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Fun Portfolio - Ideas
Deano
Posted: 10 January 2017 18:43:44(UTC)
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Hi All, A new post.

I have a relatively large, well diversified portfolio that consists of actively managed OEICS across global, EM and UK equities. It is performing well (up 25% in 2016). This is invested across SIPPs and ISAs. I also have a mortgage free house, cash holdings and some business assets/investments. I am still earning.

I would like to start a "fun" portfolio which seeks to take some increased risks (as I can afford to lose the capital, albeit wouldn't want to!) but also possibly have some uncorrelated assets that might provide a good hedge against my main portfolio.

My current macro thinking is that interest rates and inflation will increase through the US and UK, the dollar will strengthen (certainly against the £ and Euro) and global economic growth will remain robust.

Brexit will give volatility throughout Europe and the UK this year and The Donald will cause domestic US shares to perform relatively well.

So my current thoughts are:-

ISP6 - Ishares S&P small cap ETF (Ref Trump Bump - US small cap shares)
CRU1 - Ishares MSCI Russia ETF (Global growth, improving relations with US??)
TBT - Proshares trust ultrashort Treasuries 20 yrs+ (Interest rates going up - so short long dated bonds)
AGCP - ETFS All commodities (Global growth and inflation increasing)

I would appreciate any thoughts, comments or other ideas!

Many thanks


Dian
Posted: 12 January 2017 08:04:37(UTC)
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Deano

Your fun portfolio is going to be kind of different to others. I am also like to keep very small portfolio different to others and also completely different to yours.

Dian

Quote:
Keep your portfolio very different from the broader stock market: John Maynard Keynes
Micawber
Posted: 12 January 2017 08:33:57(UTC)
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Deano, I don't think you're going to have much fun with that, possibly apart from the Russia ETF. Although unlikely to lose much.

If you want to stick with collective investment vehicles and diversify more fun might be had with BRFI (though on a premium which is not healthy), FAS, XFVT ETF, JMC, MNL, ROBG, WOOD.
srg751
Posted: 12 January 2017 09:37:59(UTC)
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Well, Deano,..... FUN ?............ I was going to say,.... Take a look at my secret, ...'Satellite Solutions'.... But it looks like 'fun' may have different interpretations.

Treat yourself.... to a small dose of MNL, ..... A venture off Piste that won't end up in intensive care, but should improve your appetite.

Have fun !

srg751
Posted: 12 January 2017 09:53:35(UTC)
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And if you want to buy some property, Daejan Holdings. (6210 today)...
Deano
Posted: 12 January 2017 10:15:28(UTC)
#6

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Many thanks for your comments - looks like you guys have a different idea of fun to me!

Thanks Micawber for your suggestions - some interesting ones but not areas I know much about, so will do some further research.

I will keep looking and let you know what I decide to go with initially. I expect to trade these ones fairly regularly hence sticking with ITs and ETFs rather than OEICS. I might do individual shares occasionally.

MNL is mentioned twice - one I also looked at recently due to its high discount (like HOT)
King Lodos
Posted: 13 January 2017 16:47:17(UTC)
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Deano;41340 wrote:
So my current thoughts are:-

ISP6 - Ishares S&P small cap ETF (Ref Trump Bump - US small cap shares)
CRU1 - Ishares MSCI Russia ETF (Global growth, improving relations with US??)
TBT - Proshares trust ultrashort Treasuries 20 yrs+ (Interest rates going up - so short long dated bonds)
AGCP - ETFS All commodities (Global growth and inflation increasing)


Four popular trades at the moment .. Russia probably still not popular enough (I've got 14% of my portfolio in it).

Might consider a mining ETF instead of or as well as commodities? Likely to act the same but a more levered play.

Covers mining, oil (Russia), US growth .. Now of course if in a month's time we realise the current market perception's wrong – stranger things have happened – all those trade could go south sharply .. I'd probably have stop-losses to get you out of the trades set at points that tell you you were wrong .. As traders might say: it's not whether you're right or wrong, it's how much you make when you're right, and how much you lose when you're wrong .. What you don't want to do is go into any speculative trade without a clear plan and exit strategy – retail investors tend to sit and wait for things to reverse (fear and ego); professionals cut bad trades before they make much of a dent.


Deano
Posted: 15 January 2017 12:13:49(UTC)
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Thanks King Lodos

The recent "Fake News" incident may have hurt the Russia play in the short term as DT will now have to prove that he is not in Putin's pocket (assuming he isn't!)

