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Chris Ould
Posted: 18 May 2017 06:56:38(UTC)

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Micawber;46846 wrote:
Chris Ould;46839 wrote:

Noticed the recent IPO Alpha FX Group is being backed by some of the big boys in the Small Cap world...any thoughts?


Thanks for flagging this up. I don't normally go for IPOs until they've settled down a year after launch. But on the face of the numbers AFX looks interesting and the story is attractive. What research and information-gathering have you done? I note that a number of institutions took a stake and Old Mutual has been buying. Does OM account for the bulk of the 57% rise since launch? In short, hard to say whether the shares look cheap or expensive at today's price, and an investment would be a leap of faith - but in the steamy Brexit climate approaching, a FX corporate hedging service for SMEs with a high ROE (before the IPO raised £30m) has attractions. Watchlisted while I think about it.

What do others think?



Similar research and very similar conclusion...(Soros & Hargreave Hale also grabbed a slice).
Apparently, it has 0.26% market share of the UK corporate FX market, so opportunity to take business from the large Banks, with a 90%+ client retention rate...so definitely worth watching.
2 users thanked Chris Ould for this post.
Micawber on 18/05/2017(UTC), c brown on 24/05/2017(UTC)
colin overton
Posted: 18 May 2017 08:15:05(UTC)

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Dear Micawber, There are reasons not to invest. Poor div, shares up over 40% in the year and the uncertain future re EU and Britain's place in the world. I am impressed with their "customer model" and believe that the pub sector is still full of weak examples with strange practises.
In a future where people have less disposable income I wonder if they are going to stop going to pubs?
Wetherspoons has shown itself reasonably flexible in improving and expanding its product line (not always to my liking). I was in a very popular non-Wetherspoons pub yesterday lunch. It was busy, the beer and lunch bill was 100% more than a typical Wetherspoons. It is in a posh area and people were drinking champagne. I quote this atypical example to contrast with almost every Wetherspoons I've been in over the last 4 years.
I am undecided whether to plunge, but I have a feeling that W's growth is not finished yet.
Sara G
Posted: 18 May 2017 18:22:55(UTC)

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chazza;46820 wrote:
MNL is back on my radar. The NAV has been rising steadily even as the share price has slipped back. The discount has now widened to over 12%, whereas discount on ATT has come back to around 4%.
MNL is not the screaming bargain it was back in December, but it still has a high quality tech-heavy portfolio.


MNL discount now over 13% and sp below the level I sold out at (despite the spread)...

I assume this is related to Trump / Russia, but if so it feels like an overreaction and while I can see that it could signal the end of the 'Trump Trade' into cyclicals, it's not clear to me what the negative impact would be for the tech firms MNL holds... If this carries on I'll be buying back in - and (if the $ falls against sterling) potentially topping up other US holdings.

For the brave, Russia is also looking cheaper again - JRS discount is edging towards 17% and PEG is 0.41.
5 users thanked Sara G for this post.
chazza on 18/05/2017(UTC), Mickey on 18/05/2017(UTC), Keith Hilton on 18/05/2017(UTC), jvl on 19/05/2017(UTC), c brown on 24/05/2017(UTC)
srg751
Posted: 18 May 2017 20:25:13(UTC)

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Russia was cheap when I sold it. It's lost a further 16% since then.
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Micawber on 18/05/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 18 May 2017 21:48:32(UTC)

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srg751;46886 wrote:
Russia was cheap when I sold it. It's lost a further 16% since then.


Ditto. It's going to be very difficult for Trump to move towards lifting sanctions, obviously. And there's US shale limiting the upside for Russian oil. Presidential elections next year, Putin has yet to confirm he will stand again. Today's shenanigans in Brazil are another reminder of the effects of corruption/governance on the sound functioning of markets in the Brics/EM.... All in all, these things may outweigh a backward-looking technical analysis for quite some while...
2 users thanked Micawber for this post.
Mickey on 19/05/2017(UTC), Mike Anthony on 20/05/2017(UTC)
colin overton
Posted: 19 May 2017 05:40:22(UTC)

