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Micawber
Posted: 10 January 2018 05:54:54(UTC)

Joined: 27/01/2013(UTC)
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Big boy;55062 wrote:
Remember Micawber........."where there's a tip there's a tap". Most journalist don't do original research they just pass on the information from an Investor who has bought in at a lower level. Much better to buy before others then when they pile in you sell... Much better to be first in and first out....

If you have a tip for a horse don't tell anyone as the odds will be lowered. Tip a share and the price increases so shout about your purchase.


Thank you, Grandmother!
Jim S
Posted: 10 January 2018 10:26:18(UTC)

Joined: 08/12/2016(UTC)
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Seen today's statement from Burford suggesting they had a very busy 2017. Their SP hasnt done much in the last few months, full year results will be in 14 March. I'm hoping for another good year from them, still not bad on a bad p/e if its growth continues as I hope it will.
Tim D
Posted: 10 January 2018 11:55:37(UTC)

Joined: 07/06/2017(UTC)
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More risk-reduction as my portfolio again melts-up to new record highs. Feel like I'm on Weakest Link yelling "BANK!" at Anne Robinson.

Cleaned up a relic holding of VVUEIN (Vanguard's UK Equity Income; accumulation units; I subsequently added far more in VVUKEI income units but never cleaned this old Acc unit holding up).

Also sold the last of my IGHY (iShares Global High Yield); was only ever meant to be somewhere to park some sterling cash just before the brexit referendum. Will leave high-yield exposure to my wife's portfolio's bond funds' active managers to juggle in future I think.

Reinvested into RICA (completing a PNL, CGT, RICA triptych of permabears).

Not too obvious where to take profits next if this continues; may have to reluctantly (sensibly?!) lightly trim across some tech/EM/Japan satellite holdings. I'm actually relieved the FTSE100 seems to have paused for breath today... but who knows what the US will do this afternoon (although IG seems to be predicting the S&P slightly down).
5 users thanked Tim D for this post.
dlp6666 on 10/01/2018(UTC), Mr Helpful on 10/01/2018(UTC), AJW on 10/01/2018(UTC), Mickey on 10/01/2018(UTC), gillyann on 10/01/2018(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 10 January 2018 11:58:04(UTC)

Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
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Transactions so far this week :-

Risk-Side
Trimmed MYI, BRCI, BRNA
Added to CCJI

Defensives
Added to IBTS, IS15

As usual, no conclusions or insights can be drawn from this trading history.
Just ongoing ultra-boring portfolio maintenance or tweaking.
Still view Stocks as quite fully valued with momentum very much in charge. Going up because they are going up.
1 user thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
Mickey on 10/01/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 10 January 2018 13:25:41(UTC)

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
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I'm normally the perma-bear, but at the moment we've got a LOT of earnings surprises to the upside .. I think the most in about a decade.

So stock prices really are being driven by fundamentals for a change – as David Tepper said, things aren't really any more expensive than they were this time last year .. Of course that sets up for a correction if we start to get surprises on the downside – but that's not happened yet .. Trump's tax package is lifting fundamentals.
3 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Mickey on 10/01/2018(UTC), Andrew Smith 259 on 10/01/2018(UTC), Mr Helpful on 10/01/2018(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 10 January 2018 18:51:03(UTC)

Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
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King Lodos;55219 wrote:
I'm normally the perma-bear, but at the moment we've got a LOT of earnings surprises to the upside .. I think the most in about a decade.

So stock prices really are being driven by fundamentals for a change – as David Tepper said, things aren't really any more expensive than they were this time last year .. Of course that sets up for a correction if we start to get surprises on the downside – but that's not happened yet .. Trump's tax package is lifting fundamentals.


That caused a second think!
As usually a contrarian find it worrying that so many others are expressing reservations about Stocks and dialling back. How can one go contrarian to that?

