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Election
c brown
Posted: 30 May 2017 15:21:16(UTC)
#1

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Am concerned Labour is catching up too fast and now have a good chance of winning. This will destroy the UK economy. What are others positions? Am getting out of UK positions.
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Mr Helpful on 30/05/2017(UTC), Aidan MacGinley on 09/06/2017(UTC)
andy mac
Posted: 30 May 2017 15:25:55(UTC)
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what did sergeant jones say dont panic, although if everyone does there will be buying opportunities
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c brown on 30/05/2017(UTC), Jon Snow on 31/05/2017(UTC)
c brown
Posted: 30 May 2017 15:27:54(UTC)
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Agreed and I will buy back in (hopefully!) After a conservative victory! It worked with Brexit!
Keith Cobby
Posted: 30 May 2017 15:29:24(UTC)
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Known/unknown and irrelevant to long term investors.
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c brown on 30/05/2017(UTC), Guest on 31/05/2017(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 30 May 2017 15:42:12(UTC)
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c brown;47342 wrote:
Am concerned Labour is catching up too fast and now have a good chance of winning. This will destroy the UK economy. What are others positions? Am getting out of UK positions.


Makes sense.

But suppose Tories win !!!

To use that irritating well-worn dogmatic phrase; we are "staying the course".
1 user thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
c brown on 30/05/2017(UTC)
Mickey
Posted: 30 May 2017 15:56:56(UTC)
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Not through any planning we have gone to 16% cash in the portfolios, usually hold just dividends until we have enough to justify a purchase or top-up. Everything seems a tad riskier all of a sudden.
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S Dobbo on 31/05/2017(UTC)
Andrew Hill
Posted: 30 May 2017 16:55:20(UTC)
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Just where will all the money come from for the proposals put forward by the Labour Party?

Uncomfortable as it may be, to many, this country has to start living within its means.
4 users thanked Andrew Hill for this post.
c brown on 30/05/2017(UTC), sarah b on 01/06/2017(UTC), CT on 04/06/2017(UTC), Aidan MacGinley on 09/06/2017(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 30 May 2017 17:01:45(UTC)
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Betting on binary outcomes is rarely a good idea (re: selling out and buying back in).

The market's giving you certain odds on either outcome, and the only time to get out is when you know the market's odds are wrong, and not in your favour (which is difficult) .. Then there's the lessons of 2016, in which the worst case events materialised TWICE, and both times markets rallied .. Crispin Odey's predictions were perfect – but he was punished.

Rather, decide on an appropriate allocation to UK equities that balances upside against downside .. If Conservatives win, your foreign-denominated assets may (relatively) fall if the pound rallies .. So there's up and downside on both outcomes – and the possibility markets do the opposite of what you expect anyway .. I usually go into these things assuming the probability of outcomes is 50:50 (unscientific, but markets tend to get it wrong by being *too* certain).
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c brown on 30/05/2017(UTC), Alan Selwood on 30/05/2017(UTC), Guest on 31/05/2017(UTC), sarah b on 01/06/2017(UTC), Andrew Smith 259 on 04/06/2017(UTC), Guest on 10/06/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 30 May 2017 17:22:17(UTC)
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Mrs May is proving to be an inept leader who can't stand up without the handrail of slogans..

There's downside if the Conservatives win, and even more downside if Labour win. After the last year's adjustments, we're about 20% weighted to UK and about 12% cash in our portfolios (offspring however are fully invested for the long term, but just 18% weighted to UK).

But there will always be opportunities somewhere amid the dislocations.
7 users thanked Micawber for this post.
c brown on 30/05/2017(UTC), s webster on 31/05/2017(UTC), David 111 on 31/05/2017(UTC), Andrew Smith 259 on 04/06/2017(UTC), Fiona D. on 07/06/2017(UTC), Aidan MacGinley on 09/06/2017(UTC), Guest on 10/06/2017(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 30 May 2017 18:58:13(UTC)
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I'm also nervous about the election, but not selling or buying anything at the moment. I'm (for me) relatively overweight the UK (35%) and underweight Europe (9%), which I will address going forward if the £ strengthens after the result.
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Bellabeck on 02/06/2017(UTC)
andy
Posted: 30 May 2017 19:35:49(UTC)
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Sara

You are normally one of the wise heads on here - so for you to be worried is a bit curious.

