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dyfed
Posted: 11 February 2018 14:47:00(UTC)

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Bruce J.;56957 wrote:
I have my eye on North Atlantic Smaller Companies [ NAS ] which is currently at a considerable discount, and possibly Harbourvest [HVPE ]

Any opinions would be much appreciated.


Thing is about NAS, it has c30% in cash or cash-lookalikes. I think it's business model looks broke: it can't find any small companies, esp US small companies, to buy. So will this little wobble give it some opportunities? And if not are you still getting a good deal, at 30% discount, even if you're not buying what it says on the tin?
4 users thanked dyfed for this post.
Mr Helpful on 11/02/2018(UTC), Sara G on 11/02/2018(UTC), Tyrion Lannister on 12/02/2018(UTC), Bruce J. on 12/02/2018(UTC)
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan)
Posted: 11 February 2018 14:48:22(UTC)

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Go to Harwood capital and read the "latest reports" ..bare in mind the unquoted part of the portfolio and cash position and take Nav's ...well you'll see ... As regulars know I am a long time admirer of Mr Mills after all he is Harwood....total commitment
2 users thanked Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan) for this post.
Bruce J. on 12/02/2018(UTC), Richard Lambert on 12/02/2018(UTC)
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan)
Posted: 11 February 2018 14:56:00(UTC)

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"Business model looks broke."....I wonder what Chris would say to that ..ha ha ha....I think TJL sums it up nicely on the other thread
Jim S
Posted: 11 February 2018 15:16:33(UTC)

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john_r;56846 wrote:
Couldn't let this perplexing volatile week go by without a couple of trades....

I've watched DTY lose 60% recently in what at first looked to be hari kari by slashing its charges for (some) funerals. This week I was surprised that it kept its floor level share price. So could this be the bottom?
Seems the company is making life difficult for the competition and perhaps take a bigger slice of the baby boomers demise. Previously considered too expensive but now with a p/e somewhere between 7.5 and 13 it's looking attractive to me.
Was £24 in November - now a steal at £7.50. Time will tell of course.
My other trade was a boring top up LLOY - as it moves nearer to that 6% dividend era.


Good call, DTY was recommended by Cowie in the Sunday Times today, so you may see some uplift this week.

Been doing very minor tinkering, just sold remaining BGS (because of high premium) & some Hawksmoor Varnbrugh, haven't decide yet where to invest proceeds yet. Keeping an eye on a few ITs to see if their discounts are attractive FCSS, SVM, NASC, NSI....for some ITs the discounts have actually narrowed in the last couple of weeks because the NAVs dropped faster than the SPs, so less bargains than expected so far.
dyfed
Posted: 11 February 2018 16:30:46(UTC)

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Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan);56960 wrote:
Go to Harwood capital and read the "latest reports" ..bare in mind the unquoted part of the portfolio and cash position and take Nav's ...well you'll see ... As regulars know I am a long time admirer of Mr Mills after all he is Harwood....total commitment


Hi Cueball sorry I mean Hank.
I have had another look at the website. It says it's strategy is to invest in small companies. But it appears to have a large % of it's assets not so invested. And this has been the case for a while. So it is not fulfilling it's strategy. And I see nothing telling me why or what it expects to do about it. So if Mr Mills wants new admirers like me, he should perhaps reflect on this: maybe you could mention it next time you chat?
x
1 user thanked dyfed for this post.
dlp6666 on 11/02/2018(UTC)
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan)
Posted: 11 February 2018 18:10:03(UTC)

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So basically what your saying Differs is that because of your impatience he should abandon his strategy and invest in companies he feels are overvalued instead of his time and result proven record of patiently awaiting what he feels are the right opportunities that suit his particular expertise/strategy.Therefore placing at unnecesary risk not only my capital but virtually all his own, incidentally one of the main reasons for investing 'with' him in the first place is his total "skin in the game"....Talk to me in 3yrs..oh i'm in Tenby in may ..I'll letyou buy me some fish and chips..x
john_r
Posted: 11 February 2018 18:36:50(UTC)

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Bruce J.;56957 wrote:
I have my eye on North Atlantic Smaller Companies [ NAS ] which is currently at a considerable discount, and possibly ........
...... Any opinions would be much appreciated.


