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Fell Walker
Posted: 25 March 2018 15:16:57(UTC)
#43

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Tony Peterson;59380 wrote:
Fell Walker


You are still a customer of BT, and even if you change providers for your landline again you will still be contributing to my share of BT's profits from our ownership of the infrastructure you use.



Have I said I don't want to be a customer of BT? What's your point????

Anyway, it's only a matter of time before SIM only for phone and broadband will outweigh needing a landline for a lot of customers.
markus
Posted: 25 March 2018 15:59:48(UTC)
#41

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Fell Walker;59377 wrote:
Tony Peterson;59375 wrote:
Fell Walker.

You do realise that EE is a division of BT???



I'm just highlighting the changing market and how (hopefully) landlines will become a thing of the past, not passing a comment on BT or any particular company! I was with BT directly until I changed to EE around a year ago FWIW.




The scenario where people drop the landline and go solely mobile data will work for some but unlikely to be a solution for all. Think about how much data a family would get through; gamers with low latency requirements; increase in IP-enabled devices with smart homes.

Commercially I don't think the mobile operators want this at the moment...many high data packages have restrictions on mobile hot spotting and want you to take a dedicated data sim - Vodafone will do you a dedicated data SIM with 30GB data a month for £25 vs PlusNet unlimited fibre (no phone service) £17.49 a month + £50 activation fee. As the data on a mobile operators network grows they need to grow their backhaul circuits....most of which are provided by BT.

Last time I checked as a household we're getting through circa 120GB a month on the broadband router.
1 user thanked markus for this post.
Tony Peterson on 27/03/2018(UTC)
xcity
Posted: 25 March 2018 16:39:59(UTC)
#31

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Tony Peterson;59344 wrote:
I have resisted the temptation to rebuy those share I sold last year,

And this is some of the secret sauce that mechanistic imitation of your system doesn't have. Why wait here, and not there etc
1 user thanked xcity for this post.
Tony Peterson on 27/03/2018(UTC)
kWIKSAVE
Posted: 25 March 2018 18:04:33(UTC)
#44

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BT does not excite me. It will be a long time before £4 is reached again.

It is however probably at a relative nadir now so for ISA income seekers only.

Quite a few folks nowadays have dispensed with landlines.

Is the pension deficit under control ? Looming interest rate hikes may help.

Has it paid too much for football ?

Has Openreach been a millstone around its neck ?
Tony Peterson
Posted: 25 March 2018 18:47:13(UTC)
#45

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xcity

The "why wait" question is simply answered. There were better bargains (even with hindsight).
colin overton
Posted: 27 March 2018 17:32:58(UTC)
#46

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I had a bad experience with BT as a customer many years ago. I eventually received a two page apology letter from a senior manager. I had already left them.
Last year I resigned with BT for phone/BB/TV. It was half the price of Virgin for a similar if slightly inferior package - the TV didn't include Sky sports. I have been pleasantly surprised during the last year in the package and BT's service. I signed today for another year for a slightly better overall package at around half the price per month of my old Virgin deal - Virgin wouldn't give me a better price until after I left them.
I have the option to take, admittedly an expensive Sky Sports package, for 30 days at a time.
I have been impressed with BT and believe they offer a good product/service at a price that Virgin simply can't/will not match. They also offer a pretty good SIM only mobile phone offer equivalent to £5/month for 3G data and unlimited calls/texts.
With such sharp products BT may keep/win customers, a good start to success?
3 users thanked colin overton for this post.
Tony Peterson on 27/03/2018(UTC), Jim S on 27/03/2018(UTC), Slacker on 27/03/2018(UTC)
Tony Peterson
Posted: 27 March 2018 18:01:51(UTC)
#47

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xcity

I am flattered by the idea that I employ some "secret sauce", and I daresay it is true that I sometimes override the "mechanical" reaction I might otherwise have taken to uncertainties provided by price movements.

However, the truth is that I do actually operate in a more mechanical than intuitive manner. I do try to avoid other Marconi moments. Today, for instance, I had intended once again to top up BT just as I topped up (very gratifyingly) GSK last week. However (and this hopefully will provoke even more derision than usual) the mining profits I had intended for BT went to UU instead. From numbers, not sauce.