Yes the gap is closing - I would suggest that a hard Brexit and a Labour victory are both undesirable to the economy but the UK is an increasingly small market to invest in.

If you believe you are underweight Europe then you might want to look at the usual European trusts - JEO and JETI - but they are about as European as many of the British companies we know and love (eg. Unilever). So to get access to Europe properly I use EAT, PSDL (German Property) and DBAG (ticker is actually DBAN and is German Private Equity listed in Frankfurt - do watch out as this can be rather volatile).

I do suspect that no matter who wins in the long term it will make less difference than people are making out.

As always - good luck.

Andrew
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Sara G on 30/05/2017(UTC), Guest on 10/06/2017(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 30 May 2017 20:17:07(UTC)
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I don't know about wise, Andrew - I have bought bitcoin after all! - but thank you :)

When I say I am nervous, I should clarify that I don't mean I'm worried about my investments - that would be pointless and, as you say, probably the impact is not significant in the longer term, which is why I'm not selling. I just think a socialist government would be disastrous for the country on all fronts - but that's just my opinion.

As for not buying, mostly it's because I don't see any bargains around, but I expect opportunities later in the year whatever happens.

For Europe I have been watching TRG.
4 users thanked Sara G for this post.
andy on 30/05/2017(UTC), Andrew Smith 259 on 04/06/2017(UTC), CT on 04/06/2017(UTC), Aidan MacGinley on 09/06/2017(UTC)
andy
Posted: 30 May 2017 20:33:54(UTC)
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Sara

In terms of political parties - I feel it is a case of a sense of dread no matter who wins. Personally - I have a feeling that the least bad option would be another coalition. The only problem for me is I could see Corbyn propping up May to ensure that he gets the Brexit he always wanted.

I still think Britain will be weaker on the world stage outside the EU - but most of the time economically it wont be a disaster - just will be a worse option as the UK will not be able to negotiate anything better quickly (and certainly not in the 22 months they have left). The government went to India to get a deal and came back empty handed as India wants increased access for the citizens as the cost - and that feels like the modern currency - the EU, India and Australia have all stated - the cost for a trade deal is easier / unfettered movement of people - and I am not sure how May will be able to sell that to her hard-liners.

I'll take a look at TRG - so thank you for that - I do keep the number of holdings down (am now up to 11).

I am down to 25% or so in the UK and up to 25% in Europe. Europe is always a bit "interesting" as there has not been a proper crisis for a while - but I believe BREXIT is an opportunity for Europe (Excl UK) to unite and work together.

I see the chances of a rising sterling about as likely as falling from here - I just cant tell.



Andrew
Sara G
Posted: 30 May 2017 20:45:45(UTC)
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Here's JP Morgan's take on the potential impact on sterling of a hung parliament...

http://www.telegraph.co....ailout-payment-italian/

...and the second part of the article seems to suggest another European wobble is on the cards. If they are right on both counts then I'll definitely be upping European exposure, as I agree with your rationale that the EU will probably now pull together.
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andy on 30/05/2017(UTC)
andy
Posted: 30 May 2017 20:59:57(UTC)
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Sara

Again - thank you for the article - we live in strange times.

I should have added. My logic of using Germany rather than Europe is that Germany will do as well as the rest of Europe when things go well - and if there was a collapse of the Euro - then a new DM would appreciate considerably compared to the rest of Europe which would protect to the downside.

Thats the reason for holding PSDL (the alternative for me was Vonovia - VNA) and DBAG.

Andrew
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Micawber on 30/05/2017(UTC), The Spanish Inquisition on 31/05/2017(UTC)
Jon Snow
Posted: 31 May 2017 00:31:14(UTC)
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Andrew Hill;47349 wrote:
Just where will all the money come from for the proposals put forward by the Labour Party?

Uncomfortable as it may be, to many, this country has to start living within its means.


Andrew,

A bit of a round up and a rant too about the la la land we seem to be heading for.

"It's fully costed" - well worth trying to work out what that means!

"It's only fair that we ask those with the broadest shoulders to "pay just a little bit more" ". No comment needed.

