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jvl
Posted: 12 February 2018 12:54:42(UTC)

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King Lodos;57010 wrote:
Some light topping up of Fundsmith, LT Global and Vanguard Emerging Mkts


You've often said that you believe Fundsmith's performance is due to it being effectively a consumer staples index and that it would be cheaper to replicate. So why buy Fundsmith now? Why not buy a consumer staples ETF?
King Lodos
Posted: 12 February 2018 12:59:03(UTC)

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Sara G;57009 wrote:
Tim D;57006 wrote:
Sara G;57005 wrote:
I've mostly moved out of passive vehicles as I think more volatile markets will suit active managers better.


That's a story the active managers love to tell... but where's the hard cold evidence they can deliver? AFAIK the actively managed industry in aggregate didn't distinguish itself during 2008 or 2015-2016 (although of course you can always find exceptions... the problem is picking them in advance).

For example, some (US-oriented) research from Vanguard concludes "During periods of market stress, it is common to hear that active managers can help investors by selecting securities or by maintaining a significant cash position. However, our evidence does not support this. ... When accounting for the difficulties in identifying bear and bull markets, security selection, and the difficulty in overcoming higher costs over the long term, we conclude that an indexed investor is not at a disadvantage when investing in bear or bull markets."


Yes, points accepted - although I do wonder how index funds would fare against ITs over the longer term, or perhaps against the most bought OEICs, which would include Fundsmith and Lindsell Train.

It may well be my own psychological failing, but I'm just not the sort of investor who can stick everything in a Vanguard Lifestrategy fund and forget about it - I mostly tend to use them in the short term to take advantage of dips. Where they come into their own is if there is a particular sector I want to invest in. For example I've held on to RBTX because I like the make-up of the index, and in a sector like that it's possibly harder to know which companies will outperform.


I usually play devil's advocate on active v passive.

I do think Vanguard are a bit disingenuous using the retail fund industry to push Efficient Markets .. Which I think was wrong 30-40 years ago, and is still wrong today – as this past week demonstrates (at least that there's a substantial margin of error).

Retail funds are so restricted in what they can do (position sizes, sector constraints) I don't think of most of them as very active .. Hedge funds, like BH Macro and AllBlue, did well in the financial crisis, because for more active managers, that's when you get directional bets, and smart and dumb money diverge (e.g. panic selling).

I've no doubt if you can find a smart manager, with enough flexibility, and the right experience, an active fund will be a better bet .. Whether Fundsmith and LT do better over the next crisis will be down to whether markets agree with them .. If Amazon, JD.com and Tencent own the planet in 10 years time, evidently we'll have been better in index trackers (and even better in hardcore growth funds).

I'm the same – I couldn't hold a single Vanguard fund .. Above all you have to find a way of investing harmonious with you, because that's going to get you through crises, and it probably makes me a lot more frugal .. Like Buffett, I suppose, if you feel good about where you're putting your money, there's a good chance you'll find a way to invest more of it.







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Sara G on 12/02/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 12 February 2018 13:11:21(UTC)

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jvl;57012 wrote:
King Lodos;57010 wrote:
Some light topping up of Fundsmith, LT Global and Vanguard Emerging Mkts


You've often said that you believe Fundsmith's performance is due to it being effectively a consumer staples index and that it would be cheaper to replicate. So why buy Fundsmith now? Why not buy a consumer staples ETF?


They've done what I didn't know whether they would .. Which is rotate.

When you look at fundamentals across the portfolio, they've been able to sell overvalued positions, and buy profitable companies, and keep things quite consistent .. That's a very good sign, for me, of a manager actually managing a portfolio (which I don't think most do).

I actually have more in their stocks outside their fund (an individual holdings), as I still stand by the fee being higher than it needs to be

5 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Mickey on 12/02/2018(UTC), Tim D on 12/02/2018(UTC), what me, worry? on 12/02/2018(UTC), Raj K on 12/02/2018(UTC), Alan M on 15/02/2018(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 12 February 2018 15:19:50(UTC)

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Took a punt with a new holding in RMMC @ 178p. Already hold MINI and DSM. Hoping/assuming with time the recently knocked down RMMC discount will revert back to at least be more in line with those other trusts.
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Mr Helpful on 12/02/2018(UTC)
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan)
Posted: 12 February 2018 16:41:48(UTC)

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dyfed;56993 wrote:
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan);56981 wrote:
So basically what your saying Differs is that because of your impatience he should abandon his strategy and invest in companies he feels are overvalued instead of his time and result proven record of patiently awaiting what he feels are the right opportunities that suit his particular expertise/strategy.Therefore placing at unnecesary risk not only my capital but virtually all his own, incidentally one of the main reasons for investing 'with' him in the first place is his total "skin in the game"....Talk to me in 3yrs..oh i'm in Tenby in may ..I'll letyou buy me some fish and chips..x


I have not said that at all! More to the point, nor has NAS! Their approach may be perfectly sensible, but if they don't explain it how can I judge?
I am about 30 mins from Tenby so why not come round for a cuppa?
x
PS if u r coming to Wales, to Dyfed in fact, may b worth knowing that dyfed is pronounced dove-ed, no ff involved!


