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CNA - Opportunity?
Posted: 13 October 2017 07:50:24(UTC)

Joined: 14/11/2016(UTC)
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Just wondering if anyone is taking a look at Centrica. It's current price and yield is attractive - but is the prospect of significant political interference worth the risk? I'm not too bothered by the current government rhetoric, more about JC should there be an election on the back of a Tory disintegration over Europe.
Captain Slugwash
Posted: 13 October 2017 08:40:46(UTC)

Joined: 19/07/2017(UTC)
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I will be making another 10% top up today (I prefer adding after going ex-div), and Tony P has admitted to doing so in another thread.

I think a recovery is likely in the short term, but like yourself wonder about the long term effects of a Socialist Govt.
On the plus side, 45% of turnover is non UK, so more of an international company than people think.
Even so, I still continue to increase my holding in a USA energy supplier. Only a 4.5% div in comparison, but they seem less affected by Govt interference. Although I think that risk can never be totally eliminated.

Just the thoughts of an amateur of course.

2 users thanked Captain Slugwash for this post.
Ludditeme on 13/10/2017(UTC), Tony Peterson on 14/10/2017(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 13 October 2017 10:36:56(UTC)

Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
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Dividends and adjusted earnings have been sliding over recent years, along with the share price.
Revenues flat-lining.
So not a growth stock!
PEG ratio incalculable?
How then do we calculate fair value?
EDIT1 : PETR (PEGY) not much help either.
And all that before factoring in political risk!
Any guidance yet as to whether the final dividend will be held this year?
EDIT2 : If dividend held CNA will yield more than in recent history.

Glad on this occasion no longer focusing on individual stock selection.
Hope others can profer some more useful info.
Good Luck
1 user thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
Ludditeme on 13/10/2017(UTC)
Tony Peterson
Posted: 13 October 2017 17:28:06(UTC)

Joined: 10/08/2009(UTC)
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I have topped up again today. Third time this month.

Political posturing is just noise. If the sp goes down any more there will be an irresistible bid from Rosneft.

3 users thanked Tony Peterson for this post.
Mickey on 14/10/2017(UTC), Ludditeme on 14/10/2017(UTC), Guest on 15/10/2017(UTC)
Stephen B.
Posted: 14 October 2017 13:44:18(UTC)

Joined: 26/09/2012(UTC)
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I bailed out of all utilities some years ago, basically down to political risk although the bond proxy effect also made them appear expensive. On a personal level I had been a British Gas customer for many years, with some internal switches along the way - they weren't the cheapest supplier but they had tariffs which were good enough to keep me. However when my latest tariff expired recently there was only the standard variable rate which was hopelessly uncompetitive so I've just switched to OVO (remarkably painlessly so far). Of course they will have plenty of customers who will never switch but those are the ones targeted by a possible cap.

By the way, not trying to be a salesman but OVO have a wrinkle I haven't heard about before. A long-standing criticism of monthly direct debit plans is that they always end up in credit - I think my final bill from British Gas was over £300 up (built up over the summer of course so it would reduce). Anyway, OVO do the same but they pay credit interest of 3-5% on the balance - in effect it's P2P lending, the company get to borrow at a low rate and the customer gets a better rate than they can get from a bank.
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Guest on 15/10/2017(UTC)
Posted: 15 October 2017 22:30:39(UTC)

Joined: 12/04/2015(UTC)
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I will admit to having bought a few last week. I can't say I have a lot of confidence in their competence, and doubt that they'll grow, but cash flow seems OK and they won't be going anywhere. Haven't held before, and definitely better to buy at a low relative price. Could easily change my mind though. More likely to fall than rise in the near future, but I'm always so early that the party catches me by surprise. If it ever happens.
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