Valuations from IC
Last year : S&P PE 21.24, Yield 2.06%
Today : S&P PE 21.31, Yield 1.87%
Changes fairly insignificant.

but different figures here (ignore the 2007/8 blip)

http://www.multpl.com/

or less reliable on this occasion IMHO Shiller CAPE, due to downward distortion of historic earnings

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

Then as observed we have the Trumparian factor ahead.

When looking at individual positions, finding more grounds for the full valuations view.
Valuations Median now within 5% to 8% of historic ceilings. But historic ceilings are just that, 'historic', and can be rent asunder!!!
Purple patch for investors?

Conclusion : tilt but not ruin 'A Well Balanced Portfolio'.
martin turner
Posted: 10 January 2018 18:51:12(UTC)

Joined: 15/10/2013(UTC)
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Does anyone hold or have an opinion on MIGO?
I bought in December mainly because i was looking for a global stock and 'discovered' it.
What is to like:
the main themes, Private equity, India, Property in Berlin
the focus on undervalued assets/trusts
the manager from what i read
the Miton management group
what is to not like:
the discount has disappeared
I also hold BTEM which has a somewhat similar approach.
i am thinking in terms of long term investment.
Tug Boat
Posted: 10 January 2018 19:19:54(UTC)

Joined: 16/12/2014(UTC)
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I came across MIGO a few weeks ago. It was too small about 80m, a fund of funds which I don't like, charges were high, it has a performance fee and didn't pay a dividend. Not what I was after at all.

I was looking for a contrarian, unwanted, unloved, disliked and generally out of favour investment.

MIGO didn't fit the bill, so I bought 500 shares in Piers Morgan instead
2 users thanked Tug Boat for this post.
Jim S on 10/01/2018(UTC), martin turner on 11/01/2018(UTC)
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan)
Posted: 10 January 2018 20:25:10(UTC)

Joined: 19/08/2017(UTC)
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....A big thanks to all those with a bit of fashion sense for making me considerably richer today...ta
Jim S
Posted: 10 January 2018 21:45:28(UTC)

Joined: 08/12/2016(UTC)
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martin turner;55240 wrote:
Does anyone hold or have an opinion on MIGO?
I bought in December mainly because i was looking for a global stock and 'discovered' it.
What is to like:
the main themes, Private equity, India, Property in Berlin
the focus on undervalued assets/trusts
the manager from what i read
the Miton management group
what is to not like:
the discount has disappeared
I also hold BTEM which has a somewhat similar approach.
i am thinking in terms of long term investment.


Well done for buying in! In terms of approach, I think MIGO's concept is great, especially when sentiment has been negative and ITs are at high discounts. The opportunities to use IT discounts to take good value positions in a range of sectors are there and I think the fund managers really did their homework recently.

Unfortunately I admired MIGO but never bought any myself, now it feels like I missed the boat a bit. I was checking its IT holdings back in 2016 for a while and did buy some of the same ones (like BSRT and PIN/PINR), its been a useful source of ideas.

Nowadays with ITs on premiums or tiny discounts, the risks of buying an IT of ITs feels much higher (because you can lose on the underlying shares, also on 2 discounts, also you get 2 lots of fees). If I had some I would probably hold though. If MIGO gets on a decent discount again I will take another look.

Something a bit similar which is still reasonably cheap is NSI, I might dip in for kids' ISAs in the new tax year. There's also the Unicorn Mastertrust OEIC which holds ITs, has decent performance and has similar approach to MIGO.
1 user thanked Jim S for this post.
martin turner on 11/01/2018(UTC)
Jim S
Posted: 10 January 2018 21:46:36(UTC)

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Tug Boat;55241 wrote:


MIGO didn't fit the bill, so I bought 500 shares in Piers Morgan instead


Best laugh I've had all day!
King Lodos
Posted: 10 January 2018 21:50:27(UTC)

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
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Mr Helpful;55239 wrote:
King Lodos;55219 wrote:
I'm normally the perma-bear, but at the moment we've got a LOT of earnings surprises to the upside .. I think the most in about a decade.

