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Tyrion Lannister
Posted: 06 June 2018 17:28:05(UTC)

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Apostate;63480 wrote:
I can't help but think the appeal of Emerging Markets (including Asian) is overstated. They embraced capitalism years ago but their governments are still basket-cases riddled with corruption and struggling to organise and to regulate. Buffet, Smith and Train aren't interested in companies listed there and Baillie Gifford are only really into Tencent/Baidu/Alibaba.

EM as consumers and producers for Western companies is another matter. Go into any convenience store in SE Asia and it's stuffed with Unilever/Mondelez/Nestle products.


I pretty much of the same opinion but find it hard to ignore the "experts" who insist that these markets will come good.

I've gone halfway house and invested in 4 ITs which together total 10% of my portfolio, namely FAS, HFEL, JMG and MYI. I intend to hold onto them long term but reinvest the income in Lindsell Train GE and Fundsmith.

Sara G
Posted: 06 June 2018 18:39:43(UTC)

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Jeff Liddiard;63470 wrote:
Sara G;63383 wrote:
Opened a small position in ALFA today, as mentioned on another thread. A 50%+ drop over 2 days sounds dramatic - and is terrible for existing holders - but a good entry point I think and the long term case is still intact.


Sara. Good call. Are you keeping them for the time being? What's your view?


Yes, it's looking OK so far - fingers crossed! - and I'm holding on for the foreseeable future. I've since discovered that it is or was a holding in IIT which bodes well. I'm trying not to buy anything I wouldn't want to buy more of if the price fell, or that I would want to let go of for a relatively small gain (as it isn't worth the risk or trading costs). Not sure yet whether it is a pure recovery play or if I've bought 'growth at a reasonable price' - hopefully the latter. If it falls back again I have a limit order in at 140p...

And now for something completely different... bought WOOD as a diversifier in one of my SIPPs.

2 users thanked Sara G for this post.
Jeff Liddiard on 06/06/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 07/06/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 06 June 2018 19:10:42(UTC)

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Apostate;63480 wrote:
I can't help but think the appeal of Emerging Markets (including Asian) is overstated. They embraced capitalism years ago but their governments are still basket-cases riddled with corruption and struggling to organise and to regulate. Buffet, Smith and Train aren't interested in companies listed there and Baillie Gifford are only really into Tencent/Baidu/Alibaba.

EM as consumers and producers for Western companies is another matter. Go into any convenience store in SE Asia and it's stuffed with Unilever/Mondelez/Nestle products.


Smith does have an Emerging Markets fund .. I think he's very interested in EM (enough to have relocated to an island to run FEET better), but it is a much harder sector to invest in.

Today's Warren Buffetts are mostly EM/China investors, because that's where the greatest inefficiencies are .. Warren Buffett found a lot of opportunities in S.Korea – comparing it to investing in the US 50 years ago.

You also see long-term EM dominates developed mkt returns – unsurprisingly as there's about 3x the growth .. But much less consistent and harder to stick with

http://envisionwealthplanning.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/112781.png


4 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
martin turner on 06/06/2018(UTC), Razik on 07/06/2018(UTC), Road-Man on 07/06/2018(UTC), Tim D on 09/06/2018(UTC)
Apostate
Posted: 06 June 2018 20:25:36(UTC)

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King Lodos;63490 wrote:
Apostate;63480 wrote:
I can't help but think the appeal of Emerging Markets (including Asian) is overstated. They embraced capitalism years ago but their governments are still basket-cases riddled with corruption and struggling to organise and to regulate. Buffet, Smith and Train aren't interested in companies listed there and Baillie Gifford are only really into Tencent/Baidu/Alibaba.

EM as consumers and producers for Western companies is another matter. Go into any convenience store in SE Asia and it's stuffed with Unilever/Mondelez/Nestle products.


Smith does have an Emerging Markets fund .. I think he's very interested in EM (enough to have relocated to an island to run FEET better), but it is a much harder sector to invest in.

Today's Warren Buffetts are mostly EM/China investors, because that's where the greatest inefficiencies are .. Warren Buffett found a lot of opportunities in S.Korea – comparing it to investing in the US 50 years ago.