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Not being au fait with many (small?) ITs, I have to look up the EPIC codes. I am looking around for new investment ops, particularly "recovery bargains" I rather fancy HOT and MNL, both areas I'm not in.
I'm slightly confused by references to Russia with the EPIC codes mentioned. I have been an investor in Neptune (+/- greater) Russia UT for quite a few years. A can't recall why I initially bought (!!!), might have been a step from an Underdeveloped Euro trust I had bought and then sold. However over the last year its up over 40% (60% from low to high), so I'm surprised that people are still talking of "Russian losses"? Brexit seemed to kick this trust into life (as many?) and the more stable, slightly higher ores/oil price/"horizon" have sustained its price rise. I have sold most of my holding, timed nicely before the recent down turn. I'm unsure how Russia will play in the next year or two, but that is true of many if not all investments. I bought as a recovery punt and I guess it has recovered.
1 user thanked colin overton for this post.
c brown on 24/05/2017(UTC)
TJL
Posted: 19 May 2017 07:34:20(UTC)

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Interesting that HOT gets a mention again.
I have held HOT since 2013 (not long in investing terms I know), but apart from a period some time ago when it was showing a decent profit, which subsequently trickled away, I have spent most of the time in negative territory, so recently decided to take the 6% profit showing on the purchase price I paid and have moved to BRSC.
2 users thanked TJL for this post.
dyfed on 19/05/2017(UTC), c brown on 24/05/2017(UTC)
S Dobbo
Posted: 19 May 2017 08:42:31(UTC)

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TJL;46903 wrote:
Interesting that HOT gets a mention again.
I have held HOT since 2013 (not long in investing terms I know), but apart from a period some time ago when it was showing a decent profit, which subsequently trickled away, I have spent most of the time in negative territory, so recently decided to take the 6% profit showing on the purchase price I paid and have moved to BRSC.


I think most people see HOT as a play on discount as it seems to yoyo up and down, rather than a long term hold. Buy when the discount is large and sell when it's closed.
3 users thanked S Dobbo for this post.
TJL on 19/05/2017(UTC), dyfed on 19/05/2017(UTC), c brown on 24/05/2017(UTC)
Jim Thompson
Posted: 19 May 2017 09:11:09(UTC)

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Re the discussion on Wetherpoons, I think it provides a staple in life!

There are two pubs within walking distance of my house, one is a Brewers Fayre (cheap pub grub) and the other a Vintage Inn (contemporary british food). The Vintage Inn has recently closed, Brewers is normally very busy. When wages are depressed, people still need to eat and want simple treats.

Spoons are even better placed than Brewers as they have a wider selection of beers. All the spoons pubs I have been to have English staff. As long as they can make the new minimum wage work then crack on - and enjoy your research at the same time!
colin overton
Posted: 19 May 2017 09:27:33(UTC)

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Thanks Jim, I will and am! 3 good pints (Blonde) and lunchtime curries yesterday for £21.50. Pleasant staff and surroundings, a nice stop on a canal walk. At 12.30 this pub was almost empty, by 2.00pm when we left it was almost full!
Investment-wise I am still dithering and will continue to watch, perhaps waiting for weakness. Guess I could put in a cheeky buy at 950p bid?
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c brown on 24/05/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 23 May 2017 13:03:09(UTC)

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Anyone explain why YouGov has fallen during the past few weeks? It's a while since I held it, but it's still on my watchlist and seems to be heading into buyable territory.

Investec is reported in RNS as having bought a bit recently, but there doesn't seem to be institutional selling pressure. The dollar has gone down & pound has risen since YOU's last statement, so the worth of its US revenues (around 42% IIRC) may have declined slightly in this half year; it had a good run earlier this year so there might have been some retail investors taking profits as soon as it started to come off the boil.

It's a candidate for my new AIM IHT ISA portfolio (decent track record, dividend payer, growth in a modern sector (digital, data, brands) - a share with a future.
3 users thanked Micawber for this post.
dyfed on 23/05/2017(UTC), Guest on 23/05/2017(UTC), c brown on 24/05/2017(UTC)
dyfed
Posted: 24 May 2017 15:10:43(UTC)

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Any views on CAPITA - sorry I know it's a bit mundane! I used to encounter them as business process outsourcers and was impressed - though it was a while back - and on the basis of this I bought a small amount when they crashed a few months ago. Since then they have rumbled along not doing very much, but they have a very respectable lot of owners, including Woodford. I see that they are "resimplyfing their business model" but I don't really know what went wrong - I assume they over extended? They go ex-div tomorrow so probably about time to buy more or sell up with a very small profit.
Any thoughts?
colin overton
Posted: 24 May 2017 17:28:01(UTC)

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I had experience of Capita when acting as an executor of a will. There were old actual share certificates to deal with. Capita were the registrars. They were dreadful to deal with, unhelpful, excessively bureaucratic and had no customer complaints system at all. I would never have anything to do with them, ever again.
1 user thanked colin overton for this post.
dyfed on 24/05/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 25 May 2017 11:43:20(UTC)

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Micawber;47097 wrote:
Anyone explain why YouGov has fallen during the past few weeks? It's a while since I held it, but it's still on my watchlist and seems to be heading into buyable territory.

