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RFE
Posted: 14 September 2017 17:28:48(UTC)
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Hi everyone,
I've been reading this Forum for a couple of months and have found some helpful advice along the way so I finally decided to take the plunge and join.
I am rather new to long term investing, I've dabbled in some Forex and Day trading over the years (not very sucessfully) and decided I don't have the knack or temperment for it. I've recently moved to the UK and have opened an ISA with AJ Bell. I have about 12K that I can invest this year. I have been researching lots of Stocks, Funds, Trusts etc.. with the help of Share Pad, Morningstar and Investing Forums. I've narrowed down my list to about 30 vehicles, a mix of Shares, OEIC's, Trusts and a couple of wildcards from AIM. I'm sure the bubble won't last forever so I've tried to diversify my choices so when the downturn happens I won't be wiped out.
I'm really wondering if you can be overdiversified so my portfolio will never grow either in a Bull or Bear market? I made a Correlation chart in Excel based in the Yearly %TR over the last 10 years for my choices and it looks Ok (to me). I have purchaced a small amount of each to get a foundation (about 2k pounds) and will use the reinvestment option at AJ Bell to purchace the rest.
I was really confident in my selections untill it came time to "Pull the Trigger" and invest the remaining 10k. I will post a list of my purchaces and my Correlation chart and would love to get some feedback.





Tony Peterson
Posted: 15 September 2017 18:44:41(UTC)
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If I had inherited your huge portfolio of tiny investments today, I would have scrapped the lot and put it in 100 GSK shares.
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RFE
Posted: 15 September 2017 19:20:36(UTC)
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It is fairly large, but I have another 10k to put in it this year and about the same next year. I thought about making larger investments in a smaller no. of vehicles but then I loose the diversity factor untill next year. Not knowing how much longer this Bull run is giong to last I thought it might be better to spread the risk. My question still remains, Have I diversified too much or are there specific vehicles that I already own where it would be advantageous to give them a greater weighting.
King Lodos
Posted: 15 September 2017 19:26:42(UTC)
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Well the first thing I'd ask is: What is your aim?

What kind of timeframe are you looking at; How much could you tolerate a 50-60% drawdown?; Would you keep buying when stocks are down?; Are you going to be paying more money into this portfolio, and at what rate?; Do you want an income, or just to grow capital?

Because you really have to have a very clear picture of your aims before you can build the right portfolio for yourself.


The first bit of advice I'd give is: past returns are not indicative of future returns.

As sectors and regions (Biotech, India, etc) do well, their valuations go up .. and it's high valuations that predict poorer future returns .. So if you just pick the funds that have done well over the past 10 years, you're probably setting yourself up for disappointment.

The other thing is fund selection is not very important .. Stocks are stocks .. If you held every fund in the investment universe, you'd basically have an expensive FTSE World tracker – which you could just buy right from Vanguard, and save yourself a lot of energy (and fees) ... In answer to your question: it makes little difference how much you diversify – you're mostly just buying what we'd call 'Beta' – which is just exposure to the stock market.

I'd recommend playing around with Portfolio Visualizer – learn how different asset classes work together; understand rebalancing; understand some decades favour stocks, others favour gold and commodities.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation
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Captain Slugwash
Posted: 15 September 2017 19:27:50(UTC)
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Your trading fees must be horrendous, or did you use the £1.50 trading days?

Tony, may be a bit blunt, but totally correct. I think the strain of constantly throwing pearls before swine takes its toll, but I always take note of what he posts.(He has been missed this past month).

Personally I would have spilt the £12k between 4 blue chips in different sectors.
At the moment I probably would have gone for IMB, GSK, RDSB, and either NG or CNA.
You can diversify later if you want when you have built up a bigger portfolio.

Others will probably disagree, so take heart as those who advocate funds such as VWRL will be along shortly, probably with a nice chart too :D

Good luck.
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Keith Hilton
Posted: 15 September 2017 21:00:44(UTC)
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Diversification for diversifications sake doesn't work. You need uncorrelated assets not just numbers of different stocks. Ignoring your bond funds for now, it seems to me that the equity portion is very growth oriented. This may be fine, but don't expect them to behave differently in a downturn.