So stock prices really are being driven by fundamentals for a change – as David Tepper said, things aren't really any more expensive than they were this time last year .. Of course that sets up for a correction if we start to get surprises on the downside – but that's not happened yet .. Trump's tax package is lifting fundamentals.


That caused a second think!
As usually a contrarian find it worrying that so many others are expressing reservations about Stocks and dialling back. How can one go contrarian to that?

Valuations from IC
Last year : S&P PE 21.24, Yield 2.06%
Today : S&P PE 21.31, Yield 1.87%
Changes fairly insignificant.

but different figures here (ignore the 2007/8 blip)

http://www.multpl.com/

or less reliable on this occasion IMHO Shiller CAPE, due to downward distortion of historic earnings

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

Then as observed we have the Trumparian factor ahead.

When looking at individual positions, finding more grounds for the full valuations view.
Valuations Median now within 5% to 8% of historic ceilings. But historic ceilings are just that, 'historic', and can be rent asunder!!!
Purple patch for investors?

Conclusion : tilt but not ruin 'A Well Balanced Portfolio'.


I'd imagine the IC figures are Forward PE?

An interesting point about CAPE is that's set to come down as the depressed earnings in the 2008-09 period leave the sample period .. You could estimate where that should be with a CAPE8.

The thing with stocks is they're always valued relative to bonds .. 10yr Treasuries yield 2.5% (a PE of 40), AAA Corporates yield 3.5% (PE of 29).

So quality stocks on PEs around 30 are reliant on growth to justify being bought above bonds – and that's about where valuations are topping .. At the moment they've got it, and I think that means stocks are cheap, and ppl keep buying any dips.

It certainly doesn't seem like valuations are anywhere near the point they'd need to be for bad news to trigger mass-selling – at the moment, bad news triggers more buying .. Nick Train made the point stocks could demand much higher valuations in the future, as automation increases productivity growth, and keeps downward pressure on inflation (which means slow hiking – maybe more QE)

I'm as confident as I've been in stocks – very cautious of being caught off guard, as optimism is probably the closest thing to a flashing warning sign


2 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Mr Helpful on 11/01/2018(UTC), Danny Burns on 11/01/2018(UTC)
S_M
Posted: 11 January 2018 16:31:37(UTC)

Joined: 17/03/2011(UTC)
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Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan);55246 wrote:
....A big thanks to all those with a bit of fashion sense for making me considerably richer today...ta


If you are referring to Ted Baker, I buy their clothes but no longer from their main stores. It's either outlet centres on Boxing Day, the sample sale in Kings Cross or Ebay for me!
King Lodos
Posted: 11 January 2018 20:10:56(UTC)

Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
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Mr Helpful;55239 wrote:
When looking at individual positions, finding more grounds for the full valuations view.
Valuations Median now within 5% to 8% of historic ceilings. But historic ceilings are just that, 'historic', and can be rent asunder!!!
Purple patch for investors?

Conclusion : tilt but not ruin 'A Well Balanced Portfolio'.


This is interesting – some shared opinions in the highlights from Buffett and Munger today(/yesterday?) on CNBC:


(2) Stocks not richly valued at current interest rates. Interest rates act like gravity. Berkshire is a net buyer of equities. Equities are the place to be. Bonds paying 2% are selling for 50 times earnings with no growth. Corporations are earning 15% on assets.

(3) Tax law increases corporate earning power by about 20%. Buffett says the tax law is very favorable for Berkshire shareholders. Since Berkshire’s tax rate drops from 35% to 21%, it will now keep 79% of pre-tax profits vs. 65% before. This 14% increase in the share of its profits that it retains, represents an increase of about 20% in its after-tax profits. Furthermore, Berkshire’s deferred tax liabilities are similarly reduced on its unrealized capital gains of $100 billion. For example, if Berkshire realized capital gains in 2017, it would have paid a 35% tax. Now Berkshire would pay only 21%

(4) The 21% corporate tax rate was not baked into stock prices.

