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Euphoria
Micawber
Posted: 14 February 2017 08:05:34(UTC)
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Apart from the irredeemable raging bulls among you, anyone finding the equity surge these past three months euphoric?

I am looking for townships called Euphoria and Disillusion in American Midwestern states
andy
Posted: 14 February 2017 08:54:59(UTC)
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Hope about Cape Disappointment, Washington or Misery Bay, Michigan?

Andrew
srg751
Posted: 14 February 2017 09:24:09(UTC)
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I feel as though I'm being lulled into the spiders web. If I didn't have the opportunity to monitor my PF daily, my stop losses would be even tighter.
I was assessing the value still wrapped up in some of the trusts held by British Empire yesterday, with a view to selling, but there's still scope for at least another 'easy' 20% just on unwinding discounts, let alone the value that's been locked away. So maybe, for the time being, we can enjoy a little more 'euphoria'.
Still, when Mr market says we're going down, it'll be a brave man who waves a fist at it.

Are we headed for Missouri ??
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Raj K on 14/02/2017(UTC)
Keith Cobby
Posted: 14 February 2017 09:33:45(UTC)
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I don't see euphoria or a raging bull market. I think markets (except probably the US) are reasonable value. Considering there continues to be little return from cash/gilts I would say there is more to come.
2 users thanked Keith Cobby for this post.
Tony Peterson on 15/02/2017(UTC), Jezzer on 15/02/2017(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 14 February 2017 09:57:24(UTC)
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Article here that summarises a view of some investors :-

http://www.marketwatch.c...for-equities-2017-02-13

But then as they say "no-one rings a bell at market tops".

This investor is struggling to make sense of the conflicting market valuation measures, but if any euphoria then well concealed.
Meanwhile continue to part top-slice.
srg751
Posted: 14 February 2017 10:00:38(UTC)
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Keith Cobby;43148 wrote:
I don't see euphoria or a raging bull market. I think markets (except probably the US) are reasonable value. Considering there continues to be little return from cash/gilts I would say there is more to come.


Keith, ......"I don't see a raging Bull market" ??????

Really ??.... In just under 12 months, the Dow is up 50%, The S&P 500 is up 45%, and the FTSE 100 is up 33%.
Believe me Keith, we are in a Bull market.
Some of us who've taken advantage of it have made life changing amounts of money. To only marginally outperform the Dow, you've increased your wealth by 50% or more. This is definitely a BULL MARKET !!!
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Ron Dawes on 15/02/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 14 February 2017 10:22:06(UTC)
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Yes, in the past six months our combined pfs are up 32%, in three months (i.e. after the sterling crash) 16.75%, and the past six weeks 7%.

When I look (as I always do) at "what's changed" among fundamentals, the answer is very little apart from one Fed rate rise. There is continuing firm but not spectacular US growth, with increased company earnings to offset against very high US stock valuations.

So what has changed is just sentiment: optimism based on "Trump + Republicans will be good for US business which will be good for world growth" (a questionable argument, that last bit). Optimism based on a view, also highly questionable, that Brexit will be good for, or at least not bad for, the UK economy. I am always wary when hope is the main driver.

But then, there is pessimism regarding bonds, probably justified, which is leading to withdrawals and more cash to be deployed elsewhere. Which, as inflation is also now thought to be weighing on calculations, means equities.

Meanwhile it seems that the vast and increasing debt, and its deflationary consequences, is being forgotten -or dismissed as 'likely to be inflated away'....

So in spite of the likelihood of further Fed rate rises, gold now becomes something to consider more seriously (yes it is me saying that!)
2 users thanked Micawber for this post.
Mike L on 15/02/2017(UTC), c brown on 15/02/2017(UTC)
Tom 123
Posted: 14 February 2017 10:36:01(UTC)
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Haven't we been in a bull market since the Spring of 2009? The longest on record.

Is this a new secular bull market or a cyclical bull?

I have been underweight the USA for some time as it appears the most expensive market, although proven wrong so far.