You also see long-term EM dominates developed mkt returns – unsurprisingly as there's about 3x the growth .. But much less consistent and harder to stick with

http://envisionwealthplanning.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/112781.png




since the GFC though a UK investor has done much better with a Developed World tracker than an EM one.


King Lodos
Posted: 06 June 2018 20:45:16(UTC)

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And from 1994 to 2004 you'd have lost money in EM, and made good returns in DM.

That's why it's not easy to beat the market .. If you were going on 5-10 year returns (like most investors do) you'd never be in EM at the right times.

But if you could clear away the noise – as EM stocks go very in and out of fashion, which explains the big moves, and extremes of high and low valuation – you'd just see smooth line of growth that rises steeper than DM .. I'd always have *something* in an EM tracker, just because over 20-30 years, it's very likely to outpace other investments
1 user thanked King Lodos for this post.
Peter59 on 06/06/2018(UTC)
Tyrion Lannister
Posted: 06 June 2018 23:53:10(UTC)

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Sara G;63383 wrote:


And now for something completely different... bought WOOD as a diversifier in one of my SIPPs.



I’d be interested in your reasoning on that. Do you know the industry?

I used to work in Pharma, and used my experience to make a killing with Asa Framlington Biotech. Probably more luck than experience tbh but I got in and out at not too far off the right times.

My point being that successful investing in sector specialist funds requires specialist knowledge.
Big boy
Posted: 07 June 2018 08:09:09(UTC)

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Seems to be backwardations in the leaders and no indexes quoted but can deal in second liners. Same for Halifax and HL. What's going on??
Jeff Liddiard
Posted: 07 June 2018 08:19:21(UTC)

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Big boy;63500 wrote:
Seems to be backwardations in the leaders and no indexes quoted but can deal in second liners. Same for Halifax and HL. What's going on??



https://www.bloomberg.co...xchange-open-on-thursday
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Big boy on 07/06/2018(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 07 June 2018 08:26:48(UTC)

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King Lodos;63495 wrote:
And from 1994 to 2004 you'd have lost money in EM, and made good returns in DM.

That's why it's not easy to beat the market .. If you were going on 5-10 year returns (like most investors do) you'd never be in EM at the right times.

But if you could clear away the noise – as EM stocks go very in and out of fashion, which explains the big moves, and extremes of high and low valuation – you'd just see smooth line of growth that rises steeper than DM .. I'd always have *something* in an EM tracker, just because over 20-30 years, it's very likely to outpace other investments


You are correct about fashion and that's why you should not buy when everyone knows the story.. To-days favourites will not be to-morrows favourites Wait till the discounts widen to 20% plus and holders get dispondant before you buy.
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Andrew Smith 259 on 07/06/2018(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 07 June 2018 09:13:21(UTC)

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Tyrion Lannister;63498 wrote:
Sara G;63383 wrote:


And now for something completely different... bought WOOD as a diversifier in one of my SIPPs.



I’d be interested in your reasoning on that. Do you know the industry?

I used to work in Pharma, and used my experience to make a killing with Asa Framlington Biotech. Probably more luck than experience tbh but I got in and out at not too far off the right times.

My point being that successful investing in sector specialist funds requires specialist knowledge.


No, no specialist knowledge. I've had my eye on it since Micawber mentioned it about a year ago and performance has been steady since then. His rationale at the time was that timber may be a material that will continue to be in demand and where supplies are limited and slow to mature.

1 user thanked Sara G for this post.
Tyrion Lannister on 07/06/2018(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 07 June 2018 09:50:23(UTC)

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I see Berkshire Hathaway are down 10% plus from high. Can anyone tell me the latest NAV figure?
kWIKSAVE
Posted: 07 June 2018 10:15:23(UTC)

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Tony Peterson

Is it a good time to buy Vodafone for my ISA ?

What do your charts tell you please ?

As ever, your wisdom is appreciated.
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Jeff Liddiard on 07/06/2018(UTC)
Tony Peterson
Posted: 07 June 2018 10:32:06(UTC)

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kWIKSAVE

For your ISA it would have been better yesterday (ex div today - though the fall so far is less than the dividend) but I would say yes.

When the markets finally opened this morning I trimmed yet more from our RIO holdings (now up 27% from our April contribution) to finish buying back at under a fiver all the Royal Mail shares we sold between 530 and 610 recently.