Echoing what's been said above, today I've topped up on BAB, GSK, NG. & PNN.

You also might want to consider infrastructure and commercial property, as diversifiers.

For context, I'm primarily interested in income, but with some growth.
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RFE on 15/09/2017(UTC)
RFE
Posted: 15 September 2017 21:29:17(UTC)
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Thanks for the advice, My goal with the investments are long term growth. I have about 10 to 15k a year extra that just sits there and doesn't do anything. In another year my daughter will finish University (which I pay for in Cash) and that would free up another 10k per year to do something with.

I have a small home that's paid for, I've bought a few old Pre-War Nortons, Rudges and Triumphs as fun assets that'll never really go down in value. I have 0 Debt, make pretty good money and live fairly simply. I would like to make my excess income work for me. If I need to tap a little after retirement thats ok, I would really like the Portfolio to eventually go to my Daughter so I'm looking at trying to build something that will ride out the next 25 years or so in whatever market conditions exist. I am not looking for huge returns, but like everyone else I don't want it to loose value. I could handle draw downs because I don't NEED the money to live on but like I said I would love to pass something on to my Daughter that has some value.

I have looked at the Vanguard offerings, but it seemed to run counter to what you read from all the financial advisers who say don't put all your eggs in 1 basket. So would putting my remaining 10k (for this year) into something like a Vanguard Life Strategy help make the Portfolio diverse enough over the long term to withstand market volatility and maybe make a little profit?


I swear, the more I try to learn about investing the more confusing it gets...
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Mickey on 16/09/2017(UTC)
Steeve139
Posted: 15 September 2017 22:03:17(UTC)
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Hi RFE,

I have a theory about the number of different holdings you should have. Obviously, the larger your portfolio value is, the more holdings you should have. But it isn't linear.

Think of it like this, take the number of thousands of pounds you have and take the square root of it - that will be the minimum number of holdings you should have. If you multiply that number by 1.5, that will be the highest number of holdings you should have. And the average of those two numbers should be the target. Let's try a few examples.

A £10k portfolio leads to 3, 4, 5 holdings. Target = 4.
A £100k portfolio leads to 10, 12, 15 holdings. Target = 12.
A £1m portfolio leads to 31, 38, 46 holdings. Target = 38.

What those holdings are, will be affected by your goals, age, and personailty. The holdings won't all have equal value. You can apply the idea of "core" and "peripheral" holdings, and weight them differently. Maybe you will be comfortable to hold a higher value of a single collective investment vehicle than a single equity.

The benefit of low cost platforms and tax sheltered platforms should not be underestimated. Seek them out and use them.

Good luck...
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King Lodos
Posted: 15 September 2017 23:27:10(UTC)
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RFE;51151 wrote:
I have looked at the Vanguard offerings, but it seemed to run counter to what you read from all the financial advisers who say don't put all your eggs in 1 basket. So would putting my remaining 10k (for this year) into something like a Vanguard Life Strategy help make the Portfolio diverse enough over the long term to withstand market volatility and maybe make a little profit?


Well financial advisors are often paid commissions to sell you lots of niche funds .. Just recently they've been shifting more to Vanguard and passive funds.

In fact, a Vanguard Lifestrategy fund will be more diverse (in a literal sense) than all the funds you list there put together – because it simply buys you the whole global stock and bond markets, with the assets weighted in the proportions the market holds them. (very simple and low maintenance)

If you buy a fund like AXA Framlington Biotech, you're really just buying a very small slither (the Biotech bit) of a Vanguard World Index, or Lifestrategy fund .. So if you buy enough slithers, you really just wind up with the passive Vanguard fund, albeit with the weightings a little rearranged (for better or for worse).

Which is why, really, unless you're pursuing some specific strategy that necessitates having lots of moving parts, you're really best off just putting regular contributions into something like Vanguard Lifestrategy.

