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How Long Do We Have?
banjofred
Posted: 02 January 2013 15:13:29(UTC)
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How Long Do We Have?

We are always told to invest for the LONG term, but let me give you two reasons not to do so.

The first is obvious - Life is Short. By the time you are ready to start spending your nest egg, the grim reaper will be knocking. Actuaries do of course depend on this in order to take your money. They tell you the average pension age needs raising as people are living longer. This is of course crap. Look at the obitiuaries in your local paper, just look at the ages.

Secondly, its all going to hell, and the current "civilisation" is past time to collapse, but heading in the right directoin to do so.

About the time of the US new constitution in 1787, Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh, had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years earlier:

'A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a
permanent form of government.'
'A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves
generous gifts from the public treasury.' 'From that moment on, the majority
always vote for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public
treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to
loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.'
'The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of
history, has been about 200 years'
'During those 200 years, those nations always progressed through the following
sequence:
1. from bondage to spiritual faith;
2. from spiritual faith to great courage;
3. from courage to liberty;
4. from liberty to abundance;
5. from abundance to complacency;
6. from complacency to apathy;
7. from apathy to dependence;
8. from dependence back into bondage'



Happy New Year


Armageddon out of the stock market.

banjo
6 users thanked banjofred for this post.
Buyhighselllow on 02/01/2013(UTC), misss sold on 03/01/2013(UTC), Steve123 on 03/01/2013(UTC), mikest on 03/01/2013(UTC), Stephen Garsed on 11/01/2013(UTC), Pensionable age on 12/01/2013(UTC)
Buyhighselllow
Posted: 02 January 2013 23:42:56(UTC)
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The question is how to profit / limit our losses from this inevitable decline?

Ps, I give it 30 years, a generation, before we're all speaking Chinese.
misss sold
Posted: 03 January 2013 00:37:00(UTC)
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Interesting debate!... as a newcomer, why can't I access FTSE over multiple decades?.. All the sites seem to max out at five years, but all advice is to invest for 10-20 years? but don't publish the FTSE for the same preriod?
banjofred
Posted: 03 January 2013 14:52:53(UTC)
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Just google FTSE history chart you can see back to 1985

Also google stock markets history you can see back
To 1900 etc

What goes up must go down

It's just when

If you have long time scale you can afford to
Sit tight for divis but even then only buy in
When its crashed not when it's topping out like
Now

I sold out FTSE all share fund SWIP at lunchtime
It's gone up a bit since but I am happy with
7% profit and now wait for a bit

Citywire has all the 3 yr 1 yr etc info
Few funds are making us fortunes

Anyone got suggestions ?

Fred
1 user thanked banjofred for this post.
Pensionable age on 12/01/2013(UTC)
mikest
Posted: 03 January 2013 18:07:33(UTC)
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Re ‘banjofred’ comments on democracy.
If by ‘greatest civilizations’ we mean ‘most influential’, then perhaps Alexander Tyler is right. But if the term refers to those civilizations who appear to be learning from their mistakes (however slowly), then perhaps Western democracies may still be considered ‘great’ in the years ahead.
Ending his talk ‘Why Democracy Matters’ (www.ted.com), Rory Stewart (ok, he’s a tory but note the small ‘t’) declared: “ …….. if democracy is to be rebuilt, is to become again vigorous and vibrant, it is necessary not just for the public to learn to trust their politicians, but for the politicians to learn to trust the public.”
Fine words but, unless accompanied by fine deeds, likely to be swept away if we are now between steps 6 and 7 in Mr Tyler’s sequence.
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 04 January 2013 07:24:05(UTC)
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Religion and nationalist jingoism, singly and in combination rot the brains of billions. Add in tribalism, racism, sexism and a few other "isms" and we are doomed to see civilisation wither on an environmentally degraded planet until large parts of the world are reduced to cannibalism. Why? because the two legged vermin refuse to think and act with a rational concern for themselves, their fellows and their planet. It is not an innate inability but laziness and a conditioned response to brainwashing.

What to do about it? Teach everyone to read, write, add up and THINK. Offer genuine education to those who want it. At the end of compulsory education have a series of tests of the willingness and ability to think (not blind belief in anything). Those who fail to be put down like any other dangerous wild animal. Have regular reviews for adults with the same consequences.

Promote internationalism and atheism. Where nations collectively exhibit signs of deep and dangerous irrationality we should take steps to diminish their influence. As well as exposing their lunacy, stupidity etcetera we could try very hard to disengage economically and socially. The alternative would be to recolonise most of the planet. We need to put our own house in order first.

Examples of deep and dangerous irrationality:

US gun control legislation (effectively none).