If it hadn't been that it would have been telecoms or banks. At the moment all our miners and Burberry have been producing good short term gains useful for topping up telecoms, banks, which have fallen from favour.

Shouldn't boast. And shouldn't post when operation wound is healing. (Memo to self - that is). Still here though.

Regards - T
4 users thanked Tony Peterson for this post.
Sara G on 07/06/2018(UTC), Andrew Smith 259 on 07/06/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 07/06/2018(UTC), c brown on 12/06/2018(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 07 June 2018 11:49:13(UTC)

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Tony - I'm so impressed that you haven't let a little thing like surgery get in the way of your bargain-hunting and top-slicing! Take care of yourself and hope you are fully recovered very soon - maybe some nice M&S food will do the trick?
9 users thanked Sara G for this post.
Jeff Liddiard on 07/06/2018(UTC), Andrew Smith 259 on 07/06/2018(UTC), lynne shaffer on 07/06/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 07/06/2018(UTC), Tony Peterson on 07/06/2018(UTC), Captain Slugwash on 08/06/2018(UTC), Tim D on 09/06/2018(UTC), Harry Trout on 10/06/2018(UTC), c brown on 12/06/2018(UTC)
Tony Peterson
Posted: 07 June 2018 11:58:50(UTC)

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Sara

I'm fine now, Sara, but thanks all the same. I was referring to my intemperate blast against Loddy when the anaesthetic was wearing off a couple of weeks back.

.
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Sara G on 07/06/2018(UTC)
Jeff Liddiard
Posted: 07 June 2018 12:21:52(UTC)

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Sara G;63383 wrote:
Opened a small position in ALFA today, as mentioned on another thread. A 50%+ drop over 2 days sounds dramatic - and is terrible for existing holders - but a good entry point I think and the long term case is still intact.


Sara, how do you find out about drops like this and other potential bargains? thanks.
1 user thanked Jeff Liddiard for this post.
c brown on 12/06/2018(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 07 June 2018 13:01:28(UTC)

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Jeff Liddiard;63523 wrote:
Sara G;63383 wrote:
Opened a small position in ALFA today, as mentioned on another thread. A 50%+ drop over 2 days sounds dramatic - and is terrible for existing holders - but a good entry point I think and the long term case is still intact.


Sara, how do you find out about drops like this and other potential bargains? thanks.


Nothing fancy...

For sudden drops I just check the risers and fallers on the HL and LSE sites a couple of times a day (HL only show the top 100 AIM shares, hence using both) and then take a view on whether I think the fall is an overreaction. While it is probably a bad idea to dive straight in on a big fall, it is a useful prompt to dig deeper. I make sure it is a company I like for the longer term and then if I'm too early (as was the case with MCRO) I can buy more rather than panic sell at a loss.

Other than that I use Morningstar to screen on various factors - yield is useful, but mostly I look at the long and short term performance tabs (under Equity Quickrank). This highlights anything that has declined dramatically but over a longer period. I'm mostly looking for things that have been ticking along OK but then something has happened in the last 6-12 months - longer term decline is a red flag and could indicate that the firm is in a declining industry, or has poor fundamentals.



9 users thanked Sara G for this post.
dyfed on 07/06/2018(UTC), Jeff Liddiard on 07/06/2018(UTC), Margaret D on 07/06/2018(UTC), Andrew Smith 259 on 07/06/2018(UTC), Razik on 07/06/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 07/06/2018(UTC), Danny Burns on 07/06/2018(UTC), c brown on 12/06/2018(UTC), Shetland on 12/06/2018(UTC)
satish mittal
Posted: 07 June 2018 14:45:37(UTC)

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Hi,
Any one selling TRG, BGS ?
Satish
lynne shaffer
Posted: 07 June 2018 17:06:41(UTC)

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HL do actually give you the 5 top risers and fallers for the FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and FTSE All Share on my IPhone.

On my IPad I get those plus FTSE 350,FTSE techMARK 100,, FTSE Small Cap and FTSE AIM 100
lynne shaffer
Posted: 07 June 2018 17:07:49(UTC)

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I have TRG and BGS in my long term p/f and am not thinking of selling them
3 users thanked lynne shaffer for this post.
Sara G on 08/06/2018(UTC), satish mittal on 08/06/2018(UTC), Andrew Smith 259 on 10/06/2018(UTC)
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