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Micawber
Posted: 28 August 2015 10:19:17(UTC)
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As forum members are curious about what others are buying or selling, I thought it worth starting an experimental thread for the purpose.

Today: I sold out of Go Ahead Group at profit of 64% over 30 months not counting dividend (currently yielding about 3.5%, was over 5% when I bought it). Reasons for buying were good yield plus growth prospects in the unregulated bus division, stable in the rail division with a chance of the Crossrail contract (which was successful last year) I also reasoned three years ago that with consumer spending very tight, there would be more public transport journeys at the expense of private motoring, Reasons for selling: share price has remained rather static this year; yield has declined while growth prospects dimmer in present regulatory climate (rail fare caps) and cheaper fuel, while benefitting the bus division, is likely to lead to a reversal of that last assumption. Stagecoach's results prompted me to take the decision.

The sale fits with our strategy of reducing weight in growth and looking for income. At present I am not likely to be reinvesting that cash until the Fed has made its move - unless the kind of bargains available last Monday are repeated in some other turbulence.
13 users thanked Micawber for this post.
Ark Welder on 28/08/2015(UTC), lynne shaffer on 29/08/2015(UTC), jeffian on 29/08/2015(UTC), SDM on 03/09/2015(UTC), RichardW on 03/09/2015(UTC), novicetrader on 05/09/2015(UTC), c brown on 16/09/2015(UTC), Hilary hames on 16/10/2015(UTC), Mickey on 12/03/2016(UTC), andy on 02/09/2016(UTC), Andrew Richardson on 10/10/2016(UTC), Mikki on 10/01/2017(UTC), Guest on 12/01/2017(UTC)
Paul Anderson
Posted: 28 August 2015 12:51:48(UTC)
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<i>At present I am not likely to be reinvesting that cash until the Fed has made its move - unless the kind of bargains available last Monday are repeated in some other turbulence.</i>

Pretty much my thinking, I too am looking at buying good income funds, I bought a small holding in BRCI on Monday which is currently yielding silly % and looks oversold, commodities/miners/oil have taken a huge hit recently on the China slowdown, but medium to long term investors could do worse than buy these funds at distressed prices now to put away and forget.

Still looking for other possibilities and BLP caught my eye, a good discount and handsome yield are offset by high charges and gearing so quite risky, but a possible candidate for recycling incoming dividends.
Ark Welder
Posted: 28 August 2015 17:01:13(UTC)
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Er. I'll start off by saying: a zero yielding, cash gobbling, university-spinout technology company which is listed on AIM... :-)

The company in question being Kromek, and top-ups have been made via the recent open offer and subsequently in the secondary market.

So what am I - as an income investor - doing by holding a 'Jam tomorrow. Possibly...' type of company? Basically, it is to scratch a particular itch. Suffice to say that this holding is just a bit of pocket money, would not be the end of the world if my eventual return equalled minus 100%, and how the performance compares against other types of company is unimportant to me. It does not impact upon my core holdings, and has the potential to provide a bit of fun.

I don't have a specific target price or timescale in mind for an exit. Whether any further purchases are made will depend upon circumstances at the particular time. Again, no specific triggers for this are in mind.


Before this, I did buy a few extra premium bonds - does that count too?!!
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Guest on 12/01/2017(UTC)
Alan Selwood
Posted: 28 August 2015 20:28:38(UTC)
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Ark Welder,

To buy a start-up, speculative holding of small size together with some Premium Bonds sounds an excellent way of balancing risk and reward! A sort of 'barbell' approach as used in the past by one of the Axa Framlington funds, if I remember correctly, though in that case it was high growth plus boring, income-oriented megacap that gave the balance.

(When the Premium Bonds go belly up, you will be able to rely on the start-up to bail you out..........!

I have said in the past in this forum what I really think about Premium Bonds......!
Micawber
Posted: 28 August 2015 20:43:11(UTC)
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Ark: I am amazed! I always had you down as an ultra-conservative investor.

I got my fingers burned on Kromek eighteen months ago. They have a good story, and are not a one product company (they have two or three) and have some decent (but small) contracts. If I recall correctly, I concluded they had poor business management and were poorly advised by their NOMAD. However, at 28p (about half the price at which I exited) they don't look expensive. As with Premium Bonds, you are investing in hope. And without hope, there is no hope (if you see what I mean). So good luck to you.

