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Jon Snow
Posted: 18 March 2017 13:15:33(UTC)

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dyfed;44758 wrote:
Sara G;44753 wrote:
I notice that the discount on NAS has widened again to almost 19% and sp has dipped... Could be an opportunity to top up?
.


I don't hold any and interested in a good opportunity to buy in. See they have 27% in US Treasury bills, which I found a bit disconcerting: any thoughts?


A safe home to park cash awaiting suitable investment opportunities maybe?
CUEBALL
Posted: 21 March 2017 21:24:49(UTC)

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..Not be long now...another 24000 shares yesterday..well... wouldn't back against him...scored a couple of 'goals' this week already.

x
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Sara G on 21/03/2017(UTC)
Dian
Posted: 26 March 2017 07:53:06(UTC)

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Quote:
Royal Mail PLC(RMG) ,EasyJet plc(EZJ),Anglo American plc(AAL) and McCarthy & Stone PLC(MCS)


Are they bargains?
Sara G
Posted: 12 May 2017 12:07:51(UTC)

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Anyone else thinking of buying back/ more BT now the sp has had another wobble? I notice it's back up about 2% this morning - is that Tony Peterson topping up I wonder?... ;)
S_M
Posted: 12 May 2017 16:54:56(UTC)

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Sara G;46639 wrote:
Anyone else thinking of buying back/ more BT now the sp has had another wobble? I notice it's back up about 2% this morning - is that Tony Peterson topping up I wonder?... ;)


In a word no, I fail to comprehend how you make money out of a share that does nothing but fall over the last 12 months.

That's before you look at the fundamentals of the company, it's poor customer service and it's increasing reliance on the pay TV market to fund organic growth.

If BT do not maintain the rights to the Champions League in the next round of bidding, expect the SP to come under further pressure. For sure Sky won't be ball watching this time if you pardon the pun.

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Sara G on 12/05/2017(UTC), Micawber on 13/05/2017(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 12 May 2017 17:15:12(UTC)

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I always remind myself: most stocks lose investors money .. In an index, it's typically 25% of stocks responsible for over 100% of returns (the other 75% net losers).

I think you'd have to know BT's worth more than it's currently trading at (and Buffett's suggestion: that you shouldn't invest unless you'd be keen to own the company if markets closed tmrw and you had to hold for 50 years), or wait till the trend's reversed, and buy with positive momentum and reasonable valuations.

My skepticism on investors who catch dips is that, while it often works, you inevitably will encounter stocks that just keep falling – which makes it a bit like a Martingale Strategy .. If you don't have a system of cutting losers, you'll eventually give a lot of profits back catching falling knives.
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Sara G on 12/05/2017(UTC), Mr Helpful on 13/05/2017(UTC), Alan Selwood on 13/05/2017(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 12 May 2017 17:56:08(UTC)

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Thanks S_M and KL... I agree. Following the Italian accounting scandal, I think there was always a strong likelihood that the market had overreacted and the 10% bounce vindicated that view, but I'm not pushing my luck this time.

colin overton
Posted: 12 May 2017 20:34:19(UTC)

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I continue to be impressed by the footfall in Wetherspoon's pubs. The beer is cheap and good, the food likewise tasty. If we are moving into uncertain and potentially poorer times, the JD model could be one that will prosper. The pubs themselves are a mixed bag, but some and I would say many (particularly more recent acquisitions) are nice places to be. They are also moving into hotels more and more.
I notice that the "euro-brokers" don't seems to think much of JDW. For example Berenberg and DB have been telling people to sell for a while with target forecasts as low as 600p, JDW closed today at 1050p! It's true that the Divs are below 2%, but well covered.
I think I'll track and investigate before taking the plunge?


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Colin Deakins on 13/05/2017(UTC)
srg751
Posted: 13 May 2017 06:13:42(UTC)

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Colin.....Re Wetherspoons...

The business model is 'no frills and tight margins'.. They are now struggling to maintain the margin/profit ratio and the price increases have been very noticeable.
Probably one for investors to sell now.
colin overton
Posted: 13 May 2017 07:37:53(UTC)

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I agree that Weatherspoon's is no longer "cheap". But if last Thursday lunch time is anything to go by their nicer pubs are very full. Beer still £1-2 per pint lower than nearest rivals. Two decent meals and two pints ~ £20. Can taste before drinking, gone in most pubs.
Income figures not too bad. Might be difficult to keep growing perhaps. Figures not too bad, P/E ~20

Income Statement in British pounds for last 5 years
:
24/07/2016 26/07/2015 27/07/2014 28/07/2013 29/07/2012

Revenue: 1,595.20 1,513.92 1,409.33 1,280.93 1,197.13

Profit (PBIT) 66.05 58.73 78.36 57.14 58.88

I still may take a punt, pity about the low div..
Alan Selwood
Posted: 13 May 2017 22:33:56(UTC)

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Wetherspoons took a dip when the higher minimum wage came in.

This suggests that margins are thin and any adverse news will have a negative effect.

Youngs Brewery always seems to get better ratings from analysts, AND it's on AIM, so no stamp duty, and potential IHT saving at some point. (However, I do not hold any of them).