I will look at a mining ETF/IT as well.

As I intend to trade this portfolio on a more active basis than my main portfolio (which is on the whole a buy and hold one) I have stop losses set and also target prices on the up side.

Also, I have specific reasons/views for buying these funds, so if any of these change that is another reason for selling.

I might also look at adding some emerging market or frontier market exposure
King Lodos
Posted: 15 January 2017 16:48:43(UTC)
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Just personally, I'd stay away from target prices ... They make every bet too binary: 10% loss or 20% gain?

I don't know any successful traders who use them .. Really you want a way to limit downside but *not* limit upside – you actually need those occasional 200, 500, 2000% returns to compensate bad trades .. I'd say 90% of success in investing comes from being able to ride winners .. I always say index funds are so difficult to beat because they don't do any profit taking.

Essential books I'd recommend anyone actively investing: The Art of Execution, and the Market Wizards series.


Jon Snow
Posted: 15 January 2017 18:57:50(UTC)
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I have two personal accounts with HL, Acc 1 is for main investments (around 95%), holding SIPP, ISAs etc. Acc 2 holds the other 5% of investments in a fund and share account and is purely for my "fun" portfolio.

I trade this maybe once a month mainly holding OEICS because there are no trading charges or spreads to nibble away at your profits and I rotate around 4 or 5 funds depending on price and XD dates, it's really just for fun and to see if I can make it work.

I don't think it will "work" in my favour long term but certainly since September 2016 I've bagged a decent dividend payout each month that can be reinvested or used elsewhere and made a modest capital gain.

There really is something satisfying about buying CUM waiting for XD and selling at some point for the price you bought in at having bagged the dividend in the meantime.

It shouldn't work in an efficient market but it does, sometimes. There are ways to take advantage of pricing anomalies. Also if the pricing isn't in my favour I'll just hold and take the natural dividends until the pricing anomalies reappear. As I said above and because we're talking about small (~1% - 3%) share price movements many Investment Trusts don't work in this model due to the spread, it kills the deals. OEICS on the other hand, perfect.

Obviously I can't go into specifics on this one ;-)

As to suggestions for your fun portfolio, how about some -

Robotics
Frontier markets
Private Equity
Genetics
Keith Hilton
Posted: 15 January 2017 19:38:05(UTC)
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Jon Snow;41641 wrote:
I have two personal accounts with HL, Acc 1 is for main investments (around 95%), holding SIPP, ISAs etc. Acc 2 holds the other 5% of investments in a fund and share account and is purely for my "fun" portfolio.

I trade this maybe once a month mainly holding OEICS because there are no trading charges or spreads to nibble away at your profits and I rotate around 4 or 5 funds depending on price and XD dates, it's really just for fun and to see if I can make it work.

I don't think it will "work" in my favour long term but certainly since September 2016 I've bagged a decent dividend payout each month that can be reinvested or used elsewhere and made a modest capital gain.

There really is something satisfying about buying CUM waiting for XD and selling at some point for the price you bought in at having bagged the dividend in the meantime.

It shouldn't work in an efficient market but it does, sometimes. There are ways to take advantage of pricing anomalies. Also if the pricing isn't in my favour I'll just hold and take the natural dividends until the pricing anomalies reappear. As I said above and because we're talking about small (~1% - 3%) share price movements many Investment Trusts don't work in this model due to the spread, it kills the deals. OEICS on the other hand, perfect.

Obviously I can't go into specifics on this one ;-)


I'm not sure how this can work reliably long-term, on such small margins, given that you can't be sure of the price you're going to get.
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Jon Snow on 15/01/2017(UTC)
Jon Snow
Posted: 15 January 2017 22:16:46(UTC)
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Keith Hilton;41645 wrote:
I'm not sure how this can work reliably long-term, on such small margins, given that you can't be sure of the price you're going to get.


Keith,

Quite agree with you and it's not my usual approach which is pretty conservative. Yet, at present, it is working! I look at it as a little bonus that can stop anytime soon.

I suspect it has happened because of a unique set of circumstances, so it may be a one off. I'll ride my luck on it though and as I said, I'm no more exposed to downside risk than normal, perhaps less exposed to market risk.

On the other hand it could be the $10 bill left on the pavement, I doubt it though, yet while it's there I'll pick it up.
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Keith Hilton on 15/01/2017(UTC)
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