Me, I bought Plant Impact and Learning Technologies at the beginning of the year, and Accsys Technologies a couple of years ago, along similar lines of hope. So far, so good.
Alan Selwood
Posted: 28 August 2015 22:41:33(UTC)
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Some years ago, I bought Accsys Technologies, which I thought had the basis of a viable, patented, good idea of a product (using a vinegar-like fluid to preserve softwoods to make them as durable as hardwoods) but felt that I got in too soon, as the price started to waver, so I baled out. Fortunate move, as the price really crumbled after that!
Micawber
Posted: 29 August 2015 04:07:07(UTC)
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I bought after the contract with Solvay. AXS then got in to difficulties over their licensee in China and lost their legal case there, denting their small revenues and the sp.. Meanwhile Solvay's new plant is going ahead and I'm currently 3% up on the share price and holding. Also considering new windows with their acetylated wood! (Is there no end to painstaking investment research? ..... )

PlM I'm 7.5% up and LTG breaking even. And those are my three small "fun" holdings.

P.S. I was lately very tempted by Wolf's tungsten mine at Plymouth (WLFE) but that would transgress one of my avoidance principles so l slapped myself on the wrist and have since topped up in GSK instead. It goes without saying that Wolf has risen 15% since I decided not to buy a few days ago.
Alan Selwood
Posted: 29 August 2015 10:32:18(UTC)
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One thing is certain in the investment world - whenever there are two options, the selection is always the one that proved to be wrong!

I noted in an email this morning that on Monday there was a brief period when a biotech ETF was on sale at 50% of the previous week's value, and by last Friday had recovered the drop. Why didn't anyone tell me at the bottom of the drop !!!!!!!
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c brown on 16/09/2015(UTC)
Alan Selwood
Posted: 29 August 2015 10:33:43(UTC)
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micawber,

Which avoidance principle were you invoking then you avoided the WLFE mining share?
1 user thanked Alan Selwood for this post.
J Thomas on 03/03/2016(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 29 August 2015 11:42:16(UTC)
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Alan Selwood;29091 wrote:
micawber,

Which avoidance principle were you invoking then you avoided the WLFE mining share?

That should be a separate thread really. (You recently noted that part of an investment strategy involved things to avoid. I agree.)
Ark Welder
Posted: 29 August 2015 15:45:11(UTC)
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Alan, I remember barbell approaches - they were touted by some split-cap ITs back in the day, too! The Framlington name certanly rings a bell in this respect, and not just because of NetNet...


Micawber, I hope that you're sitting down because I'm about to tell you that Kromek is one of six AIM-listed companies that I hold, none of which are investment companies - a cup of tea with lots of sugar in it might help! (Also, two FTSE 100, seven FTSE 250, two SmallCap, one Fledgling, one preference share and two retail bonds. Double-brandy time???). The whys and wherefores as to how these fit in with my collective holdings being thread deviancy, so I'll plead the Fifth :-)

The big fall for KMK at the end of March last year coincided with the release of a trading statement to the effect that expected orders would be delayed beyond the end of the financial year, so current-year revenues would be below expectations. The recent drop came with the news about the fundraising, so not that much out of place with how other company fundraisings can develop. Although I note that the drop started just before then when a major shareholder reduced their holding. But as a sub-1% holding, KMK isn't going to break the bank if the ball ends up in double zero! And yes, I also understand that I am just piddling at the edges in the event that it should ever soar.

As for the premium bonds, I treat these as a 7-day notice account, and one which just happens to have delivered a higher return in the last tax year than if I'd left the cash in my instant access account. I don't want to be actively managing cash, i.e. moving amounts around on a monthly basis in order to qualify for a higher rate of interest on a couple of thousand quid, and parking some readies out of the way so that I am less likely to spend it on fripperies is my solution.
Micawber
Posted: 03 September 2015 08:14:27(UTC)
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Micawber;29071 wrote:


Today: I sold out of Go Ahead Group at profit of 64% over 30 months not counting dividend (currently yielding about 3.5%, was over 5% when I bought it). Reasons for buying were good yield plus growth prospects in the unregulated bus division, stable in the rail division with a chance of the Crossrail contract (which was successful last year) I also reasoned three years ago that with consumer spending very tight, there would be more public transport journeys at the expense of private motoring, Reasons for selling: share price has remained rather static this year; yield has declined while growth prospects dimmer in present regulatory climate (rail fare caps) and cheaper fuel, while benefitting the bus division, is likely to lead to a reversal of that last assumption. Stagecoach's results prompted me to take the decision.

..... and GOG 's results out today, though quite good, are not as good as expected so the shares have this morning dropped 7%.
Alan Selwood
Posted: 03 September 2015 08:46:30(UTC)
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Well done, micawber!