Investec is reported in RNS as having bought a bit recently, but there doesn't seem to be institutional selling pressure. The dollar has gone down & pound has risen since YOU's last statement, so the worth of its US revenues (around 42% IIRC) may have declined slightly in this half year; it had a good run earlier this year so there might have been some retail investors taking profits as soon as it started to come off the boil.

It's a candidate for my new AIM IHT ISA portfolio (decent track record, dividend payer, growth in a modern sector (digital, data, brands) - a share with a future.


Well, I did put a successful limit bid in first thing this morning, and lo, it's since gone up 6.5% and I am in profit already. The sun is shining.... Evidently other buyers out there have woken up .
Micawber
Posted: 25 May 2017 11:46:54(UTC)

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Chris Ould;46848 wrote:
Micawber;46846 wrote:
Chris Ould;46839 wrote:

Noticed the recent IPO Alpha FX Group is being backed by some of the big boys in the Small Cap world...any thoughts?


Thanks for flagging this up. I don't normally go for IPOs until they've settled down a year after launch. But on the face of the numbers AFX looks interesting and the story is attractive. What research and information-gathering have you done? I note that a number of institutions took a stake and Old Mutual has been buying. Does OM account for the bulk of the 57% rise since launch? In short, hard to say whether the shares look cheap or expensive at today's price, and an investment would be a leap of faith - but in the steamy Brexit climate approaching, a FX corporate hedging service for SMEs with a high ROE (before the IPO raised £30m) has attractions. Watchlisted while I think about it.

What do others think?



Similar research and very similar conclusion...(Soros & Hargreave Hale also grabbed a slice).
Apparently, it has 0.26% market share of the UK corporate FX market, so opportunity to take business from the large Banks, with a 90%+ client retention rate...so definitely worth watching.


After a little further thought I did open a position in AFX on 18 May. So far zigzagging up 3.86%. I'll take a year's view. Thank you, Chris.
Chris Ould
Posted: 26 May 2017 08:59:20(UTC)

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Glad it was of use to you Micawber.

Only recently started to trade individual small caps, taking up roughly 10% of portfolio.
Currently holding WJG, SFR, SXX, (all value small caps), AFX (my first growth).

Any opinions always welcome.
Sara G
Posted: 14 June 2017 18:24:28(UTC)

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I see the discount on NAS is widening again... anyone tempted to top up?

I'm assuming the large chunk in US Treasuries will be helpful if sterling falls further, but am otherwise uncertain regarding future prospects. At least the manager is able to invest in the US if the UK were to start to decline as some fear.

Chris Ould
Posted: 14 June 2017 19:39:31(UTC)

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I have had NAS for a couple of years, principally because of a big discount which i felt could narrow, but also because it seemed to be a fairly steady ship in comparison to some other smaller company IT's which i held at the time (HSL / SDV).

This and IPU are the only small cap IT's i now hold (which by coincidence, are also part of Capital Gearing's portfolio). Would i top up now...probably not, but will certainly hold.
1 user thanked Chris Ould for this post.
Sara G on 14/06/2017(UTC)
dyfed
Posted: 14 June 2017 22:25:45(UTC)

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Sara G;47946 wrote:
I see the discount on NAS is widening again... anyone tempted to top up?

I'm assuming the large chunk in US Treasuries will be helpful if sterling falls further, but am otherwise uncertain regarding future prospects. At least the manager is able to invest in the US if the UK were to start to decline as some fear.



I am holding with a fairly generous stop loss and not topping up. I am OK with the US Treasuries but I am concerned thats others won't be, perhaps causing the price to fall, also is the business model workable in that they can't find companies to invest in?
2 users thanked dyfed for this post.
Sara G on 15/06/2017(UTC), Mickey on 15/06/2017(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 15 June 2017 07:25:14(UTC)

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That's a good point, dyfed. I suppose the alternative view of that is that Mr Mills is being patient and it's good that he won't invest until he sees a good opportunity... I think I'm feeling ambivalent towards it at the moment because his recent positive statement about future prospects sounded a tad luke warm - and the alternative view of that is that he's being honest! I'll hold for now, but will monitor it closely. (I bet Cueball is topping up though!)
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Mickey on 15/06/2017(UTC), dyfed on 15/06/2017(UTC)
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