(5) Both Buffett and Munger would have voted for the tax bill.

(6) Bitcoin will have a bad ending. Buffett would buy 5-year puts on cryptocurrencies.

(7) Buffett likes Apple and has been buying its shares (at least through September 30 — last SEC 13F report). The market for iPhones is not yet saturated. (Berkshire is one of the largest shareholders of Apple.)

(10) Charlie Munger is happy with Abel and Jain. Share prices are not crazy with bonds at 3%. There is a bubble in bitcoin and in venture capital (too much money).

http://www.valuewalk.com/2018/01/10-highlights-warren-buffett-cnbc-january-10-2018/
7 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Hank Elvis Dobbs (texan) on 11/01/2018(UTC), Tim D on 11/01/2018(UTC), Danny Burns on 11/01/2018(UTC), Alan Selwood on 11/01/2018(UTC), Micawber on 12/01/2018(UTC), Mr Helpful on 12/01/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 12/01/2018(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 12 January 2018 09:04:03(UTC)

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King Lodos;55284 wrote:

This is interesting – some shared opinions in the highlights from Buffett and Munger today(/yesterday?) on CNBC:
(2) Stocks not richly valued at current interest rates. Interest rates act like gravity. Berkshire is a net buyer of equities. Equities are the place to be. Bonds paying 2% are selling for 50 times earnings with no growth. Corporations are earning 15% on assets.


And here is the latest view from Pring Turner :-

https://www.pringturner....isk-of-recession-today/

"The latest reading has pushed this leading economic indicator to new highs, and momentum is re-accelerating to the upside signaling low risk of recession in the months directly ahead. Continued economic strength should translate into higher stock prices. In other words, there is no recession in sight that would change our longer term optimistic view for stocks."

With the respected voices of Buffett, Munger and now Martin Pring tending bullish;
what is the poor Value Investor to do?
Stick with it, or re-work their methodology?

The words "this time is different", spring to mind; but am loathe to take too extreme a contrarian view; taking note of the opinions of these respected sources, who are far from afraid to swim against any prevailing current/viewpoint of the crowd.
jvl
Posted: 12 January 2018 09:54:21(UTC)

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Tug Boat;55241 wrote:
I came across MIGO a few weeks ago. It was too small about 80m, a fund of funds which I don't like, charges were high, it has a performance fee and didn't pay a dividend. Not what I was after at all.


According to HL, it doesn't have a performance fee.

I hold MIGO and would buy more but for it currently selling at a premium (I first bought it at a discount). Not sure what its overall discount/premium is if the assets were X-rayed.

I like its methodology, buying undervalued investment trusts, and at the time I was interested in buying quite a few of its top holdings.

Big_boy's always on about buying ITs at a discount. Occasionally I point out there are investment trusts, like MIGO and BTEM, doing this. Nah, he says. Hansa, Hansa, Oceans Wilson ;)


2 users thanked jvl for this post.
Mr Helpful on 12/01/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 12/01/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 12 January 2018 11:33:26(UTC)

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Mr Helpful;55287 wrote:
And here is the latest view from Pring Turner :-

https://www.pringturner....isk-of-recession-today/

"The latest reading has pushed this leading economic indicator to new highs, and momentum is re-accelerating to the upside signaling low risk of recession in the months directly ahead. Continued economic strength should translate into higher stock prices. In other words, there is no recession in sight that would change our longer term optimistic view for stocks."

With the respected voices of Buffett, Munger and now Martin Pring tending bullish;
what is the poor Value Investor to do?
Stick with it, or re-work their methodology?

The words "this time is different", spring to mind; but am loathe to take too extreme a contrarian view; taking note of the opinions of these respected sources, who are far from afraid to swim against any prevailing current/viewpoint of the crowd.