I've held NAS for a couple of years and while not a star performer (like Fundsmith) it has managed to provide around 11%+ pa performance over a number of years. It's sister fund ORYX has produced similar returns - not surprising when you see the similarity of curious investments.
NAS is often compared with other North American smaller companies which is a litte unfair since it has no remit to invest in American companies. Even so it seems to have outperformed both JPM and Jupiter American Smaller Companies IT's despite Sterling devaluations which have favoured the American trusts. The 20% discount adds further interest for me though clearly it is not a widely favoured trust. Some buybacks recently in Oryx.
Just another opinion of cause!!
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Bruce J. on 12/02/2018(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 11 February 2018 18:44:24(UTC)

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Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan);56981 wrote:
So basically what your saying Differs is that because of your impatience he should abandon his strategy and invest in companies he feels are overvalued instead of his time and result proven record of patiently awaiting what he feels are the right opportunities that suit his particular expertise/strategy.


This is a valid albeit fine point.
Do we choose a fund to hold cash for us, or do we do that ourselves?
If we want N American smaller co's exposure in our portfolio today, what then?
Fish & Chips?
2 users thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
dlp6666 on 11/02/2018(UTC), Bruce J. on 12/02/2018(UTC)
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan)
Posted: 11 February 2018 19:06:34(UTC)

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North ATLANTIC smaller cos...as long as i've been invested,10 yrs...although able to, the fund has had little exposure to AMERICAN smaller companies, the reason for the large discount? ..and this goes for any fund invested in smaller companies especially unqouted cos is of course LIQUIDITY...or lack of ...pretty obvious really ....11% annual growth ...I'll settle for that, going forward, in these soon to be post quantitative easing times.
4 users thanked Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan) for this post.
Mr Helpful on 11/02/2018(UTC), IanL on 12/02/2018(UTC), Bruce J. on 12/02/2018(UTC), Mickey on 12/02/2018(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 11 February 2018 19:12:15(UTC)

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Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan);56987 wrote:
North ATLANTIC smaller cos...as long as i've been invested,10 yrs...although able to, the fund has had little exposure to AMERICAN smaller companies,


Stand corrected. Fooled by name.
On checking find very little in US smaller stocks
although curiously the largest holding is US Treasury Bills
2 users thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan) on 11/02/2018(UTC), Mickey on 12/02/2018(UTC)
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan)
Posted: 11 February 2018 19:22:23(UTC)

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..short dated treasury bills safer than any other cash 'promise' on the planet....the trouble is you see ...people actually believe that outperformance from the likes of Fundsmith can ....very dangerous
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Sara G on 11/02/2018(UTC), Bruce J. on 12/02/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 12/02/2018(UTC)
dyfed
Posted: 11 February 2018 22:21:29(UTC)

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Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan);56981 wrote:
So basically what your saying Differs is that because of your impatience he should abandon his strategy and invest in companies he feels are overvalued instead of his time and result proven record of patiently awaiting what he feels are the right opportunities that suit his particular expertise/strategy.Therefore placing at unnecesary risk not only my capital but virtually all his own, incidentally one of the main reasons for investing 'with' him in the first place is his total "skin in the game"....Talk to me in 3yrs..oh i'm in Tenby in may ..I'll letyou buy me some fish and chips..x


I have not said that at all! More to the point, nor has NAS! Their approach may be perfectly sensible, but if they don't explain it how can I judge?
I am about 30 mins from Tenby so why not come round for a cuppa?
x
PS if u r coming to Wales, to Dyfed in fact, may b worth knowing that dyfed is pronounced dove-ed, no ff involved!
Micawber
Posted: 12 February 2018 09:07:40(UTC)

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Why BOO even at its high valuation is going places, and M&S fashion isn't:
https://finance.yahoo.co...earnings-192531218.html

Check out especially Carol Kane on social media marketing strategies.

Richard Lambert
Posted: 12 February 2018 10:09:09(UTC)

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Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan);56960 wrote:
Go to Harwood capital and read the "latest reports" ..bare in mind the unquoted part of the portfolio and cash position and take Nav's ...well you'll see ... As regulars know I am a long time admirer of Mr Mills after all he is Harwood....total commitment

Good post, value is not always what it appears. Patience is the key.
1 user thanked Richard Lambert for this post.
Bruce J. on 12/02/2018(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 12 February 2018 10:43:33(UTC)

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Switched from IJPH (Hedged Japan ETF) to JFJ, which is on a 6% discount - significantly narrower than the 12 month average, but given that other Japan ITs tend to be on premiums it looks like reasonable value. I've mostly moved out of passive vehicles as I think more volatile markets will suit active managers better. The hedging has served a purpose as sterling has risen but further upside is limited in my view.

