 2018 23:00:49(UTC)
#24

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Looking at the blue chip client base of Blue Prism including the major global accountancy firms, banks, and consumer staples such as Coca-Cola,; I really don't believe these companies would be buying and renewing the expensive software unless it was beneficial for their business now and in the future, why on Earth would they?
However I have sold today at £13.80 the original capital I invested into PRSM, leaving the profits still invested. This is still a substantial amount, of what is now effectively free money and I am content as always to risk profits far more than capital.
I still see a highly profitable future for Blue Prism which I continue to share in.
The sale proceeds are going into my SIPP for my annual pension contribution, split between Fundsmith Equity, Standard Life My Folio III (mainly for gilt and bond exposure), and SMT.

3 users thanked J Thomas for this post.
King Lodos on 29/01/2018(UTC), Tim D on 29/01/2018(UTC), laang lee on 11/03/2018(UTC)
S_M
Posted: 30 January 2018 05:51:32(UTC)
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A few interesting points been made on the thread over the last few days. Here is my two penneth.

Firstly, Blue Prism bears no comparison to any tech firm during the .com boom. It offers solutions as J Thomas has indicated that have been taken up by many blue chip companies. Why have these companies not engaged in the offerings that Google, Microsoft or anyone else in the AI/robotics world offer? Perhaps Blue Prism as a specialist in this field has gained a first mover advantage, I do not know, but check this article out which addresses the replication of their software.

http://www.proactiveinve...tware-robot-123849.html

Secondly, Blue Prism has signed strategic partnerships with KPMG, EY, IBM, Cap Gemini and Deloittes amongst many other organisations that offer tailored solutions for RPA technology to their customers. Again, why would any of these companies jump into bed with Blue Prism if they felt the barriers to entry in this market are low. Having all of these outsourcing companies promoting Blue Prism software, is like having an amplified sales force without the overheads.

http://www.blueprism.com/partners

As I stated in a previous post a £40m placing was snapped up by the institutions @ £12.60 within an hour of the results being posted. That underpins the current valuation of the shares in my opinion, and gives the company the opportunity to expand into the lucrative Asian market.

Turnover has quadrupled over the last 2 years, and the RPA market is expected to grow from less than $500m last year to over $5bn within the next 5-7 years. Blue Prism current market share is around 10%, so there is plenty of room to grow.

There is a place for companies like PRSM within a balanced portfolio, but my strategy is not to invest more than 2% of my portfolio in this type of company. That's why I haven't put tens of thousands of pounds into this stock, but am sitting on some healthy gains so far. I am in for the long run come what may, but think this is one stock that is more likely to be bought by one of the major US tech firms, rather than have its technology replicated. I do think the smart money got in at sub £5 though.
9 users thanked S_M for this post.
J Thomas on 30/01/2018(UTC), Mickey on 30/01/2018(UTC), Slacker on 30/01/2018(UTC), lynne shaffer on 30/01/2018(UTC), Tim D on 30/01/2018(UTC), Vince. on 30/01/2018(UTC), PabloMartini on 30/01/2018(UTC), cliff aner on 30/01/2018(UTC), laang lee on 11/03/2018(UTC)
S_M
Posted: 01 February 2018 18:24:23(UTC)
#26

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Just to add to my last post, further institutional buying of the stock by Old Mutual taking their stake to nearly 20% in the company, which is now valued at £1bn following a 10% rise over the last two sessions.

https://www.stockopedia....com:20180130:nRSd3617Da/
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laang lee on 11/03/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 01 February 2018 22:37:50(UTC)
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I don't know enough about the sector to have an opinion on this company.

The comparison I'd perhaps make with dot.com companies is that at one time a website offered a similar promise of automation .. Rather than shop floors, cashiers and distribution, a website can be a whole shopping centre serving a global audience – for less than the cost of a London parking space.

While this has been a revolution, it's not web design or web hosting firms that became the Microsofts and Apples of this era .. While they've been at the centre, price-competition meant their services got cheaper, rather than their businesses getting larger.

I'd imagine Blue Prism goes one of two ways: competition from other players heats up once they become profitable .. Or they get bought up .. Do they scale up to become a very large company? I'm not sure – 17 years in and still not profitable.