The sauce is sometimes provided by the Aunt Ada Dooms, who saw something nasty in the woodshed in 1987. When posters on this site start sneering at one or more of the most successful commercial enterprises the country has ever been a home to, I get more interested in increasing our stake, not less.

It seems to work for me. Sauce or no sauce.

2 users thanked Tony Peterson for this post.
Tim D on 27/03/2018(UTC), xcity on 27/03/2018(UTC)
xcity
Posted: 27 March 2018 20:54:40(UTC)
#48

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Tony Peterson;59540 wrote:
I am flattered by the idea that I employ some "secret sauce", and I daresay it is true that I sometimes override the "mechanical" reaction I might otherwise have taken to uncertainties provided by price movements.

However, the truth is that I do actually operate in a more mechanical than intuitive manner. I do try to avoid other Marconi moments.

I think you underplay the value of your interest, experience and acumen.

I think I understand the bones of your system, and believe I could make it work myself - but I don't think I could do it as well as you. Or not anytime soon.

You, I believe, treat most of the things that impact on share prices as 'noise' and have the ability to filter it out and not be influenced by the crowd. A fairly rare attribute, and that, at least, I can do.

Ditto really for Big Boy. I think I understand his system, and could operate like that, but I don't think I could do it as well as he does, even if he describes it as just looking at discounts.


5 users thanked xcity for this post.
Tony Peterson on 27/03/2018(UTC), Jim S on 31/03/2018(UTC), gillyann on 01/04/2018(UTC), Alan Selwood on 01/04/2018(UTC), Kenpen2 on 01/04/2018(UTC)
The Colonel
Posted: 31 March 2018 12:42:37(UTC)
#49

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Would not go near it whilst Patterson is in Charge. Should stick to telephony, broadband etc
Not going off wasting Millions on Football. Their Indian Helplines are a Disaster, their Tarriffs
are not Competitive.
I asked them to take over my Business landline but I asked to retain my tel Number needless to say they changer the number.after a month of "Indian promises" and only when I threatened to publish Pattersons home address which i had found out at some cost was my original number restored, in 2 hours.
Mr Helpful
Posted: 31 March 2018 14:36:14(UTC)
#50

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An investor holding BT.A seems to have lost about 55% of their capital since Jan 16.
But enjoying some dividends.

An investor holding the FTSE 100, even after the recent set-back, over the same period would see capital growth about 25%.
And again enjoying some dividends.

An investor holding a Global Tracker would after the recent set-back, over the same period, in sterling terms see capital growth about 50%.
But little in the way of dividends.

Bearing in mind past performance is no guide to future performance, and comparisons not always apt; when or more correctly at what price or conditions, will BT. begin to justify a place in a total return portfolio?

For us as UK citizens this is a major company and an essential part of our economy infrastructure, so merits some consideration.
As the price sinks ever lower, wondering whether to add BT.A to the Infrastructure investments on the portfolio 'defensive side'.
Is that delirious?
But the chartist side of this investor says "not yet".
2 users thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
Dian on 01/04/2018(UTC), Sara G on 01/04/2018(UTC)
Dian
Posted: 01 April 2018 01:03:56(UTC)
#52

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It had a nice run from 2013 to 2016 and then there had been downtrend from 2016 to 2018. It has underperformed the broader market over the past 18 months. I’m wondering whether BT Group is also a nice bargain candidate.
Joe Soap
Posted: 01 April 2018 07:30:35(UTC)
#53

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Dian;59920 wrote:

It had a nice run from 2013 to 2016 and then there had been downtrend from 2016 to 2018. It has underperformed the broader market over the past 18 months. I’m wondering whether BT Group is also a nice bargain candidate.

Or a value trap?
Mr Helpful
Posted: 03 April 2018 11:11:04(UTC)
#51

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Mr Helpful;59882 wrote:
As the price sinks ever lower, wondering whether to add BT.A to the Infrastructure investments on the portfolio 'defensive side'.
Is that delirious?
But the chartist side of this investor says "not yet".


Taken an intial position this morning.
Hoping to add on further weakness.
As per previous thinking above, included on the defensive side of portfolio, with little or zero long-term growth expected.
Yield useful to boost the defensives overall income.

