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Woodford Patient....
GeneralZod
Posted: 10 July 2017 13:35:16(UTC)
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Thank God you lot took the ---- out of Salty D a bit and encouraged me to get out. I've just had this email from them and it's like something from the dark days. It's a scathing, hating, anger-filled rant about Labour policies and Jeremy Corbyn...one paragraph reads: "It is incomprehensible to me that the Conservatives did not shout out that socialism has never worked, and that it’s a proven disaster for the populations of the countries inflicted with this disease." Goodness me. It then adds that it's worrying that a lot of teachers voted for him. Hmmm. I'm one of them then.

I hope I find more love out this way. I emailed back and said the comedy value from the mail was high but please remove me from their mailing list.

Just a quicky. I did "was agreed" and have placed a majority of dollar in the Vanguard 80 and then did a few satellite bits to keep mother happy. I was wondering, with the little pot of gold I have left, to put a tiny bit into something UK, again long-term, and my mind wandered to Woodford's Patient fund. Now, I know it's generally regarded as a dud and I believe it's still trading at a fair discount. But, for a long-term stake, what do people think? Are there any other alternatives?

Cheers guys.

Now remember: Kneel before Zod.
King Lodos
Posted: 10 July 2017 14:12:24(UTC)
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Socialism has not only never worked, its policies are still tanking economies (most recently Venezuela and Greece) and it was responsible for as much as 10x more genocide than the holocaust in the 20th century.

It's a strange quirk of history that we don't view Socialism in the same light as Nazism (an abbreviation of National Sozialistische), but then many Socialists went into education after the war, and gained a foothold – economically the Nazis were throughly left-wing.

I'd go for RCP myself .. Vanguard gives you the whole market with negligible fees .. RIT Capital Partners gives you the few things you can't get in a tracker: good active management and alternative assets .. I think they compliment each other well.
6 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
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Sara G
Posted: 10 July 2017 14:49:20(UTC)
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Whether now is a good time to buy WPCT depends on what kind of investor you are... having traded around 90p for some time, it's now at 98p and the discount has narrowed. This may be a sign of positive momentum, so if you're a momentum investor (which your former interest in Saltydog suggests may be the case) then it may be good to get in now. For myself, I'm happy to finally be in profit, but won't be topping up as I think better bargains may emerge later in the year.

As regards the politics, if you believe Corbyn has a good chance of getting in and/or think Brexit will have a negative impact on share prices then you may want to ensure that you are globally diversified, so something like EWI may be an alternative, with its emphasis on disruptive tech and small caps - it's one of my core holdings and has done very well this year.

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jvl
Posted: 10 July 2017 15:35:12(UTC)
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King Lodos;48664 wrote:
Socialism has not only never worked, its policies are still tanking economies (most recently Venezuela and Greece) and it was responsible for as much as 10x more genocide than the holocaust in the 20th century.

It's a strange quirk of history that we don't view Socialism in the same light as Nazism


I've long wondered why 'Socialist Worker' banners and demonstrations are considered acceptable on the streets, considering their kind of states killed so many millions and kept 99% of the rest in misery. Logically they should be considered as socially unacceptable as extreme nationalists but they're not.

I wonder how many good investors are socialists.
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Sinic on 11/07/2017(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 10 July 2017 16:00:26(UTC)
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jvl;48667 wrote:
I've long wondered why 'Socialist Worker' banners and demonstrations are considered acceptable on the streets, considering their kind of states killed so many millions and kept 99% of the rest in misery. Logically they should be considered as socially unacceptable as extreme nationalists but they're not.

I wonder how many good investors are socialists.


And how McDonnell can quote from Mao's Little Red Book in the Commons?

I can see the appeal of the subversive – and think a lot of great art and design came from the Communists and National Socialists – but there's a level of interest in these things that becomes concerning.

Oddly, George Soros (my role-model as a trader) invests endless millions in furthering Socialist causes .. I don't know where truth and fiction meet on this, e.g. talk of him bankrolling masked agitators at conservative events .. And I really don't know what his aims are .. Very hard to imagine they're philanthropic.
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Alan Selwood
Posted: 10 July 2017 17:17:18(UTC)
#20

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Anybody who supports Corbyn and McDonnell needs to get a grip.

If you are old enough to have lived through the left-wing subversion of Labour's 1970s in the UK, or in the Nazi/Black Shirt/Fascist era, you will know much better than relative youngsters just how dangerous such extremists are. Democratic they are not! Lovers of their fellow man they are not!

Support them at your peril. I never will.

(Don't bother to kneel before ME - I am old enough to be humble).
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chubby bunny
Posted: 10 July 2017 17:54:27(UTC)
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May/June was a better time to buy when the discount was nearly 10%. It's still trading 0.5% below it's 12-month average discount, but it's not necessarily 'cheap'. I sold half when it went to that silly premium and topped up a few months ago.