Market-timing at its best!
xcity
Posted: 08 September 2015 19:39:05(UTC)
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What I most want to do is find stocks to add to my long term 'core' holdings. The key factors for me are the quality of the management and the share price/value - I'm not fussy about whether they are growth, cyclical or even in decline and I finding ones I am happy with is proving difficult at the moment. I noticed John Lee commenting at the weekend that he was finding it hard to find stocks at the moment too. I was just nearing the end of my due diligence on Amblin only to find them agreeing to a takeover they said would never happen overnight. Slightly frustrating. I'm thinking I might need to be a bit less fussy about getting the right price as a few have gone away from me over the last few months. At least the ones I did buy have done well too.

Separately, I've also been thinking it was time to think about moving into EMs. Noticed John Lee saying the same, and then a (small) host of other comments saying the same. Luckily none of them will be enough to move share prices.
uphill swimmer
Posted: 08 September 2015 20:39:02(UTC)
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xcity, i have been adding to Blackstone Group at every opportunity,among the many reasons is the quality of management and price/value. Every interview i read with the C.E.O. Schwarzman he seems exasperated that the share price does not reflect the almost unique position of the group[ Friday's New York Times a case in point] . Recent positive developments away from their well documented core operations have been a growing desire to take advantage of the weak,over regulated/obligated "traditional" institutions and target mortgages(notably Spain and U.S.) and retail investors who are desperate for alternative.
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xcity on 01/10/2015(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 16 September 2015 07:46:18(UTC)
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From the earlier thread on " has the bull market ended?"

Micawber;29002 wrote:
On the "what are you selling/buying" theme - for what it is worth (remember that this is a piece of my own investing jigsaw, not any kind of recommendation):
....
I have bought Henderson Group HGG, Reasons: the UK investment management sector in general is likely to benefit from changes to pensions etc over the past year and, except when investors forsake both equities and fixed interest, should increase AUM. I find Henderson's management teams and funds/ITs a good group with a decent spread of sectors. There has been steady dividend growth over the past five years and the shares currently yield 3.6%. The price to book is high and so is the level of financing; against that the operating margin and ROE are good.. I see HGG as a probable medium to long term hold for us. With the sale of CLIG we have no other fund management group in the pf directly.

I looked at Liontrust Asset management (LIO) which was a tip in IC at the end of July but preferred Henderson. LIO is smaller, its price to book higher, its ROE about the same and its operating margin lower. Its dividend has grown very strongly to date (so the PEG is better), its yield is lower (2.5%) and cover is 2.5 against HGG's 1.7.


I see that in the 20 days since, LlO has dropped by 20% while HGG is down only 1.27%. Phew! But surely that puts LlO into bargain territory, unless I've missed a major point. [ , . . along with Investors' Chronicle ]
16
Posted: 16 September 2015 14:51:48(UTC)
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Hi
I don't usually discuss my investment decisions but saw Wolf Minerals mentioned above.
I bought some just over 6 months ago for just under 15p They went up over 20p but then fell back. I bought more again when they briefly went below 15 p again recently.

My reasoning.
The Good news. Production appears to starting proving the process plant.
The Bad news. Commodity prices generally down.

Views?. Short term or long term hold...if at all.
J Thomas
Posted: 16 September 2015 15:19:34(UTC)
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Slightly off topic, over the last couple of days the coverage of EL NINO in the Financial Times and Telegraph seems to have raised the prices of commodities and consumer staples shares such as Unilever, RB, etc.
If the scientists are correct economists believe food prices may increase by up to 10% by spring 2016, especially coffee, sugar, cocoa, and grain, imported from South and Central America.
The scientists are basically saying this years EL NINO could be the worst for fifty years with severe drought in America and an extremely cold winter in Europe, colder than the 2009/10 winter even.
Not very nice if this transpires, however has anybody altered their holdings with regard to these reports ? (PS, I own shares in the above mentioned Companies.)
Micawber
Posted: 18 September 2015 16:19:12(UTC)
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xcity;29321 wrote:
What I most want to do is find stocks to add to my long term 'core' holdings. The key factors for me are the quality of the management and the share price/value


Have you taken a close look at Rolls-Royce (RR.)? New CEO, profit warnings (four if I recall correctly) probably out of the way now, solid future order and maintenance book, transatlantic and other defence budgets likely to have bottomed out....
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xcity on 01/10/2015(UTC), Guest on 05/10/2016(UTC)
Alan Selwood
Posted: 18 September 2015 20:21:08(UTC)
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On the face of it, RR should be a good long-term winner.

Shame about the recent performance!

The ultimate key to success should be the value of the long-term maintenance contracts, which should produce a much steadier return than cyclical sales of aero engines for new aircraft.

Of course, they do have to keep the engine technology up with the competition's, so lots of R & D spend is par for the course, whether aircraft sales are high or low.
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