Well I was revisiting Ben Graham's value formula yesterday, and hadn't realised that later on he put a reference to interest rates in it .. So the godfather of value investing had realised that the value of a stock was always relative to what you could get elsewhere.

If you imagine a really low return future, you would need a system that makes a stock yielding 2% look attractive when the best you can get anywhere else is 1% .. I feel automation could push stock valuations far up as people realise owning bits of the machines that might replace them is an insurance policy.

It's a tricky one .. Because while upward pressure might be on stocks (if this is the beginning of a melt-up, rallies typically last 21 months from here), you're paying £1 for 4p of earnings – not a huge margin of safety.

I'm buying Quality stocks .. These often do rally in a melt-up, as people want to get involved, but there's a bit of safety in Quality – especially Consumer Staples, because they're one of the sectors whose earnings are least affected by recessions (people still buying toothpaste, etc).

I'm also buying themes (ETFs and funds) and using Stop-Losses on them .. Stop Losses are a way to participate if things keep going up, and get you out once it's clear that thesis is wrong .. The distance between where you buy in and where you get stopped out is what's on the line .. You could buy into the rally in 1% chunks, with Stop Losses at points that would tell you the rally is probably turning, which you nudge up .. Then, if markets turn straight away, you lose maybe 5% of 1% (negligible), but if they keep going another 5 months, you might have your aggressive allocation with the Stop Losses in at points that already guarantee you a profit .. And if markets turn, you want your Stops to leave you with the asset allocation you'd want in a bear market – and for me that would probably be 25% stocks, mostly Quality, and some real value (like Eastern Europe) which I always have some of


2 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
Mr Helpful on 12/01/2018(UTC), Tim D on 12/01/2018(UTC)
dlp6666
Posted: 12 January 2018 13:25:11(UTC)

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jvl;55292 wrote:
Tug Boat;55241 wrote:
I came across MIGO a few weeks ago. It was too small about 80m, a fund of funds which I don't like, charges were high, it has a performance fee and didn't pay a dividend. Not what I was after at all.


According to HL, it doesn't have a performance fee.

I hold MIGO and would buy more but for it currently selling at a premium (I first bought it at a discount). Not sure what its overall discount/premium is if the assets were X-rayed.

I like its methodology, buying undervalued investment trusts, and at the time I was interested in buying quite a few of its top holdings.

Big_boy's always on about buying ITs at a discount. Occasionally I point out there are investment trusts, like MIGO and BTEM, doing this.


It looks like Lazard's WTR does something very similar to MIGO, but also pays a 3.4% dividend:

http://www.lazardworldtr...wtf-factsheet-nov17.pdf

Performance may not be quite so impressive, though.

1 user thanked dlp6666 for this post.
jvl on 12/01/2018(UTC)
Tug Boat
Posted: 12 January 2018 17:53:47(UTC)

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Got a Bitcoin in my change in the pub last night.

Luck I noticed it, managed to swap it for a shiny new 1p piece after I alerted the barmaid to her error.
jvl
Posted: 12 January 2018 17:59:37(UTC)

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dlp6666;55301 wrote:

It looks like Lazard's WTR does something very similar to MIGO, but also pays a 3.4% dividend:

http://www.lazardworldtr...wtf-factsheet-nov17.pdf



When I looked it up on HL, I got the message:

"By law certain stocks must have a Key Investor Information Document / Key Information Document available before investors can purchase them. The party responsible for publishing the documents have not made them available to Hargreaves Lansdown for this stock and so it cannot be purchased"

That would be the EU's Mifid II again, wouldn't it?

I can't wait until we're out (properly). Though it's a forlorn hope that this timid corporatist government's going to exit properly, removing nanny-state guff like this...
3 users thanked jvl for this post.
Keith Hilton on 12/01/2018(UTC), Captain Slugwash on 12/01/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 15/01/2018(UTC)
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