Nowadays I mostly buy into momentum, but Woodford is the only manager I still have a bit of a soft spot for. I like his ethos and the companies he's investing in (bar one or two odd decisions). WPCT is only a small part of my portfolio so I'm happy to give him the benefit of the doubt for a good few years yet. If it doesn't work out then at least I can look back and see what a silly sod I was for having faith in a fund manager.

Alternatives would be micro/nano cap (Marlborough/Miton/Liontrust/Downing etc.) and private equity trusts.
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Lawny
Posted: 10 July 2017 18:07:19(UTC)
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Hmm,

I'm not sure that socialism has really been tried very much. Most "socialist" countries have seemed more like gangster oligarchy or fascist dictatorship (its the uniforms). If the thought is places like the USSR or East Germany then they fit above but they also lasted a fair old time and conversely the western countries are a long way from what they were in 1945. It did work for the Spartans (thought not the Helots), Israeli kibbutz, NHS anyone ?

Whatever else, it seems plain that quite a lot of people are not happy, they are actually pretty angry. Plus, both Tories and Labour seem to have abandoned the centre and compromise has become a dirty word. So it becomes a straight choice between extremes

PCT I bought at launch and sold shortly afterwards for 16% gain, probably my best ever gain. I bought back in last August and it had gone sideways until recently. Quite a lot of the holdings have been unlisted so its very much a microcap bet. I have it at just over 1% of my main pf; an amuse bouche.



King Lodos
Posted: 10 July 2017 19:58:43(UTC)
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Lawny;48677 wrote:
Hmm,

I'm not sure that socialism has really been tried very much. Most "socialist" countries have seemed more like gangster oligarchy or fascist dictatorship (its the uniforms). If the thought is places like the USSR or East Germany then they fit above but they also lasted a fair old time and conversely the western countries are a long way from what they were in 1945. It did work for the Spartans (thought not the Helots), Israeli kibbutz, NHS anyone ?


Firstly you have to look at the scale of the failures .. Massive poverty and 100 million killed in 'purges'.

But then the argument is always that it wasn't 'true' Socialism .. Well if that wasn't true Socialism, the NHS and Sparta certainly aren't .. The NHS is Nationalisation – which isn't Socialisation, and is common in Capitalist economies – and Sparta was a Nationalist Oligarchy(?) as far as I remember, and certainly not the Marxist ideal of workers owning the means of production .. Israeli Kibbutzes all failed .. What few remain became private enterprises.

The reason Socialism doesn't work is because of a basic understanding of money (and you could say human behaviour) .. Money's just a form of debt that facilitates trade .. Any attempt to redistribute wealth by redistributing money fails because the actual value of things doesn't change, and all you're really doing is creating an inefficiency.

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jvl
Posted: 11 July 2017 08:17:29(UTC)
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Lawny;48677 wrote:
both Tories and Labour seem to have abandoned the centre and compromise has become a dirty word.

I'm not quite sure what kind of glasses you've been wearing to think that the centre has been abandoned and there's no compromise.

No party is advocating low taxes or a small state (or even austerity) and no party has offered this choice for a long time. Theresa May was rightly called a 'Red Tory' for her centrist, socialist-lite, manifesto. She flips a policy at the first sign of trouble, compromising pretty much everything. Before Corbyn, both Labour and Conservatives were crowding the centre. We've had over 20 years of it.

I still find it amazing and depressing that 4 out of 10 voters voted for something that's been so utterly discredited over the past 100 years. Even if we link it to the fact that only 43% of working age people actually pay tax, it's depressing that they don't realise that, ultimately, they'll be worse off.

Perhaps the Tories should put in some mandatory study of economics and relevant history into the curriculum to help educate the future generation?
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King Lodos
Posted: 11 July 2017 11:04:12(UTC)
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The big problem is there's been a huge shift to the left in education establishments.

Between 1990 and now, the number of teachers and professors with conservative views has halved to something like 3-6% .. So it's getting difficult to get things published that don't toe the leftist political line (from economics to genetics).

I *assume* it's because of the advent of so many 'Mickey Mouse' courses – like gender studies, and post-modern journals that publish complete nonsense – which create a class of people with expensive degrees who are essentially unemployable, and stay in the education system with a chip on their shoulder about the private sector.
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GeneralZod
Posted: 11 July 2017 12:04:34(UTC)
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"The big problem is there's been a huge shift to the left in education establishments."

A sweeping statement to be sure - I work in a large educational establishments and am surrounded by people with many different political views - but even if this statement were true, why on earth is it a problem?

You think someone suggesting that those earning over £80k a year pay a little more into the tax system to perhaps - horror of horror - help end a pay cut of between 13% to 14% that teachers and many others public sector workers have endured since 2008/9 is some leftie lunatic?

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PaulSh
Posted: 11 July 2017 12:25:02(UTC)
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@GeneralZod, based on my own experiences of education and the "education" visited upon my children, I'd be inclined to agree with his majesty's sweeping statement. My abiding impression of the work they were bringing home and of parents' evenings was that more or less everything had been turned into various flavours of social studies.

