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King Lodos
Posted: 26 November 2017 17:13:53(UTC)
#241

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It's how Giles Hargreaves built such an outstanding track record with Marlborough Special Situations .. Lots of small positions in small stocks, and then really good trading habits and investing principles that average out across them.

I really want to build my own Buffett portfolio of 4 or 5 companies I'd always want to own more of .. Tencent and Alibaba are my two favourites at the moment, but PE ratios around 50-60 have kept me on the sidelines (apart from via funds).

Maybe Tencent is top of a Chinese Tech Bubble, but it's got a decent 35-38% Return on Capital for the past two years, and their WeChat app is basically how the Chinese do everything: messages, social media, payments, etc. Huge gaming division .. It's been falling for a few days – I think if it somehow falls to $50, I'd be starting my buy-and-hold portfolio
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colin overton
Posted: 27 November 2017 04:52:22(UTC)
#242

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So if I understand correctly, the performance of this Investment Trust is in line with expectations and everybody else is happy? Nobody is prepared to say when it will get back to 100p and that could be in 1 year, 5 years or 10 years time. I guess we'll just have to be patient and wait for Woodford to do his magic. And it's everybody's opinion in this thread that Woodford's reputation remains intact?
In a world where bad things happen it's nice to see so much happiness in the Investment community!
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King Lodos
Posted: 27 November 2017 06:03:00(UTC)
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You're seriously asking if it's a good idea to be patient in a trust called Patient Capital?

You need to understand the difference between a trader and an investor .. A trader's aim is to post positive returns; an investor's aim is to own good companies.

Woodford has always been an investor – and yes, if you're 80% in a sector that's been in a bear market, your performance is going to look like a bear market .. If you're not constantly chasing the market, then you do have to wait for the market to come to you .. And Neil's been here before – he was getting far more criticism for missing out on the Tech bubble .. Again, self-appointed experts in the media told him he was wrong; eventually the market proved he was right
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Tim D on 27/11/2017(UTC)
colin overton
Posted: 28 November 2017 09:46:00(UTC)
#244

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Micawber
Posted: 01 December 2017 09:45:19(UTC)
#245

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Woodford says world equities are in a “bubble”. He thinks that investors are paying too much for income stocks perceived as dependable, and is buying domestic house builders, retailers and banks. Note: "I am utterly convinced it will pay off when the bubble bursts — which I believe it inevitably will.”.... "I’m utterly convinced that I am right, as I have been right before.”

Hmnnnn. Are you ever utterly convinced you're right about investing?
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King Lodos
Posted: 01 December 2017 10:06:03(UTC)
#246

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I think you have to be as a value investor .. It's why I mostly gave up on value investing – I have nothing but doubt and double-think.

It comes down to rates .. If rates normalise, clearly earnings yields on 'dependable' stocks start to look very poor value .. If rates are still low in 10-20 years time, those dependable stocks might keep grinding higher.

And behind rates are whether we get the required level of inflation – and with automation, does the lack of wage growth inflation stunt that? .. I think as always with value, there's no guarantee of higher returns, but there's more potential .. And over the very long-term, over wins and losses, I think that's why value persists – but also why it's always been difficult to stick with
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Micawber
Posted: 01 December 2017 14:49:19(UTC)
#247

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Agreed
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colin overton
Posted: 01 December 2017 15:13:24(UTC)
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colin overton
Posted: 09 December 2017 13:01:06(UTC)
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WPCT -1.65% on week, NAV slightly up but discount widen to ~10%.
Prothena ~-13% on week (in $s). No really sure there was any more "bad news" this week?
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