So if getting bought up is the best case for shareholders, it comes down to whether the valuation is right .. Nearly £1bn? That's what their intellectual property has to be worth

2 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
J Thomas on 03/02/2018(UTC), laang lee on 11/03/2018(UTC)
S_M
Posted: 09 March 2018 09:55:29(UTC)
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Shares now on a tear hovering around £17, I can't see any news filtering through although some chartists on another forum are quoting £30+ by the end of this year. Old Mutual hold nearly 20% of the shares now.
3 users thanked S_M for this post.
c brown on 09/03/2018(UTC), cliff aner on 10/03/2018(UTC), laang lee on 11/03/2018(UTC)
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan)
Posted: 09 March 2018 12:21:28(UTC)
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I'm near Newton le willows this afternoon ...i'll call in and ask
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan)
Posted: 10 March 2018 09:23:46(UTC)
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Apologies for the delay...couldn't get anywhere near the place.... swarming with Daleks..

"chartist's!..really?...just enjoy the ride.





























EXTERMINATE!..EXTERMINATE!
Bob Obama
Posted: 10 March 2018 14:27:40(UTC)
#32

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In regards to Blue Prism being able to scale into a larger company and not being profitable for 17 years is myopic to a degree. The company just came public a little more than a year ago, signaling the time was here. 17 years ago near the dot.com bust this idea was as far fetched as star trek was. It has only been the last few years where technology, AI, robotics, have made this a reality. Years ago you could have just called thus company a think tank of ideas. Going forward though is really all that matters, I don't know what the future holds either as a standalone or a subsidiary of a larger firm. But the longer they innovate and disrupt by taking market share the higher the probability investors will reap a nice return. I think the journey here in RPA space is just coming of age and think Blue Prism was way ahead of its time has come. Enjoy the ride, wherever it goes.
S_M
Posted: 10 March 2018 19:11:46(UTC)
#33

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Does anyone have a clue what Hank is going on about ;0).
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan)
Posted: 10 March 2018 19:22:17(UTC)
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N-le-W is the HQ .... a Dalek is a robot off doctor who...a sense of humour transplant is what you need
1 user thanked Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan) for this post.
Luca Brasi on 11/03/2018(UTC)
Alan Selwood
Posted: 10 March 2018 21:54:44(UTC)
#39

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Now all is clear, then.

Like Scotch mist......
King Lodos
Posted: 10 March 2018 23:30:12(UTC)
#34

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S_M;58509 wrote:
Does anyone have a clue what Hank is going on about ;0).


There's a hedge fund analytics dept. at Blue Crest working on nothing but decoding them – some think they may be communicating insider knowledge.

Best guess so far is they're extracts from an unreleased James Joyce novel
S_M
Posted: 11 March 2018 07:47:29(UTC)
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Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan);58511 wrote:
N-le-W is the HQ .... a Dalek is a robot off doctor who...a sense of humour transplant is what you need


HO is in South Africa old boy. UK offices are in Soton and the City of London.

Not sure anything is in Scouse Land.

And yes I know what a Dalek is, and a sense of humour, well a funny one at least ;).
Captain Slugwash
Posted: 11 March 2018 09:37:08(UTC)
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S_M;58519 wrote:
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan);58511 wrote:
N-le-W is the HQ .... a Dalek is a robot off doctor who...a sense of humour transplant is what you need


HO is in South Africa old boy. UK offices are in Soton and the City of London.

Not sure anything is in Scouse Land.

And yes I know what a Dalek is, and a sense of humour, well a funny one at least ;).


Technically, N-le-W is in PieLand, but it is definitely there.
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Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan) on 11/03/2018(UTC)
Reorganising my Portfolio
Posted: 11 March 2018 09:48:59(UTC)
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From his first posts you could clearly see Hank
had a slate of his roof.
How you guys have corresponded with him at all
baffles me.
S_M
Posted: 11 March 2018 11:58:21(UTC)
#38

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Captain Slugwash;58523 wrote:
S_M;58519 wrote:
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan);58511 wrote:
N-le-W is the HQ .... a Dalek is a robot off doctor who...a sense of humour transplant is what you need


HO is in South Africa old boy. UK offices are in Soton and the City of London.

Not sure anything is in Scouse Land.

And yes I know what a Dalek is, and a sense of humour, well a funny one at least ;).


Technically, N-le-W is in PieLand, but it is definitely there.


Apparently, there's a Spar(as in the supermarket) in Newton Le Willows...........
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Bob Obama on 11/03/2018(UTC)
Tony Peterson
Posted: 11 March 2018 15:18:39(UTC)
#41

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I would suggest some of you look up the LSE's company information about Blue Prism

It supports the Yank.

2 users thanked Tony Peterson for this post.
Luca Brasi on 11/03/2018(UTC), Captain Slugwash on 11/03/2018(UTC)
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