There was a cartoon circulating many decades ago showing a man with pocket linings showing - obviously broke - and he says something like: "I always sell goods cheaply". When I am evaluating shares with a view to purchase, I want ones that don't need to cut prices to the bone, because they own patents, or dominate their market, or in some way run a business that's difficult to compete with, even if you use lots of money to do so. Terry Smith has very similar ideas. He does not invest in Wetherspoons.
dyfed
Posted: 14 May 2017 06:56:26(UTC)

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colin overton;46665 wrote:
I continue to be impressed by the footfall in Wetherspoon's pubs. The beer is cheap and good, the food likewise tasty. The pubs themselves are a mixed bag, but some and I would say many (particularly more recent acquisitions) are nice places to be.
I think I'll track and investigate before taking the plunge?




Seems to me that u should keep "investigating" - check 'em out on the ground - you're obviously enjoying it!
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Richard Lambert on 14/05/2017(UTC)
chazza
Posted: 14 May 2017 09:38:46(UTC)

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HOT is beginning to look interesting again. NAV has been rising steadily while share price has been slowly sinking. Discount now over 17%.
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Mickey on 14/05/2017(UTC), Sara G on 14/05/2017(UTC), S Dobbo on 14/05/2017(UTC), dyfed on 14/05/2017(UTC), Micawber on 14/05/2017(UTC), what me, worry? on 16/05/2017(UTC), Bruce J. on 17/05/2017(UTC)
Alan Selwood
Posted: 14 May 2017 23:34:27(UTC)

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HSL got a similar mention in the press on Saturday.
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Mickey on 15/05/2017(UTC), what me, worry? on 16/05/2017(UTC), Bellabeck on 18/05/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 15 May 2017 13:18:34(UTC)

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Well, Sophos turned out to be a bargain - up 7% this morning, and about 80% in the 15 months I've owned shares in it. The side-effects of ransomware attacks etc..... Holding for the longer term.
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dyfed on 17/05/2017(UTC)
chazza
Posted: 17 May 2017 11:04:39(UTC)

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MNL is back on my radar. The NAV has been rising steadily even as the share price has slipped back. The discount has now widened to over 12%, whereas discount on ATT has come back to around 4%.
MNL is not the screaming bargain it was back in December, but it still has a high quality tech-heavy portfolio.
3 users thanked chazza for this post.
dyfed on 17/05/2017(UTC), Bruce J. on 17/05/2017(UTC), Sara G on 18/05/2017(UTC)
Chris Ould
Posted: 17 May 2017 20:10:05(UTC)

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Micawber;46749 wrote:
Well, Sophos turned out to be a bargain - up 7% this morning, and about 80% in the 15 months I've owned shares in it. The side-effects of ransomware attacks etc..... Holding for the longer term.


Well done Micawber...that was a good call!

Noticed the recent IPO Alpha FX Group is being backed by some of the big boys in the Small Cap world...any thoughts?
colin overton
Posted: 18 May 2017 05:35:16(UTC)

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Off to another Wetherspoons today, my research continues! This establishment is pleasant, being in a comfortable Cheshire town. I'll try a new city pub with friends on Saturday.
It seems that Wetherspoons is not for everyone as an investment or pub, a sign of these divisive times? I suspect that Brokers are not easy embarrassed by a prediction of 600p turning into a 1000p price per share reality - by the way the 600p "target" still seems to stand!
Still undecided as what to do re investment, as a lunch time stop Ws is hard to beat on value and formula - it's Curry Club Thursday!
Micawber
Posted: 18 May 2017 06:08:02(UTC)

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Chris Ould;46839 wrote:

Noticed the recent IPO Alpha FX Group is being backed by some of the big boys in the Small Cap world...any thoughts?


Thanks for flagging this up. I don't normally go for IPOs until they've settled down a year after launch. But on the face of the numbers AFX looks interesting and the story is attractive. What research and information-gathering have you done? I note that a number of institutions took a stake and Old Mutual has been buying. Does OM account for the bulk of the 57% rise since launch? In short, hard to say whether the shares look cheap or expensive at today's price, and an investment would be a leap of faith - but in the steamy Brexit climate approaching, a FX corporate hedging service for SMEs with a high ROE (before the IPO raised £30m) has attractions. Watchlisted while I think about it.

What do others think?
Micawber
Posted: 18 May 2017 06:14:53(UTC)

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colin overton;46845 wrote:
Off to another Wetherspoons today, my research continues! This establishment is pleasant, being in a comfortable Cheshire town. I'll try a new city pub with friends on Saturday.
It seems that Wetherspoons is not for everyone as an investment or pub, a sign of these divisive times? I suspect that Brokers are not easy embarrassed by a prediction of 600p turning into a 1000p price per share reality - by the way the 600p "target" still seems to stand!
Still undecided as what to do re investment, as a lunch time stop Ws is hard to beat on value and formula - it's Curry Club Thursday!


Are you talking yourself into this, Colin? What are the reasons you would *not* buy Weatherspoons? (I find that helps to make up my mind - it's always too easy to make a case for buying). I'd start with customers' declining real wages on the one hand, and costs related to minimum wage / loss of cheap eurolabour (if relevant to Wetherspoons) on the other, and look at the financials in that context.
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