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Ageing UK population
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Tony Ryan
Posted: 23 January 2013 15:13:11(UTC)
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Please, Does anyone have strong suggestions on well managed investment trusts or equities that are positioned to benefit from the ageing UK demographic?
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Fred Wayman on 24/01/2013(UTC)
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 23 January 2013 19:44:36(UTC)
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Sorry, I didn't see this or realise its relevance to investment trusts. So I created another thread. Here is what I said:

Look for anything with health care (or healthcare) in the title - nursing homes, builders of doctors' surgeries (older usually means sicker).

Look for any manufacturer of replacement hips, knees and other joints.

Cruises and gentle activity holidays, hotels.

Cheap leisure activities - bingo, amusement arcades, bookies. NB not all old people are poor.

Bus companies - more and more people are becoming very old and giving up their cars. Those who currently misgovern us have promised not to scrap bus passes.

Dignity (funeral directors) - the death rate will not climb unless benefit cuts really do bite hard but older people have the time to think about death and seem to want to go out in style.

If you don't know how to find such companies, try Digitallook.com or the London Stock Exchange which have search facilities and categorise companies by sector.
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Tony Ryan on 23/01/2013(UTC), Fred Wayman on 24/01/2013(UTC)
busy bee
Posted: 23 January 2013 22:31:19(UTC)
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Its the young that spend money so basing it on the elderley surely is not worthwhile. take the 30-40 year olds with children and income of £100K + - there are loads of them and they spend money like water. Also the 16-21 year olds who spend oodles of money on their ipad etc - why on earth are apple and vodaphone so sucessful ?

The average golden oldie saves yoghourt pots for seed container, grows their own veg, saves loo rolls to light the fire, saves every drop of metered water, lives with one light bulb per person in the house on at any one time, and never ever goes out for a meal. Mobile phone - forget it - we managed with fixed phones and its nice to be out-of-touch ! We need all our carefuly saved money to pay for our care home & higher taxes, or our final trip to Switzerland.

So forget your strategy - think again !!!
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Tony Ryan
Posted: 24 January 2013 10:35:06(UTC)
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Busy Bee, thanks for the opinion however there is a grey pound out there and it's not burdened with mortgage and credit cards it also benefits from state benefits so I'll beg to differ with your analysis !
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colin wilson on 27/01/2013(UTC)
Clueless
Posted: 24 January 2013 16:54:38(UTC)
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I always liked the look of EEA life settlement fund, the returns were always positive from memory, does anyone know of any similar funds that perhaps target the UK market?


My blog

www.trade2amillion.wordpress.com
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Tony Ryan on 24/01/2013(UTC)
Luckycontrarian
Posted: 24 January 2013 16:59:45(UTC)
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Look at Primary Health Properties - PHP - both from an equity and a bond perspective - they are a REIT administering NHS surgeries, dentists, nursing homes etc. Not particularly cheap but not over-valued and a handy and (currently) consistent dividend stream, currently paying c.5.5%. I own the equity as opposed to the retail bond in my SIPP.
Here's what Questor said in the Telegraph (though I have a feeling that most journos are Jonah when it comes to stocks, no offence Citywire)...
http://www.telegraph.co....oves-dividend-cover.html
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Tony Ryan on 24/01/2013(UTC), Guest on 26/01/2013(UTC)
Graham D-C
Posted: 24 January 2013 17:31:22(UTC)
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Diabetes has now reached pandemic proportions. James Hunt has said he will ring fence money to tackle the problem in the UK- 5m peope affected by circa 2020. China has 93m diabetes suffers in an ageing population, the cost to the U.S. economy in terms of unemployment benefits,amputations and medicare etc, runs into hundreds of millions of dollars in an industry valued at $13.5bn. EKF is a budding UK company whose products have been approved by NICE and is making inroads into the U.S. with a range of licenced products. DYOR
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Graham D-C
Posted: 24 January 2013 17:35:42(UTC)
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sorry repeat post
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Bernard Bedford
Posted: 24 January 2013 18:58:48(UTC)
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I agree about the grey population spending less as it grows older. From a demographic point of view the UK may not be the best place to invest since the boost in GDP growth from the baby boomers in the 80s and 90s has eased off, as has the impact of increasing numbers of women entering the workforce. According to Jeremy Grantham's take on US population growth and GDP on the GMO website, the Western World may not be the greatest place to be investing for the future.
I agree that health will be a big issue so WWH Worldwide Health IT is a possibility. Biotechnology has outperformed in recent years eg Biotech Growth BIOG so will that continue? GP property has always been a safe and effective investment for GPs, with guaranteed Government reimbursement for NHS use of premises. Now there are Primare Care Property funds like the already mentioned PHP and there's Medicx Fund IT currently at a premium of +22, with a dividend of around 7.5%. Whether this will always be a guaranteed safe income stream seems likely but bear in mind no one seems to know where primary care is going at present.
If you can get over the fact that PFI contracts have been badly written and sometimes rip off the NHS etc, then HICL, JLIF, INPP, GPC infrastructure etc. appear to provide a relatively safe income stream with some capital appreciation though all are running at a premium. I've seen a feeling expressed that it would be easier to let an NHS built hospital go to the wall than a PFI one if the market becomes more competitive and if hospitals fail.
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Tony Ryan on 25/01/2013(UTC)
Dennis .
Posted: 27 January 2013 09:26:52(UTC)
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Busy bee said We need all our carefuly saved money to pay for our care home & higher taxes, or our final trip to Switzerland.

Perhaps Dignitas should now be offering gift vouchers.
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colin wilson on 27/01/2013(UTC), Jeremy Bosk on 27/01/2013(UTC)
Tony Ryan
Posted: 27 January 2013 11:16:26(UTC)
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I was looking for rationale investment advice rather than morbid self obsession
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Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 27 January 2013 22:41:03(UTC)
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Tony

If you touch on a topic dear to most reader's hearts - old age which for most is either with us or close at hand - you must expect the question to be taken personally!

Dennis was being facetious.

I don't know that many really old people. One who is almost 77 has fairly recently been diagnosed with a well advanced cancer. He is quite stoic about the chemotherapy etcetera. But, for the last few years he and his wife have taken two or sometimes three exotic holidays - China, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Canada etcetera. His main complaint is the difficulty getting travel insurance.

Some while ago, I worked in the travel industry and saw that elderly people who can afford luxuries do indulge themselves. They may go for value for money because they have the time and inclination to look for bargains.

PS Has Citywire ever done an age profile of subscribers?
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Dennis .
Posted: 28 January 2013 09:27:32(UTC)
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In an ageing population the obvious choices are things like
1. healthcare, so GSK, pharma in general
2. "senior living" ie flats for oldies like Mcarthy & Stone
3 Things to make it easier to live in your house independently for longer eg Stannah stair lifts (private company so no investment opportunity there), mobility scooters etc.
4 I guess eventually we will have some sort of home help robot but that will probably come from the likes of Samsung or Sony.

can others add to the list?
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