If you've got a core holding like that – that effectively gives you everything – you could then add some different funds (as satellite holdings) to tailor your portfolio to your needs .. So for capital preservation, I might add a Short Duration bonds fund, and maybe 5% of your portfolio in something like SPDR Gold ETF .. For higher returns (long-term) you could add Vanguard Emerging Markets Index.

The key then becomes rebalancing .. If you had 50% in a Vanguard Stock fund, and 50% in a Bond fund, then in years when Stocks go up and Bonds go down (and you've now got 60% Stocks, 40% Bonds), you simply sell some Stocks and buy some Bonds to bring yourself back to 50:50 .. If you're paying in regularly, you might not need to do much selling – so just top up to whatever weightings you consider best.

A very good, and possibly 'free', book on Asset Allocation and portfolio strategies is Meb Faber's Global Asset Allocation .. Another really good book of his, if you really want a great grounding in portfolio construction, is The Ivy League Portfolio .. A good book on simple passive investing, with some great example portfolios, is Burton Malkiel's Random Walk Down Wall Street


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Tim D
Posted: 15 September 2017 23:29:27(UTC)
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RFE;51151 wrote:
I have looked at the Vanguard offerings, but it seemed to run counter to what you read from all the financial advisers who say don't put all your eggs in 1 basket.


Bear in mind financial advisers have an interest in making people think things have to be complicated, in the hope you'll hand the whole troublesome business over to them to manage for you.

When you buy something like Vanguard's FTSE Global All Cap Index Fund, you're buying exposure to 4872 different companies. See for yourself at the bottom of this page here. That Vanguard can offer this for an OCF of a quarter of a percent is just incredible; it (or various other broad Vanguard offerings like the LifeStrategy series) is one of the most amazingly good deals available to private investors today. There's no way you'll ever run anything like such a broadly diversified portfolio as that yourself as cheaply. If I was only allowed to hold ONE fund and no other investments, I'd probably pick Vanguard's LifeStrategy (the 80 or 60, not sure which).

IMHO the advisers' "don't put all your eggs in 1 basket" has some truth... but more to do with active funds where you don't want to bet everything on whether one manager screws up, or narrowly focussed sector or region specific funds where you don't want to risk everything on one industry's or country's fortunes, or investing exclusively in one asset class (all equities but no bonds/property/commodities). But when you buy a broad all-of-market fund (especially a multi-asset one) you're basically buying all the eggs and all the baskets there are to be bought; buying more equities on top of a core global all-of-market tracker holding is more about "overweighting" than "diversifying".
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Dian
Posted: 16 September 2017 01:01:39(UTC)
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Experienced investors still will have great investment opportunities. New investors will have to do lot of home work before identifying attractive investment opportunities in the market. At this time of market cycle, it is better to get some idea about balance sheets as shown in the following link.

https://www.valuewalk.co...staples-companies-asia/

Experienced analysts and investors have ability to find out industry trend before others.

https://www.zacks.com/co...uer-amid-global-tensions
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RFE on 16/09/2017(UTC)
TJL
Posted: 16 September 2017 08:03:37(UTC)
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'I swear, the more I try to learn about investing the more confusing it gets...'

Depending on your preference, I would suggest a single quality blue chip (as a starter), or a handful, or a handful/mix of diversified investments trusts (my preference), funds or ETFs.

Keep it simple, don't make it too complicated - that doesn't make it better, keep an eye on costs.

Far too much unnecessary theory propounded on this forum these days for me, and I don't think it is very helpful in relation to what are frequently requests for opinions and ideas in relation to fairly basic investment questions (but no offence to those that like that kind of thing).

Good luck.
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King Lodos
Posted: 16 September 2017 09:54:47(UTC)
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I think it depends..

Vanguard found that good, research-based financial advice added about 3% annually to clients' returns:
https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGQVAA.pdf

A lot of people who've come to investing in the past decade won't have experienced a long-term bear-market, or seen 15 years of returns wiped out in a short period ... And that's when your approach and behaviours will be tested – as they say: "Only when the tide goes out do you get to see who's been swimming naked."