LVT - comrade, what's not to like - http://www.landvaluetax.org/what-is-lvt/

Finally the magical money tree, where unfortunately interest rates will rise quite a bit for any loans to Mr McDonnell (where is he hiding/being hidden?).

Unfortunately for us, most folk don't see the bigger picture beyond the freebies being scattered like sweets in front of them by the child catcher.

On the other hand I can't believe how badly the conservative campaign has played out so far. The care home fees fiasco on the back of the NI and probate fees U turns (for now) imply instability and a lack of connection to the voters.

I hope May wins a decent majority but it's with a heavy heart that we'll put our cross in the box.

On the other hand again, the world is changing too quickly for the traditional parties (and for me) to keep up with. We have youngsters with BSc. and MSc. at 24 who have never worked and find themselves with £60k of debt.

Who commissioned the Browne report into tuition fees, you mean the one that recommended fees be raised from £3,000 pa to £9,000 pa, yes, that one, it was a labour government. Labour as in the party that now wants to abolish tuition fees.

I'm becoming closer to Homer Simpsons dad every day (he's in a nursing home, or he was the last time I watched), Homer visits him and asks why he doesn't have a daily paper to read, his dad replies "we're not allowed them 'cos they angry up the blood".

They angry up the blood, they sure do.








13 users thanked Jon Snow for this post.
Mr Helpful on 31/05/2017(UTC), Stephen Garsed on 31/05/2017(UTC), Alan Selwood on 31/05/2017(UTC), cliff aner on 31/05/2017(UTC), Martina on 31/05/2017(UTC), john brace on 01/06/2017(UTC), Lavochkin on 04/06/2017(UTC), gillyann on 05/06/2017(UTC), TJ33A on 06/06/2017(UTC), Aidan MacGinley on 09/06/2017(UTC), Kenpen2 on 10/06/2017(UTC), alan thompson on 10/06/2017(UTC), halfinchnut on 11/06/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 31 May 2017 06:11:40(UTC)
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Setting aside personal interest, it's hard to ignore the argument that under first the Labour right, then the Conservative-led governments, the BOE has printed £520 billion in QE that kept asset prices rising for those who have assets, in the wake of first, a crisis wholly created by the greed of bankers worldwide, and latterly, a crisis created by the Conservative right. So now why not print more for the have-nots, who now include millions of people under 30 whose chances of getting similar assets through work are close to zero, and more millions who don't have private medical insurance but paid their National Insurance yet see their prospects of hip and knee replacements disappearing....?

But the prospect of incompetent 1970s Marxist-Leninists spending it while trades unionists regain a stranglehold is unappealing.
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dyfed
Posted: 31 May 2017 08:09:21(UTC)
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Spot on Micawber!
But I bet you this "hung parliament" stuff is all froth : on the day all us guilty and illicit Tory voters will be out there...
The majority may not be as big as May hoped but it'll be an improvement.
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Jon Snow on 31/05/2017(UTC), sandid3 on 31/05/2017(UTC)
Mickey
Posted: 31 May 2017 14:11:55(UTC)
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Sorry but I do not agree with Micawber on the line of poor under 30's I'm afraid. Sure houses are more expensive compared to earnings but 30 year olds of today have it far better than many of us did at 30. Remember that they aren't forced out looking for a job at 14 or 15 but instead many spend a further 8 or 9 years in comfy education.

They now start to earn their own money later in life, their quality of life is generally much improved and they can expect to live to a later age in far better health than many of those that went before them.

Perhaps they may not get the chance to amass the assets Micawber talks about but many of them will inherit those assets provided Government manage not get through their policies of clutching all your assets as you pass away. In prior times we were lucky to inherit anything, most of us got nowt but will continue to scrimp and save for our children who in turn will benefit.

My chances of a hip or knee on the NHS may be disappearing but let's not pretend that is down to a Government that printed money, the rot set in long before that decision which goes back to a certain Tony Blair who decided to open the borders to increase the number of Labour voters.

There are plusses and minuses to it all.

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Guest on 01/06/2017(UTC), Bit at a Time on 04/06/2017(UTC)
TJL
Posted: 31 May 2017 14:20:35(UTC)
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There is a huge price to pay for those '8 or 9 years in comfy education' of course - either now or potentially later (with interest).
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