Apologies for the delay in replying..'Dovvers'...was practising my Backside Rodeo 540 toe grab, then watched a repeat of saturdays rugby... anyway Chris being an Activist investor as you know is hardly likely to broadcast 'targets' I am sure that's said in the literature,when he does make a move be assured he is not without allies.

xx
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dyfed on 12/02/2018(UTC)
Jim S
Posted: 12 February 2018 18:00:06(UTC)

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Took small punt on DTY & MERL today for my SIPP

Don't know much about DTY but I found Cowie's argument in the Sunday Times yesterday persuasive.

Merlin struggled last year, I think SP drop was overdone. Fundamentals are around 1/3rd better than 2013, yet the SP is 10% lower. Has growing global revenue, plus there seems to be growing trend towards 'staycations' which might increase a bit with Brexit.
Jay Mi
Posted: 12 February 2018 20:07:17(UTC)

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Bought Shell B for my dad (his choice definitely not mine).
And IGC India Capital Growth trust, top up for him.

John Miskelly
Posted: 12 February 2018 21:08:12(UTC)

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Added a bit to Fundsmith and Vanguard US Equity index. Planning to top up a bit more over the coming weeks.
john_r
Posted: 12 February 2018 22:18:29(UTC)

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I'm a sucker for BooHoo just had to top up again today. Seems as though each time I check its forecast, it has moved up some more.
Followed on with top-ups in REL (reports Thursday), BCA and a new holding JPM's MATE (IPO).
Tomorrow I will top up HSP (reports Wednesday) where I see the inescapable Mr Christopher Harwood Mills has recently taken a 3% stake on behalf of NAS.
But now tonight it is time to take Cueballs advice - look after my heart.
A cleansing tonic 'spirit of rye' will keep me calm until tomorrow.
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Sara G on 13/02/2018(UTC)
Jeff Liddiard
Posted: 13 February 2018 10:01:30(UTC)

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Micawber;56284 wrote:
Good lift for DGOC today. It had been languishing in the absence of news, but a good trading statement, another substantial acquisition of Appalachian wells and an over-subscribed placing at 80p reflects the sensible approach and prospects for this second-hand-oilwell producer of low-cost oil. I increased my stake after last summer's maiden results and am holding. This is the kind of share that sits in the background and may drift down, but rises a couple of times a year on results

At the same time as I brought this to forum attention, I mentioned JUST of which I remain a holder. Its sp suffered lately when one of the PE firms involved in its flotation disposed of a large chunk of its remaining stake, which made JUST something of a buy again. I am tempted to add - but it is a domestic facing UK company. If things go well, it should be a long-term improver and yielder, but I don't see it surging upwards by more than 5-10% over the next six months, which is my time frame for such companies unless I think they are particularly positioned for Brexit advantage. Holding.

BGO mentioned above also suffered an artificial sp fall on a placing, where the placing price was rather far below the market price at the time. But this UK growth company's (loss-making...) earnings from carrier billing are overseas in decent quality markets and with very high quality partners. I see it as a medium-long term speculative investment which might always get taken out by a bid as this new sector of the payments market gets eventually consolidated..


Micawber, BGO I'm hanging onto for the very long term. Re DGOC, two good uplifts last couple of days, just wondering if you have a price exit point or is it another long term one for you? Thanks
Keith Hilton
Posted: 13 February 2018 10:31:17(UTC)

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Opened a position in RGL and topped-up STOB. Both in my ISA and yielding well over 7%. These look more attractive to me than bonds at present, and with that level of yield I'm hoping that they won't get hit too hard, unless interest rates rise significantly, which I think unlikely. I also think there's the possibility of some significant upside to STOB in the next decade, from expansion at Southend airport.

I'm also now close to eliminating the non-dividend paying stocks from my ISA, as I'll soon need to start drawing down more heavily from my ISA and SIPP and wish to minimise any income tax due.
5 users thanked Keith Hilton for this post.
dyfed on 13/02/2018(UTC), john_r on 13/02/2018(UTC), Andrew Smith 259 on 13/02/2018(UTC), Mr Helpful on 13/02/2018(UTC), Mike L on 13/02/2018(UTC)
John Miskelly
Posted: 13 February 2018 10:51:08(UTC)

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What are people's thoughts on Imperial Brands (IMB) as a growth prospect (putting aside the questionable ethics of tobacco investing)?

The dividend yield and cover look pretty solid to me and the P/E is sitting at 10.7. They also seem to have a good history of increasing the dividend over time.

My concern would be increased government regulations on tobacco and reduction in sales going forward, if current smoking levels decrease.

A worthwhile investment at current levels, or should I consider Diageo instead?

