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Mr Helpful
Posted: 16 June 2017 09:57:36(UTC)

Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
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john_r;47969 wrote:
Mr Helpful;47940 wrote:
The investment clock seems to be stuck somewhere between 9 and 12.
So continued pruning this week, as some positions lift their heads above the parapet.................Looking mainly to Bonds ST, esp USA to deposit the proceeds.


1. Received my annual statement for NS&I index linked savings (part of my Doomsday fund) this week . Wow - 3.51% tax free.
This is like the old days!

2. While we should survive a small bank rate rise when it comes - after that it will be fingers on the buttons for me. Until then I'm staying invested.


1. May 2017 inflation data :-
CPIH (which is the new headline figure adopted only recently) 2.7%
CPI (the old headline figure) 2.9%
RPI (as used by our NS&I IL Certs [and IL Gilts]) 3.7%
Which if any, do we believe is the true inflation figure?

The NS&I IL Certs are a valued heritable tax shelter and for us would be the last Cash asset to be sold for Stock reinvestment in the event of a really serious Stock meltdown.

2. While the investment clock seems to be between 9 and 12 judging by valuations and history, whether it is 9.30 or 11.59 haven't a clue !!!
So yes, we too are staying invested but as part of a process at a lower level than if valuations were more enticing.

The US has had three interest rate hikes and there is the old saying 'three steps and stumble'. Whether investors in general give any credence to such sayings, such that they become self-fulfilling, remains to be seen.
2 users thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
john_r on 16/06/2017(UTC), Freddy4Skin on 16/06/2017(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 16 June 2017 10:31:35(UTC)

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Just drinking my mid morning coffee and looking at markets. Looks like we are entering what I call the "frothy coffee" period. One day the markets froth up then they go flat. The bulls are all happy as they sit on profits and shares that can't go down as they are so wonderful. Fighting against them are the bears (seen it all before) who see the market has risen ((FTSE 100) from 6000 to 7500 in only a year. The battle tends to finish in tears.

The risk/reward is high and shareholders confidence is high as can be seen by the massive average discount decline for the Investment Trust sector.

My recommendation is reduce all ITs standing on discounts of less than 10%........for me the figure is 15% and this has worked well over many years.

My coffee has gone cold.......
3 users thanked Big boy for this post.
dyfed on 16/06/2017(UTC), Mickey on 16/06/2017(UTC), Jim S on 16/06/2017(UTC)
Mickey
Posted: 16 June 2017 12:18:32(UTC)

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Big boy;47984 wrote:
My recommendation is reduce all ITs standing on discounts of less than 10%........for me the figure is 15% and this has worked well over many years.

What is your opinion of those IT's with discount control policies? Is any fall likely to be less or more for those, eg. Seneca, Personal Assets, Martin Currie Global Growth etc.

Thanks.
jvl
Posted: 16 June 2017 12:44:17(UTC)

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I don't agree with this 15% across the board figure. There has to be some discrimination. Some low risk trusts have been at premiums or tiny discounts for a long time.

Suppose, at the extreme end, an IT is in 90% cash and has a 15% discount? Or it's in assets that have never moved more than 1% in a day?

While another has a lot invested, in say, Brazil, where a market could fall 15% in a day? And it has a 30% discount.

Not sure why that particular example popped into my head... ;)
1 user thanked jvl for this post.
dyfed on 16/06/2017(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 16 June 2017 13:27:50(UTC)

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During the last year Investment Trust shares have outperformed the underlying NAVs by a long way as investors gain confidence and the market moves closer to being overbought. Someone on the forum pointed out SMT fell 40% some years ago.

Investors need to understand that quoted stocks should be fairly valued as they are traded daily and constantly analysed. Buying ITs make sense and when manageing money I believe it's more important to understand human nature than trying to understand world economics. All Fund Managers need to tell stories which helps raise and retain money for their Companies. Understanding why stocks stand on discounts is very simple.....more sellers than buyers. Just look at Woodford PC. ....they loved the story and all went pilling in at a premium.....why are they now selling at a discount as the story hasn't changed.
1 user thanked Big boy for this post.
Vince. on 16/06/2017(UTC)
jvl
Posted: 16 June 2017 16:34:10(UTC)

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No one mentioned SMT as a low risk investment. We're talking RIT, etc.

You never mentioned LMS as a sub 30% discount play. Its discount got huge. I tried it and soon bailed out but I noticed it's bounced back up now and is regarded as 'expensive' (in Z-Scores) on a 25% discount.

One day Hansa's day will come...
Big boy
Posted: 16 June 2017 20:49:21(UTC)

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LMS is not a Private Investors stock unless you know what you are doing or you have access to specialist professional research. The discount is based on historic valuations which could be 12 months out of date....I am very happy with H which have gone from 700p to 900p during the last 12 months and I was happy to recommend them to all my friends. They produce daily NAVs

I am trying (not very successfully) to offer you another way of running money which is not conventional but has produced above average performance over many decades.
3 users thanked Big boy for this post.
Mickey on 17/06/2017(UTC), Mr Helpful on 18/06/2017(UTC), IanL on 19/06/2017(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 18 June 2017 14:51:05(UTC)

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Just mulling over JRS (JPM Russia) this week-end.