Now watch BT.A price succumb yet further!
Keith Cobby
Posted: 03 April 2018 11:22:57(UTC)
#54

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BT is a heavily regulated utility with a huge pension deficit (underwritten by the government), and has been sidetracked by competing with Sky for sports rights. It is consequently ex-growth and a value trap.
1 user thanked Keith Cobby for this post.
Mr Helpful on 03/04/2018(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 03 April 2018 13:18:08(UTC)
#55

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Keith Cobby;60048 wrote:
BT is a heavily regulated utility with a huge pension deficit (underwritten by the government), and has been sidetracked by competing with Sky for sports rights. It is consequently ex-growth and a value trap.

"BT is a heavily regulated utility with a huge pension deficit (underwritten by the government), and has been sidetracked by competing with Sky for sports rights"
Agreed (but how much is narrative, how much fundamentals?)
And don't forget to throw in the DEBT !!!
There are problems aplenty.

" It is consequently ex-growth"
Agreed (hence held alongside Bonds, etc as part of the 'defensives'.

"and a value trap"
Quite possibly; but then someone has to hold at some price, or where would we be?
And who are those investors to be?
Decisions are not always an easy yes/no.

Anyway, sincere thanks for that point of view.
Hopefully it will restrain other investors from rushing to follow suit !!!
2 users thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
Harry Trout on 03/04/2018(UTC), Captain Slugwash on 05/04/2018(UTC)
Tony Peterson
Posted: 04 April 2018 13:39:07(UTC)
#56

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I cheerfully acknowledge that whilst Keith Cobby is perfectly right about the importance, in the current climate at least, of being fully invested, he is factually incorrect about those companies he sneers at and calls "ex-growth value traps".

I would invite him to check the destination of his household expenditure. How much of his water, energy, food, clothing, transport, telecommunication, leisure, costs go to UK companies that he sees as "ex growth value traps"?

I benefit immensely from his outgoings to the companies he sneers at. His "ex-growth value traps". What he derides I see as something totally different "sources of generous unearned income".

Consequently I thank him for helping to optimise my new ISA contributions on Friday. I do not yet know what they will be. They may include BT. But I can fairly confidently claim that what I then buy will add two and a half thousand more to the Niagara of untaxed dividends delivered to us by the directly held equities he derides.
1 user thanked Tony Peterson for this post.
Tim D on 04/04/2018(UTC)
Keith Cobby
Posted: 04 April 2018 17:59:15(UTC)
#57

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Tony, I have AA cover but I wouldn't buy the shares!
Tom Mozy
Posted: 04 April 2018 18:12:37(UTC)
#58

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Instad of buying the companies that bill you, buy the companies who you enjoy transacting with.
Nestle, Unilever, Diageo, Dominos Pizza, Britvic, FeverTree.

These are have far superior returns and growth.
Sara G
Posted: 04 April 2018 18:20:03(UTC)
#60

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Oddly enough, I hold BP shares but recently switched to Sky for a cheaper deal - time for them to pay me for a change ;)

I think there are a lot of defensively minded value investors steering clear of BT at the moment because of the pension liabilities, but this (admittedly very large) figure is a rolling estimate, and a potential re-rating this year is likely to bring a downward adjustment due to levelling off life expectancy and rising interest rates / gilt yields. If so, then many might be tempted back.

The other potential factor is Corbyn. Labour have denied having any intentions of expanding their nationalisation plans to the telecoms sector, but Labour and Corbyn / McDonnell don't always speak with the same voice so it remains a small risk that might put off some for now.
Jay Mi
Posted: 04 April 2018 18:27:23(UTC)
#59

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Tom Mozy;60138 wrote:
Instad of buying the companies that bill you, buy the companies who you enjoy transacting with.
Nestle, Unilever, Diageo, Dominos Pizza, Britvic, FeverTree.

These are have far superior returns and growth.


There is nothing enjoyable about Dominos Pizza...

Using that logic I should be investing in WWE, Disney, Burberry, Supercell, Patisereee Valerie and the long list of dividend paying boring companies.
I like boring, as long as it pays and is fairly consistent.
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