Tom Mozy
Posted: 13 February 2018 11:30:11(UTC)

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Jim S;57036 wrote:
Took small punt on DTY & MERL today for my SIPP

Don't know much about DTY but I found Cowie's argument in the Sunday Times yesterday persuasive.


Shame its behind a pay wall...
1 user thanked Tom Mozy for this post.
john_r on 13/02/2018(UTC)
dyfed
Posted: 13 February 2018 11:52:14(UTC)

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John Miskelly;57065 wrote:
What are people's thoughts on Imperial Brands (IMB) as a growth prospect (putting aside the questionable ethics of tobacco investing)?

The dividend yield and cover look pretty solid to me and the P/E is sitting at 10.7. They also seem to have a good history of increasing the dividend over time.

My concern would be increased government regulations on tobacco and reduction in sales going forward, if current smoking levels decrease.

A worthwhile investment at current levels, or should I consider Diageo instead?



DGE is great but too expensive for me at the moment. With IMB it's a punt on how fast it's vapour/ecig profits keep rising v the risks of tobacco: good sales in some developing countries but surely kiss of death elsewhere? It certainly pays you a nice divi. I don't know how easy it is for competition to get into the vapour market and impact IMBs current position, which seems to be a key issue. And of course Mr Woodford holds IMB.....

Have just bought IAPD: 4.5% divi, Asia/Pacific developed.
1 user thanked dyfed for this post.
john_r on 13/02/2018(UTC)
Keith Hilton
Posted: 13 February 2018 12:03:22(UTC)

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Small top-up of FGT to utilise some dividend income, now that it's pulled back about 6.5%.
1 user thanked Keith Hilton for this post.
Mickey on 13/02/2018(UTC)
Mickey
Posted: 13 February 2018 12:53:11(UTC)

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Opened a new position in F&C Smaller Co's (FCS) at 5%. Held it previously but sold it on a small premium and lacklustre performance, having taken some risk off with selling 50% of my SMT holding I am quite happy to buy back into FCS on a discount. Other Global holdings are Brunner, FRCL, SMT and Witan.

Will probably add to FCS to around 10% in the near future.
2 users thanked Mickey for this post.
c brown on 13/02/2018(UTC), Mr Helpful on 13/02/2018(UTC)
Mickey
Posted: 13 February 2018 12:56:47(UTC)

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Keith Hilton;57069 wrote:
Small top-up of FGT to utilise some dividend income, now that it's pulled back about 6.5%.

Have FGT which has been quite disappointing for awhile, thought it might drop to a discount but seems able to hold that premium.
King Lodos
Posted: 13 February 2018 13:13:01(UTC)

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dyfed;57068 wrote:
John Miskelly;57065 wrote:
A worthwhile investment at current levels, or should I consider Diageo instead?



DGE is great but too expensive for me at the moment. With IMB it's a punt on how fast it's vapour/ecig profits keep rising v the risks of tobacco: good sales in some developing countries but surely kiss of death elsewhere? It certainly pays you a nice divi. I don't know how easy it is for competition to get into the vapour market and impact IMBs current position, which seems to be a key issue. And of course Mr Woodford holds IMB.....

Have just bought IAPD: 4.5% divi, Asia/Pacific developed.


This is one of my more calming observations – in light of the talk of markets being in a bubble.

Diageo (DEO on the NYSE) is often around a PE of 20 – and in light of bond yields being 3x as high back in the 2000s, I'd say Diageo's pretty reasonable .. Someone on Bloomberg right now relaying an opinion I've had for a little while – that the popularity of cyclical sectors has left defensives looking almost cheap

https://i.imgur.com/DqWpDPY.jpg
john_r
Posted: 13 February 2018 13:13:11(UTC)

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Keith Hilton;57063 wrote:
Opened a position in RGL and topped-up STOB. Both in my ISA and yielding well over 7%. These look more attractive to me than bonds at present, and with that level of yield I'm hoping that they won't get hit too hard, unless interest rates rise significantly, which I think unlikely. I also think there's the possibility of some significant upside to STOB in the next decade, from expansion at Southend airport.
I'm also now ............


I'm with you on Stobart.
Under CEO Tinkler this company never sits still for a moment.
Andrew Smith 259
Posted: 13 February 2018 14:16:06(UTC)

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Keith Hilton;57063 wrote:
Opened a position in RGL and topped-up STOB. Both in my ISA and yielding well over 7%. These look more attractive to me than bonds at present, and with that level of yield I'm hoping that they won't get hit too hard, unless interest rates rise significantly, which I think unlikely. I also think there's the possibility of some significant upside to STOB in the next decade, from expansion at Southend airport.

I'm also now close to eliminating the non-dividend paying stocks from my ISA, as I'll soon need to start drawing down more heavily from my ISA and SIPP and wish to minimise any income tax due.


I’m currently holding two commercial property REITs. Like you I’ve got RGL but I’m also holding AEW UK REIT plc (AEWU).

AEWU currently yields about 8%.
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