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MNL
dyfed
Posted: 08 November 2016 10:38:35(UTC)
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Bought into this a few months ago just because I liked it's portfolio (and it had a good discount). Has done well since. Thinking of buying more, but it's previous track record quite poor. Any thoughts?
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srg751 on 08/11/2016(UTC), Mr Helpful on 07/01/2017(UTC)
Redundant (Old Timer?)
Posted: 08 November 2016 11:02:58(UTC)
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Dyfed,

Thank you for flagging this one up. I have never ever seen it on any list I have looked at or even mentioned before. I even had to see what MNL stood for! Thus I too, will be interested in what others think.
Tom Mozy
Posted: 08 November 2016 12:03:30(UTC)
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The portfolio is considerably different to what it was 4-5 years ago.

Info tech, healthcare and consumer staples the top 3 sectors.

Long term the trust has a very very poor record. I think its had the same manager....

Nice discount and good looking portfolio, but porfolio activity over the years seems to have killed it.

If it was my guess, betting on the managers record, Info tech is about to crash....
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dyfed on 08/11/2016(UTC), Redundant (Old Timer?) on 08/11/2016(UTC), dlp6666 on 04/01/2017(UTC)
srg751
Posted: 08 November 2016 17:07:11(UTC)
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dyfed;39177 wrote:
Bought into this a few months ago just because I liked it's portfolio (and it had a good discount). Has done well since. Thinking of buying more, but it's previous track record quite poor. Any thoughts?


Well spotted Dyfed. Never heard of it to be honest.
It's a way to buy Amazon, Alphaebet, Microsoft, Facebook, SMT, Apple and Polar Capital Tech Trust at a discount to book.
I'll look at it tonight but on face value it could well find a place in my SIPP.


2 users thanked srg751 for this post.
c brown on 08/11/2016(UTC), dlp6666 on 04/01/2017(UTC)
dyfed
Posted: 08 November 2016 19:23:32(UTC)
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Good point by Tom Mozy about the manager (also very entertaining but lets hope info tech doesn't crash). As I understand it from their annual report the investment manager is in effect a majority shareholder in MNL. Not sure if this should reassure us about the change of portfolio or whether it's irrelevant....
srg751
Posted: 08 November 2016 20:37:42(UTC)
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I've managed to get to the bottom of most of it.

In 2014 Peter Stanley, the trust manager, invested heavily in cyclicals. This proved to be a mistimed trade. He had to apologise to shareholders. Then, in 2015, he moved into consumer stocks,.... again, .....mistimed,... and again an apology to shareholders.
He then moved into I.T stocks. The main holdings now being Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphaebet, Facebook, SMT and Polar Capital Tech trust.
Earlier this year Stanley bought just short of 2 million quids worth of the trusts shares taking his holding above the 50% mark. This means that he has nearly 33 million of his own money tied up in the trust.

My question is,..... How does a manager with such a poor track record accumulate that sort of wealth ?

Moving on to the here and now, if the manager decides to stop flipping, then the current holdings are to be had at a discount to book of over 20%. That's seriously cheap for some quality stock.

This is a SERIOUS contender for my SIPP. The discount is purely down to the managers past performance. However, looking at his current Pf, I don't think that even he could mess this one up.
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Sara G on 08/11/2016(UTC), c brown on 08/11/2016(UTC), Guest on 09/11/2016(UTC), dlp6666 on 04/01/2017(UTC), Patrick Smyth on 10/03/2017(UTC), gillyann on 07/05/2017(UTC)
dyfed
Posted: 08 November 2016 20:59:08(UTC)
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srg751;39194 wrote:

I've managed to get to the bottom of most of it.

In 2014 Peter Stanley, the trust manager, invested heavily in cyclicals. This proved to be a mistimed trade. He had to apologise to shareholders. Then, in 2015, he moved into consumer stocks,.... again, .....mistimed,... and again an apology to shareholders.
He then moved into I.T stocks. The main holdings now being Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Alphaebet, Facebook, SMT and Polar Capital Tech trust.
Earlier this year Stanley bought just short of 2 million quids worth of the trusts shares taking his holding above the 50% mark. This means that he has nearly 33 million of his own money tied up in the trust.

My question is,..... How does a manager with such a poor track record accumulate that sort of wealth ?

Moving on to the here and now, if the manager decides to stop flipping, then the current holdings are to be had at a discount to book of over 20%. That's seriously cheap for some quality stock.

This is a SERIOUS contender for my SIPP. The discount is purely down to the managers past performance. However, looking at his current Pf, I don't think that even he could mess this one up.



Hi, I don't understand it quite like this and I have a different name in the frame here - I think you are talking about the chair not the manager - but my conclusions similar to yours.
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Law Man on 29/12/2016(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 08 November 2016 21:00:43(UTC)
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Sounds interesting... my concern would be that there is no guarantee that the discount would narrow. The fact that it is not a well known Trust with assets of 'only' £77m may suggest it is less liquid than some of the bigger ITs.

Think I'd be more inclined to wait and buy SMT or Polar Tech should markets and the $ fall in the coming days / weeks.
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c brown on 08/11/2016(UTC)
dyfed
Posted: 08 November 2016 21:12:38(UTC)
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Sara G;39196 wrote:
Sounds interesting... my concern would be that there is no guarantee that the discount would narrow. The fact that it is not a well known Trust with assets of 'only' £77m may suggest it is less liquid than some of the bigger ITs.

Think I'd be more inclined to wait and buy SMT or Polar Tech should markets and the $ fall in the coming days / weeks.