Anyone any thoughts?
Big boy
Posted: 18 June 2017 16:05:26(UTC)

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If you like the house prefer JPM Smaller on 21.9% discount..
2 users thanked Big boy for this post.
Sara G on 18/06/2017(UTC), jvl on 19/06/2017(UTC)
S Dobbo
Posted: 19 June 2017 02:34:00(UTC)

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Big boy;47997 wrote:
I am very happy with H which have gone from 700p to 900p during the last 12 months and I was happy to recommend them to all my friends. They produce daily NAVs

I am trying (not very successfully) to offer you another way of running money which is not conventional but has produced above average performance over many decades.


Hansa's 28% rise for a global fund over the past year with the fall of the pound etc. isn't really very impressive, SMT is up 64% and even chug along Witan is up 45%, not that you'd hold either as they don't have discounts of >15%! Hansa's discount is still over 30%, pretty much unchanged from its 12 month average. The SP is still down on its 2014 high price of 1000 and up a staggering 2.9% over 3 years.
1 user thanked S Dobbo for this post.
jvl on 19/06/2017(UTC)
jvl
Posted: 19 June 2017 09:45:35(UTC)

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Big boy;47997 wrote:

I am trying (not very successfully) to offer you another way of running money which is not conventional but has produced above average performance over many decades.


I already like buying unloved ITs at a discount but, as I've said before, I need to like their holdings, spread and charges. That's not the case with Hansa.

I'd also differ on the 15% magic number thing. I like ITs that are near their 10 year maximum discounts and start getting itchy if they're nearing their minimums. This magic "15% across the board" doesn't make sense. Is there a magic 15% encoded into human psychology?
satish mittal
Posted: 19 June 2017 15:52:58(UTC)

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I need avice please.
Should I sell Reynolds American 46% in 6 months or so. I do have BAT, MO, Atria also.
I have switched fund Man GLG European Continental Growth to TR European Growth which I used to have in 1980s & 90s. I also have Marlbrough European Multicap & a bit of EAT. Any overlaps?
If I have Fidelity Special Values & Stewart Asia pacific Leaders, Why do I need to invest in Emerging Market fund?
I am not taking profit on SMT, is it wise?
Thanks for help.
Satish
kWIKSAVE
Posted: 19 June 2017 16:10:31(UTC)

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Satish

I can tell you are perfectly able to decide for yourself !
2 users thanked kWIKSAVE for this post.
satish mittal on 19/06/2017(UTC), john_r on 19/06/2017(UTC)
kWIKSAVE
Posted: 19 June 2017 16:12:10(UTC)

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I am considering an investment in Pictet Water ......

seems to have good credentials.

Experienced team, large fund, well spread.
2 users thanked kWIKSAVE for this post.
satish mittal on 19/06/2017(UTC), c brown on 21/06/2017(UTC)
john_r
Posted: 19 June 2017 23:46:32(UTC)

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Mr Helpful;48017 wrote:
Just mulling over JRS (JPM Russia) this week-end.
Anyone any thoughts?


JRS has been falling since the beginning of the year from 563p to 448p now and on a straight line basis.
Why do you think this trend is going to reverse?


1 user thanked john_r for this post.
Mr Helpful on 20/06/2017(UTC)
Tyrion Lannister
Posted: 19 June 2017 23:46:46(UTC)

Joined: 03/03/2017(UTC)
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Big boy;47987 wrote:
During the last year Investment Trust shares have outperformed the underlying NAVs by a long way as investors gain confidence and the market moves closer to being overbought. Someone on the forum pointed out SMT fell 40% some years ago.

Investors need to understand that quoted stocks should be fairly valued as they are traded daily and constantly analysed. Buying ITs make sense and when manageing money I believe it's more important to understand human nature than trying to understand world economics. All Fund Managers need to tell stories which helps raise and retain money for their Companies. Understanding why stocks stand on discounts is very simple.....more sellers than buyers. Just look at Woodford PC. ....they loved the story and all went pilling in at a premium.....why are they now selling at a discount as the story hasn't changed.


How true that is, but I've yet to hear a professional investor admit it. 😀
jvl
Posted: 20 June 2017 10:14:00(UTC)

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What's in human nature that makes '15%' as a discount special then? I've yet to hear big_boy expand on this.
jvl
Posted: 20 June 2017 10:15:38(UTC)

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kWIKSAVE;48063 wrote:
I am considering an investment in Pictet Water ......

seems to have good credentials.

Experienced team, large fund, well spread.


.. clear strategy, very liquid...
chazza
Posted: 20 June 2017 10:46:32(UTC)

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jvl,

good pun or sage advice?
but you have my attention!
Mr Helpful
Posted: 20 June 2017 11:04:00(UTC)

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john_r;48072 wrote:
Mr Helpful;48017 wrote:
Just mulling over JRS (JPM Russia) this week-end.
Anyone any thoughts?


JRS has been falling since the beginning of the year from 563p to 448p now and on a straight line basis.
Why do you think this trend is going to reverse?




This has popped up as one of the less historically high-priced positions in our generally fully priced portfolio.
However to become a really possible top-up candidate, would like to see another 6% or more shaved off the price to about 420p; which may be asking too much?

Have no reason think the trend is about to reverse, quite the contrary looking at the chart. But then not being a dedicated momentum follower remain open to the possibility that at some point it might well turn?
Uncertain how the unravelling USA v Russia relationship, or non-relationship, will play out. (Rouble, etc).

So just seeking valued opinions !!!
As thought fodder.
1 user thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
john_r on 20/06/2017(UTC)
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