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Europe
c brown
Posted: 08 August 2017 12:28:52(UTC)
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Quite a remark in Fetrustnet article regarding UK facing a car crash. Think it's really over the top. What does everyone think.

https://m.trustnet.com/n...04ee-4c3cdca8e6-75479181
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Tim D on 08/08/2017(UTC)
Keith Hilton
Posted: 08 August 2017 13:19:23(UTC)
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I'm sure that Tim Stevenson has looked at this objectively, and is not just trying to attract £millions to his fund.

Will Brexit be a 'car crash'. Possibly, as I don't have much faith in those leading the negotiations. However, to me, it's looking increasingly like a fudge, rather than a hard Brexit, in which case a 'car crash' scenario seems less likely.

2 users thanked Keith Hilton for this post.
dlp6666 on 08/08/2017(UTC), c brown on 08/08/2017(UTC)
AJW
Posted: 08 August 2017 14:08:19(UTC)
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He runs a European trust and probably has a cultural bias towards Europe through working closely with companies there.

However, I agree with his points from an investment viewpoint. Brexit is certainly becoming the disaster some feared.
Mr Helpful
Posted: 08 August 2017 15:17:50(UTC)
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Trouble is all regions look a touch expensive at present.
No obvious bargain territories.

Europe Stock pricing has outperformed UK by 12% to 20%, dependent on measure chosen, over the last 12 months; so these kind of thoughts/fears might already be in the price ?
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dlp6666 on 08/08/2017(UTC)
Jeff Liddiard
Posted: 08 August 2017 15:48:39(UTC)
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c brown;49632 wrote:
Quite a remark in Fetrustnet article regarding UK facing a car crash. Think it's really over the top. What does everyone think.

https://m.trustnet.com/n...04ee-4c3cdca8e6-75479181


I wonder what all the other Henderson managers will think about that, especially the U.K. focussed ones!
2 users thanked Jeff Liddiard for this post.
dd on 13/08/2017(UTC), c brown on 14/08/2017(UTC)
North Star
Posted: 08 August 2017 16:59:32(UTC)
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I haven't seen a serious economist or investment expert state that there is any great economic benefit to be gained from Brexit. However Brexit is a political rather than an economic decision and only time will tell who's right. I think it's agreed by all that a slowdown of the UK economy will occur.
Given this backdrop avoiding UK sectors which are particularly susceptible to a consumer downturn maybe the best course of action. As the equity markets are very high I can't see much value anyway. I will be watching from the sidelines as most of my investments are global thankfully.
3 users thanked North Star for this post.
c brown on 08/08/2017(UTC), Tim D on 08/08/2017(UTC), dlp6666 on 09/08/2017(UTC)
Vince.
Posted: 08 August 2017 19:30:36(UTC)
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How about B&M (BME) for a UK consumer stock that should do well in tough times (and it also has an interest in Germany with Jawoll)?

Vince
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c brown on 14/08/2017(UTC)
North Star
Posted: 08 August 2017 21:36:02(UTC)
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B&M is also a takeover target. Walmart are interested apparently. Problems with any retail operation are business rates and the minimum wage which the government will use to soften the blow of imported inflation.
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Vince. on 08/08/2017(UTC), c brown on 14/08/2017(UTC)
Sinic
Posted: 13 August 2017 08:50:31(UTC)
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There is little doubt in my mind that the UK economy will be adversely affected in the short term by Brexit.

Thereafter the establishment of trading agreements, many of them tariff free, with nations from the 86% of the global economy which prospers outside the EU, will enable the UK to prosper as an unfettered global economy.

So I have reduced the proportion of UK mid and small caps in my portfolio and increased my investments in global trusts.

There are bumps and potholes in the road but none sufficient to cause a car crash!
6 users thanked Sinic for this post.
Captain Slugwash on 13/08/2017(UTC), Roy Harding on 13/08/2017(UTC), Freddy4Skin on 13/08/2017(UTC), Tim D on 13/08/2017(UTC), dd on 13/08/2017(UTC), Alan Anderson on 13/08/2017(UTC)
nala747
Posted: 13 August 2017 09:32:27(UTC)
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Well "CAR CRASH " does seem a bit OTT . When you consider that ALL the financial industry , as well as most companies have already set up companies in EUROPE,the onlyt thing that us poor mortal will face is Higher Prices, loss of jobs , House prices will come down ,because lots of people will have moved to EUROPE with their Jobs . So we went into EUROPE when we were the sick man of Europe now we will become it again .
Tim D
Posted: 13 August 2017 10:38:13(UTC)
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Sinic;49786 wrote:
There is little doubt in my mind that the UK economy will be adversely affected in the short term by Brexit.

Thereafter the establishment of trading agreements, many of them tariff free, with nations from the 86% of the global economy which prospers outside the EU, will enable the UK to prosper as an unfettered global economy.

So I have reduced the proportion of UK mid and small caps in my portfolio and increased my investments in global trusts.

There are bumps and potholes in the road but none sufficient to cause a car crash!


If you believe the long-term outlook for the UK is bright, presumably you'll be looking to re-enter the more domestic-oriented end of the UK market at some point... but what'll you be looking for as a signal that it's the right time to do that? (Or is international just the only place to be from now?)
North Star
Posted: 13 August 2017 10:53:09(UTC)
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Many hope that Brexit will correct the problems inherent in the UK economy such as low productivity, too much consumer credit and an ailing retail environment. I think they're hoping for too much. False optimism maybe good in a political environment but in the real world counts for nothing.
dd
Posted: 13 August 2017 11:09:58(UTC)
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Over-optimism may be daft, I agree but constant talk of doom and gloom will indeed have an effect on the UK economy and it will be a negative effect.
I prefer the over-optimism to the "The end is nigh" language. The over-optimism may even have a positive effect.
I don't hear winning sportsmen saying: "I am useless. I will never win".
2 users thanked dd for this post.
dlp6666 on 13/08/2017(UTC), c brown on 14/08/2017(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 13 August 2017 16:10:31(UTC)
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Well one benefit is that the fall in sterling reduces the value of the UK's debt – while overseas earnings, and taxes, increase ... and in a world in which debt may be a big constraint on growth going forwards, that might be a bit of a silver lining ... Many countries are trying to devalue their currencies

I was a Remain voter, but I'd be more likely to vote Leave in a second referendum .. I think with a suitably pragmatic government, we could become a very competitive economy ... While Western Europe's current trajectory seems insane to me
6 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Alan Anderson on 13/08/2017(UTC), dd on 13/08/2017(UTC), antigricer on 14/08/2017(UTC), jvl on 14/08/2017(UTC), Guest on 14/08/2017(UTC), c brown on 14/08/2017(UTC)
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