Oh, and if you soak the rich, they'll just go somewhere drier.
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Law Man
Posted: 11 July 2017 12:55:26(UTC)
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My own view is that we should not engage in invective about politics in Citywire. To discuss the implications of a particular policy e.g. Leave EU is different.

WPCT: Of course you will consider how any new purchase complements your existing investments; and in particular WPCT. For myself I hold just under 2% of total in WPCT at an average buy in price of about 95 p, and consider it a long term holding - I would not buy if you intend to sell within 5 years. It gives me exposure to health care and a form of private equity.
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jvl
Posted: 11 July 2017 13:14:45(UTC)
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GeneralZod;48708 wrote:

A sweeping statement to be sure - I work in a large educational establishments and am surrounded by people with many different political views - but even if this statement were true, why on earth is it a problem?


It's a fact.

One pre-election survey found that 72 per cent of secondary school teachers intended to vote Labour, 10 per cent Lib Dem and just 8 per cent Conservative.

Institutional bias and discrimination is a huge problem, creating hatred and misunderstanding and group-think. Ideas go unchallenged, people with different views are afraid to air them.

How on earth can it be a healthy environment in which to teach our young? It's astounding that you should not think it a problem (and that you talked about the SaltyDog email as if you'd find sympathy here on an investor's board. That should show to you how left-leaning politics is the norm where you work).
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jvl
Posted: 11 July 2017 13:22:24(UTC)
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Law Man;48712 wrote:
My own view is that we should not engage in invective about politics in Citywire.

Mine too usually but the OP brought it up and there's been such a big move recently towards trying to make socialist views the norm on social and TV media and to demonise common-sense economics as being evil. This just grows when it's left unchallenged, leading to the election result. That's not in our interest as investors.
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King Lodos
Posted: 11 July 2017 14:04:04(UTC)
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GeneralZod;48708 wrote:
"The big problem is there's been a huge shift to the left in education establishments."

A sweeping statement to be sure - I work in a large educational establishments and am surrounded by people with many different political views - but even if this statement were true, why on earth is it a problem?

You think someone suggesting that those earning over £80k a year pay a little more into the tax system to perhaps - horror of horror - help end a pay cut of between 13% to 14% that teachers and many others public sector workers have endured since 2008/9 is some leftie lunatic?


I think it's perfectly reasonable to have an opinion on taxes and public sector pay – the problem comes when you lose intellectual diversity.

When universities are churning out kids who know everything about the wrongs of the British Empire, but nothing of the Turkish Empire; who have a completely Marxist view of economics; who've been taught in an environment in which politics trump objectivity, and huge swathes of biology and genetics are off limits due to various -isms .. then you do create a generation of angry, self-loathing young people.

Throw in hefty student debt and poor employment prospects, and you're creating a mobilised army who'll rally and riot for anyone pushing hard-left policies.
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GeneralZod
Posted: 11 July 2017 14:58:58(UTC)
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When universities are churning out kids who know everything about the wrongs of the British Empire, but nothing of the Turkish Empire; who have a completely Marxist view of economics; who've been taught in an environment in which politics trump objectivity, and huge swathes of biology and genetics are off limits due to various -isms...

Support where this is happening.
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Bit at a Time on 11/07/2017(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 11 July 2017 15:18:55(UTC)
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There was a great article published just a week ago that gives far more detailed examples:

Are the Social Sciences Undergoing a Purity Spiral?
http://quillette.com/2017/07/06/social-sciences-undergoing-purity-spiral/
jvl
Posted: 11 July 2017 15:57:19(UTC)
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GeneralZod;48708 wrote:

You think someone suggesting that those earning over £80k a year pay a little more into the tax system to perhaps - horror of horror - help end a pay cut of between 13% to 14% that teachers and many others public sector workers have endured since 2008/9 is some leftie lunatic?


Public sector workers are paid more on average than private sector workers and have more job security. Will your employer ever go bust and not be able to pay your last month's wage, let alone a redundancy package?

Private sector workers are the people paying for the public sector. They have suffered more over the past 10 years than those in the public sector and yet you expect them to pay more so that you get higher wages?

On top of that, public sector pensions are defined benefit ones, guaranteed to be paid by taxpayers and to rise in line with inflation.

Most of us in the private sector have to scrimp and save on defined contribution schemes, battling against low interest rates. It would take a huge pot to match a public sector pension.

Yet you never think of that. It's a huge benefit, taken for granted. I don't earn 80k but it isn't rich for a sole bread-winner struggling with two or three kids, a London mortgage and trying to save for a pension. Two teachers living together on 30k each in a northern town could be doing better.

Do you want higher wages? I'd vote for your pay rise if public sector workers have to do their own pensions like the rest of us. Which brings us back to why we're here (or me at least). To try to make enough money to retire or even live on...
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