Also sold some defensive holdings (Troy Trojan and Jupiter Absolute Return). Bought Blackrock Gold and General as gold miners look cheap relative to their peak in 2016 and could do well if inflation picks up. Keeping the rest in cash in expectation of further opportunities. Further to discussion on the Market Correction thread I'm keeping my remaining defensive holding, PNL - unlike the OEICs it was bought as a long term holding and I'm going to stick to the plan.

Regarding NAS... I sold it a while back when the discount narrowed and would consider buying it back if it fell further. The discount does appear to have widened, but that will presumably change when the NAV is updated. I couldn't find any information later than July 2017 on the Harwood site, unfortunately. As regards the US treasuries, I always quite liked that aspect, as it's a hedge against a falling £, so could be to the manager's benefit at some point if he is buying cheap UK assets with dollars.
6 users thanked Sara G for this post.
dyfed on 12/02/2018(UTC), Tim D on 12/02/2018(UTC), Mr Helpful on 12/02/2018(UTC), c brown on 12/02/2018(UTC), Mickey on 12/02/2018(UTC), Bellabeck on 12/02/2018(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 12 February 2018 10:59:32(UTC)

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Sara G;57005 wrote:
I've mostly moved out of passive vehicles as I think more volatile markets will suit active managers better.


That's a story the active managers love to tell... but where's the hard cold evidence they can deliver? AFAIK the actively managed industry in aggregate didn't distinguish itself during 2008 or 2015-2016 (although of course you can always find exceptions... the problem is picking them in advance).

For example, some (US-oriented) research from Vanguard concludes "During periods of market stress, it is common to hear that active managers can help investors by selecting securities or by maintaining a significant cash position. However, our evidence does not support this. ... When accounting for the difficulties in identifying bear and bull markets, security selection, and the difficulty in overcoming higher costs over the long term, we conclude that an indexed investor is not at a disadvantage when investing in bear or bull markets."
Mr Helpful
Posted: 12 February 2018 11:44:20(UTC)

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This morning :-

added to
CCJI : Japan (see Japan also mentioned above)
JRS : Russia

Other Stock possibilities slipping away (for now)

dumped
IGLS : Short-Term Gilts
to raise Cash levels further, in preparation for possible stormy weather ahead
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dyfed on 12/02/2018(UTC), Sara G on 12/02/2018(UTC), c brown on 12/02/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 12/02/2018(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 12 February 2018 12:24:35(UTC)

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Tim D;57006 wrote:
Sara G;57005 wrote:
I've mostly moved out of passive vehicles as I think more volatile markets will suit active managers better.


That's a story the active managers love to tell... but where's the hard cold evidence they can deliver? AFAIK the actively managed industry in aggregate didn't distinguish itself during 2008 or 2015-2016 (although of course you can always find exceptions... the problem is picking them in advance).

For example, some (US-oriented) research from Vanguard concludes "During periods of market stress, it is common to hear that active managers can help investors by selecting securities or by maintaining a significant cash position. However, our evidence does not support this. ... When accounting for the difficulties in identifying bear and bull markets, security selection, and the difficulty in overcoming higher costs over the long term, we conclude that an indexed investor is not at a disadvantage when investing in bear or bull markets."


Yes, points accepted - although I do wonder how index funds would fare against ITs over the longer term, or perhaps against the most bought OEICs, which would include Fundsmith and Lindsell Train.

It may well be my own psychological failing, but I'm just not the sort of investor who can stick everything in a Vanguard Lifestrategy fund and forget about it - I mostly tend to use them in the short term to take advantage of dips. Where they come into their own is if there is a particular sector I want to invest in. For example I've held on to RBTX because I like the make-up of the index, and in a sector like that it's possibly harder to know which companies will outperform.
2 users thanked Sara G for this post.
Tim D on 12/02/2018(UTC), Mickey on 12/02/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 12 February 2018 12:25:01(UTC)

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Some light topping up of Fundsmith, LT Global and Vanguard Emerging Mkts




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c brown on 12/02/2018(UTC), Sara G on 12/02/2018(UTC), Mickey on 12/02/2018(UTC), john_r on 12/02/2018(UTC)
c brown
Posted: 12 February 2018 12:30:48(UTC)

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Topped up fundsmith Friday & smt on Thursday. I opened a very small position in Atlantis Japan a few weeks ago got burnt years ago so will watch & add slowly!
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Sara G on 12/02/2018(UTC)
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