CUEBALL
Posted: 14 February 2017 10:49:53(UTC)
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Bought some more jrs
Keith Cobby
Posted: 14 February 2017 11:56:03(UTC)
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Clearly we are in a bull market which is very strong in the US. The FTSE100 is at 7288. In 1999 it was just below 7000. There has been no return on cash for years and no real prospect in the medium term. Emerging market equities are inexpensive. I am fully invested and intend to remain so.
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Mike L on 15/02/2017(UTC), JohnR on 15/02/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 14 February 2017 12:47:06(UTC)
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CUEBALL;43159 wrote:
Bought some more jrs

On the resignation of Flynn?!

(JRS is a hold for me)
CUEBALL
Posted: 14 February 2017 14:05:06(UTC)
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Not really ..someone bought 50,000...ibstock look like they're trying to 'escape' ...have i mentioned they make brick's?
Mr Helpful
Posted: 14 February 2017 14:45:39(UTC)
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Micawber;43154 wrote:

There is continuing firm but not spectacular US growth, with increased company earnings to offset against very high US stock valuations.



Re "very high US valuations", which might be the best measure to concentrate on?

http://www.smithers.co.uk/page.php?id=34

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/

If one accepts that valuations can drift over decades for tax, accountancy methods, buy-backs rather than dividends, cost of finance, etc, then looking very carefully at S&P yield, we might posit that the new median is a yield of 2.4%, and then it might be observed we are about 22% above that median.
But not so clever with CAPE or q.

Which (if any) seems the more realistic?

All opinions welcome as we remain steadfastly confused.
CUEBALL
Posted: 14 February 2017 15:07:58(UTC)
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You will indeed be "lured into a 'spider's web'" and if you are, one which you will regret.As the E in P/E finally emerges from the 'Hank Marvin's'

And as Vincent Price would put it ..Ha Ha Ha Ha ....Haaaaaaa!!!

Is there only me and Tony that remember's the eighty's ?

ATB.

For our younger viewer Mr Marvin used to front a band called the Shadow's.
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Tony Peterson on 15/02/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 14 February 2017 15:18:00(UTC)
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CUEBALL;43170 wrote:

For our younger viewer Mr Marvin used to front a band called the Shadow's.

With Bruce Welch, Tony Bennet and....?

The theme should be Frightened City perhaps.... (or you and Tony P might go for Wonderful Land)
kWIKSAVE
Posted: 14 February 2017 15:42:49(UTC)
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Cuey Cueball

Ibstock in good position for Mexican wall ?
andy mac
Posted: 14 February 2017 16:00:53(UTC)
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no I can remember the 70 and the 60s
Cuey with flowers in his hair. I dont have any left that is hair I mean

but I assume that you are Back in the USSR with your purchase of JRS
Im more a Silver Machine
CUEBALL
Posted: 14 February 2017 16:07:45(UTC)
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kWIKSAVE;43172 wrote:
Cuey Cueball

Ibstock in good position for Mexican wall ?


More likely CRH (Concrete) ?


King Lodos
Posted: 14 February 2017 16:12:35(UTC)
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I think the S&P500's only up a little over 15% over 12 months(?), and the FTSE100's not looking too good in most other currencies.

Most of what you're seeing is sterling depreciation (making foreign assets seem higher and the UK look like a depressed value opportunity) .. Weigh it against your international purchasing power losing about 25% over the 12 months.

So to me there's no great euphoria .. Valuations are tricky .. Consider average PE of 23 is an earnings yield of 4% .. The risk-free (10yr treasury) yield is 2.5% .. How much closer can those two get before there's a big correction in equities? Rising rates and political risk both speed that along.. I'd say 3% on the 10yr and a French election could be all it takes.
3 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Mr Helpful on 14/02/2017(UTC), Kenpen2 on 15/02/2017(UTC), Mike L on 15/02/2017(UTC)
Rishan
Posted: 15 February 2017 10:40:59(UTC)
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I'm certainly not euphoric, although I know what is meant by the phrase. I feel completely locked out of the market and frustrated, having sold things too early and needing to use the CGT allowance for next year's ISA. I don't understand why it's just going up and up at this rate with all the rubbish happening in the world. Maybe I should just give up because I have completely missed the boat now. I don't have the time, and clearly don't have the patience to be a good investor. I will end up investing my ISA allowance in April in things that are very expensive and then watch them return nothing, or lose 50% in the ensuing crash. Does anyone else feel the same at this point?
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