There'll be so much conflicting information, convincing people to sell at the bottom; declaring stocks over for the next 30 years; convincing people the recovery is just a short bounce to a much larger decline.

Even Bogleheads, who have the simplest investing philosophy, need constant aphorisms and behavioural training to avoid making mistakes .. And when you look at what can happen (e.g. Japanese stock market from 1990) you realise even their approach involves a fair bit of faith – but at least gives them better odds than most of those trying to guess their way
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Mickey
Posted: 16 September 2017 10:41:09(UTC)
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King Lodos;51161 wrote:
..... And when you look at what can happen (e.g. Japanese stock market from 1990) you realise even their approach involves a fair bit of faith – but at least gives them better odds than most of those trying to guess their way

I'm a little confused how you can keep pushing Bogle but then tell us that you are making such great returns from Russia, EM's, South America etc. Without meaning to be combative, which strategy is it for you?
Thanks.
philip gosling
Posted: 16 September 2017 11:26:22(UTC)
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I have gradually shifted from individual stocks to investment trusts and am now moving mainly to ETFs - stages of risk over past 50 years of investing. Bedrock now is something like the passive Vanguard 100% (for me) Life-strategy funds with 4 investment trusts to give alternative active investing. Holding one share in one stock is really not much of an investment however well it does. Costs (buying, selling & re investing) are key considerations and in particular re- investing dividends is a vital ingredient to make investments grow - re investing dividends from so many small holdings will harm the performance and cost a comparative fortune.
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RFE
Posted: 16 September 2017 12:46:39(UTC)
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Thanks Gentelmen and or Ladies for the thought provoking advice, It looks as if I need to rethink my Investment strategy a bit. I always had the feeling that these "Big Funds" were the playground of the "Big Boys". I had looked at some of these bigger funds but had always seen in the Investor Documents that there were minimun investments of 100k to 1 mil to buy in. It was only just recently that I found out that the "Minnow Investor" like myself could purchace some of these, but by that time I had thought I had put together an alternative package.

I was looking at the SPDF Gold ETF, it looks like it's only traded on the NYSE would ETFS Physical Gold(PHAU) or Source Physical Markets Gold P-ETC(SGLD) be a good LSE alternative?
King Lodos
Posted: 16 September 2017 13:57:49(UTC)
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Mickey;51163 wrote:
King Lodos;51161 wrote:
..... And when you look at what can happen (e.g. Japanese stock market from 1990) you realise even their approach involves a fair bit of faith – but at least gives them better odds than most of those trying to guess their way

I'm a little confused how you can keep pushing Bogle but then tell us that you are making such great returns from Russia, EM's, South America etc. Without meaning to be combative, which strategy is it for you?
Thanks.


I'd say the Boglehead approach is one of the only reliable ways to make a positive return .. It's one of the only strategies that should always work – and one that doesn't necessitate being right about anything.

I do have some dilemmas with it today – such as valuations in US stocks and bonds – so I'd add extra EM, and 10% gold/commodities .. But just about any alpha-generating or factor-based strategy is likely to degrade or turn bad – so it's really hard to recommend them.

I think the kind of person who finds a strategy that generates 20% annual returns (through all markets) and then convinces everyone else to use it, is much more likely to wind up broke .. It's pessimism and self-doubt – infinitely more than 'skill' – that keeps you from losing all your money the moment you start betting against the market
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King Lodos
Posted: 16 September 2017 14:04:21(UTC)
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RFE;51166 wrote:
Thanks Gentelmen and or Ladies for the thought provoking advice, It looks as if I need to rethink my Investment strategy a bit. I always had the feeling that these "Big Funds" were the playground of the "Big Boys". I had looked at some of these bigger funds but had always seen in the Investor Documents that there were minimun investments of 100k to 1 mil to buy in. It was only just recently that I found out that the "Minnow Investor" like myself could purchace some of these, but by that time I had thought I had put together an alternative package.

I was looking at the SPDF Gold ETF, it looks like it's only traded on the NYSE would ETFS Physical Gold(PHAU) or Source Physical Markets Gold P-ETC(SGLD) be a good LSE alternative?