Wise words! Is there usually a link between the buy/sell spread and the liquidity of the IT? Interested generally, not just for MNL, although this has a narrow spread
Sara G
Posted: 08 November 2016 21:31:00(UTC)
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I think there is a link, but interestingly some larger Trusts seem to have wider spreads but are traded quite frequently (although in practice with HL I often find I get a price around the mid-point).

I notice that trading volumes for MNL are quite low - about 6 trades today if the HL data is correct and for quite small amounts, which suggests demand for it is low.

Another thing to check is the discount buy-back policy - some Trusts will actively buy back to keep discounts under control.
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c brown on 08/11/2016(UTC)
Mickey
Posted: 08 November 2016 22:19:26(UTC)
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Horrible performance record and not a member of the AIC, what's to recommend it? It has done very well this year, especially for something in the UK All Companies sector but unless you think the discount WILL narrow then it's a gamble that performance will be sustained. Could be one that proves the tenet 'past performance is no guide to the future'
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Guest on 08/01/2017(UTC)
Keith Hilton
Posted: 08 November 2016 22:23:41(UTC)
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Looking at relative performances, I'll be sticking with ATT.
srg751
Posted: 09 November 2016 09:07:47(UTC)
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If I entered a race on the back of a donkey and came last, would you then use that information and assume I would come last in the next race, even though I'd changed my mount to a thoroughbred ?

If you did, and you were a bookie,you'd be bankrupt after one race, because the punters did there homework, and you didn't. . Hence the phrase .....Past performance is no guide to the future.

And that's where the average investor in funds comes unstuck, although he or she won't admit it, 80% of their research is based on just that..? PAST performance, even though the holdings within the fund have been changed.

For me, Dyfeds done a good job here and I'm thankful to him for sharing his research. I've just bought some because I think it's a no brainer. Hopefully other investors catch on over time and then that will narrow the discount. At the end of the day, just look at the companies I've bought on a 23% discount. And I've bagged them at yesterday's price.

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dlp6666 on 04/01/2017(UTC), Guest on 08/01/2017(UTC)
dyfed
Posted: 09 November 2016 09:13:19(UTC)
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srg751;39223 wrote:

If I entered a race on the back of a donkey and came last, would you then use that information and assume I would come last in the next race, even though I'd changed my mount to a thoroughbred ?

If you did, and you were a bookie,you'd be bankrupt after one race, because the punters did there homework, and you didn't. . Hence the phrase .....Past performance is no guide to the future.

And that's where the average investor in funds comes unstuck, although he or she won't admit it, 80% of their research is based on just that..? PAST performance, even though the holdings within the fund have been changed.

For me, Dyfeds done a good job here and I'm thankful to him for sharing his research. I've just bought some because I think it's a no brainer. Hopefully other investors catch on over time and then that will narrow the discount. At the end of the day, just look at the companies I've bought on a 23% discount. And I've bagged them at yesterday's price.


I'm a "her" actually....
5 users thanked dyfed for this post.
c brown on 09/11/2016(UTC), srg751 on 09/11/2016(UTC), Micawber on 04/01/2017(UTC), dlp6666 on 04/01/2017(UTC), gillyann on 07/05/2017(UTC)
srg751
Posted: 09 November 2016 10:22:59(UTC)
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Dyfed. Major apology.

Might think about getting a shave tho.

F this MNL thing goes belly up mind, he or she, I'll be round there !!!!
Mickey
Posted: 09 November 2016 10:43:55(UTC)
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I am grateful to the OP for bringing this to my attention but will not be joining you on the ride. I am however highly amused that srg751 knows that 80% of investors only use past performance.
srg751
Posted: 09 November 2016 12:03:22(UTC)
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Titter ye not Mickey boy,
according to II, 80% of investors polled 'who use funds'. as primary investment vehicles make their choice using past performance alone.
Now, was there a point to your post ? Or, was that it ??
srg751
Posted: 09 November 2016 12:06:49(UTC)
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Mickey;39232 wrote:
I am however highly amused that srg751 knows that 80% of investors only use past performance.


And I didn't even say that. So you obviously jumped to a defensive position there Mickey boy.... ha ha.

What I did say in an earlier post though was off the back of 2 hours research pertaining to the Trust in question. Research which I then shared.
It's silly unfounded posts like yours that make me think.....stuff it.
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martin hargan on 04/03/2017(UTC)
Mickey
Posted: 09 November 2016 13:03:40(UTC)
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srg751;39235 wrote:


Titter ye not Mickey boy,
according to II, 80% of investors polled 'who use funds'. as primary investment vehicles make their choice using past performance alone.
Now, was there a point to your post ? Or, was that it ??

Indeed there was but I am smiling even more if you are relying on polls as a base for accuracy. Your use of historical analysis concerning investors made me chuckle simply because you derided historical analysis :-)
Please stop calling me boy if you don't mind.

CUEBALL
Posted: 09 November 2016 15:55:40(UTC)
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It's still there

"OK"

Just been out checking a piece of land I bought recently....

Anyway ...be good practice that Stevie....So near thanks giving 'an all'....

"Hey Mickey" in fairness I too thought you were a boy......

"lock her up ...lock her up........" LOL....

Calm down teammates shouting insults never get's you anywhere.....

"Shut up slaphead"

......well with the odd exception

I wonder if Tony needs his knives sharpening

God bless you all..and

God bless the United States of America....

You see...

Like I said....."they've "Gone with the wind"....2

X








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