You can invest in most of these funds that say they only accept £100k, etc. through fund platforms like Hargreaves Lansdown (usually from as little as £100, or even less in regular savings).

Yeah, ETFS Physical Gold, or Bullionvault, should be fine .. But just make sure *you* know why you're holding gold .. It's a divisive issue among investors – Warren Buffett hates it .. Otherwise you'll hold it for a little while; 50:50 you'll lose money and sell it, and it'll have been an expensive coin flip

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RFE on 16/09/2017(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 16 September 2017 14:18:21(UTC)
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Steeve139;51152 wrote:
I have a theory about the number of different holdings you should have. Obviously, the larger your portfolio value is, the more holdings you should have. But it isn't linear...


That square-root thing seems quite attractive as a rule of thumb; I'm not sure that "number of holdings" can really be discussed in isolation from size of holdings though. An 800K portfolio of 40 20K holdings seems a very different beast from an 800K portfolio of 10 65K holdings and 30 5K holdings (but they're both 40 holdings).

Some of my own thinking on this:

When I first came to a DIY platform (having being more a user of investment houses' own ISA/pension vehicles previously) I was vary wary of the "kid in a candy store" factor and the risk of racking up more in dealing costs than I was saving on (back then) tail-commission cashbacks by spreading myself too thin across a lot of holdings and/or churning holdings.

My way of dealing with this risk was to resolve: 1. I don't want the dealing charges to inflate the effective OCF of a holding by more than 0.1% p.a maximum. 2. If I'm buying something, I should be buying it to hold for at least 5 years (yes, echoes of Buffet's "our favorite holding period is forever"). If it cost a tenner in dealing fees to take a position, and a tenner to exit, then it works out you need to be making investments of at least £4000 for the £20 quid total dealing to amortize to 0.1% OCF over 5 years. Obviously that £4K number could vary a lot depending on your platform's charges and your dealing frequency and how much overhead you can actually tolerate (and how much you think you can outperform by churning a bunch of small positions!) I have pretty much kept to this (occasional exceptions down to £2.5K/£3K).

So that sets some sort of lower bound on the number of holdings for small portfolios. If I'd had £40K on the platform, I shouldn't have had more than 10 £4K holdings according to my own rules. But as the pot gets bigger, it'd be crazy for say an £800K portfolio to have 200 £4K holdings. In practice, if you end up with a "core"/"satellites" portfolio, the core will probably end up with a handful of big trusted "old faithful" holdings, and the satellite a bunch more smaller stuff. Add another rule that holdings less than 1% of portfolio are pretty pointless (unless you're into some seriously risky stuff) and should be consolidated and you might conclude that an 800K portfolio with 75% "core" should contain no more than (say) 10 £60K holdings and no more than 25 £8K "satellites".
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Jay Mi
Posted: 16 September 2017 15:08:10(UTC)
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RFE;51114 wrote:

I was really confident in my selections untill it came time to "Pull the Trigger" and invest the remaining 10k. I will



Drip it in each month? Averaging down/up. But with so many investments, dealing fees would add up.
And those which pay a dividend, the reinvestment dealing fees could be expensive when as you have small amounts invested in each at the moment. (The divi payout would be small at the moment).

For me it's too many holdings, I'd find it difficult to manage. But as you say you'lll have 10k+ a year spare, this would build up over several years.

But like Tony said, maybe a larger amount invested in the larger more stable company could be better.- Dividends reinvested with these. For your choices, i'd personally be adding to Lloyds, as I hold it for the dividend at the moment, as well as SMT and Marlborough microcap.

Once fully invested - some of the smaller companies you have there - more volatile probably, they could have a bigger impact on the portfolio value with big drops. (similar for big gains too).

For worrying about a big drop wiping a large amount of value out - If you are investing the share 10k a year each year, you'll also be buying at the lower prices and benefit from any gains that happen after the drops (assuming, things go back up after a drop). You'll average out the losses, so I wouldn't be too worried about the effect of a big drop on the holdings providing you buy during the drops.
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