Belief that terrorising terrorists with drone strikes, kidnapping, torture, the murder of innocent civilians etcetera actually works. Only two things work with terrorists (including those who try to terrorise other terrorists). Those are: their death and the destruction of the social, political, economic and religious networks that bred them; or intense and prolonged psychotherapy with close monitoring thereafter. The latter is impractical on a large scale.

Launching wars of aggression to appease the megalomania of politicians or seize natural resources - Iraq II.

The belief that women are to be used and abused as pleases men - the recent New Delhi gang rape which is duplicated on a smaller scale in the inner cities of many Western countries including this one. It is a gang initiation rite in some places.

The belief that male children are more valuable, leading to sex selective abortion, female infanticide, worse food and education for females etcetera. India and China have a ridiculously high proportion of young males to young females. This will surely lead to trouble.

Misogyny as practised in most Islamic countries and many allegedly Christian developing countries.

The belief that some politician claiming a pipeline to a non existent deity is infallible. Popes and Ayatollahs take note.

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Why, me of course. I wouldn't trust you lot.



Clive B
Posted: 04 January 2013 09:19:38(UTC)
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Jeremy

"Teach everyone to read, write, add up and THINK. ...Those who fail to be put down like any other dangerous wild animal"

Guess you mean "Teach everyone to THINK like me". I imagine it unlikely you'd be the one implementing these policies, so seems likely you might be the first victim as your thinking is out of line with billions of others.

Clive
1 user thanked Clive B for this post.
Stephen Garsed on 11/01/2013(UTC)
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 05 January 2013 15:55:07(UTC)
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Clive

Actually I mean think and argue rationally. There are a great many areas where reasonable people can disagree without being unpardonably ignorant or stupid. They can generally either agree to disagree, agree to do some research to find out, or wait for time to show who is least wrong.

Reasonable people can define their terms and agree on what would constitute a workable approximation to the truth.

Unreasonable people do not understand then need for a common vocabulary, do not understand or operate on a logical level and appeal to bogus authority rather than verifiable fact or empirical reasoning. Religious fundamentalists who claim that the world is only 6,000 years old. Or people who use terms like "everybody knows", or "out of line with billions of others".

Billions of people don't think and refuse to learn to think. They believe all sorts of rubbish. Which can be dangerous. Evidence based reasoning is not the same as irrational belief or prejudice.

I once spent an hour talking to a friend's lodger. A very pleasant young woman with a good degree from a respectable university. She was a little too fond of management speak but then she was a third year management consultant with one of what was then the Big Four global accountancy / auditing / management consultancy practices. I asked her how long it took her to know what the organisation she was advising really needed. "Well, I always go in, look around, talk to a few people and get them to fill in the standard questionnaires. But I never start a new assignment without consulting my astrologer. So I always know what to expect."

I expect that by now she has been promoted to head whichever body decides which scientists get government funding.



Clive B
Posted: 05 January 2013 17:12:25(UTC)
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Jeremy

This made me laugh..."Or people who use terms like "everybody knows", or "out of line with billions of others"

You're right, I didn't get the "billions" from extensive research. Did you when you said "Religion and nationalist jingoism, singly and in combination rot the brains of billions" ? It was those billions I was guessing you'd be out of line with

And you repeat the accusation (may be true, may not, who knows) with "Billions of people don't think and refuse to learn to think"

I'm OK with what you say, was just attempting to poke fun at it in a gentle way.

Clive
Jeremy Bosk
Posted: 05 January 2013 19:49:23(UTC)
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Clive

I know that you are generally a reasonable sort of person.

I am sorry that my last response was short on humour.

For whatever reason I am not feeling up to witty repartee just now. So I will sign off and wish you well.

Jeremy

Clive B
Posted: 05 January 2013 22:56:15(UTC)
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Jeremy

I took no offense from your comments.

Clive
Hmmmmm
Posted: 07 January 2013 15:58:42(UTC)
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http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north484.html
http://www.snopes.com/po...ics/ballot/athenian.asp

So the second part of the email is based on false information. Also, I am guessing that to the author of the original made-up email, civilization = USA, which 200 years on would be 'overdue for collapse'.

In reality, civilization has lasted a LOT longer than that, with various nation-states in accendency or decline.

Hmmmm
banjofred
Posted: 11 January 2013 06:27:40(UTC)
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Hmmmm

yes, well......


OK, even if we take out the 200 years part, its a fact that many great civilisations came and went, and there must have been reasons for the decline.

We know that the most recent German 1000 year Reich lasted a paltry 20 years as it was run by low-lifes, but then who is now running the new German Reich called the EU - more low lifes,

It would be nice ot think that time takes us gradually forward to a utopian future, but it fact catastrophe theory is a better analogy as we more slowly towards the cliff edge.

But thanks for that expose.
huudi
Posted: 16 January 2013 22:41:09(UTC)
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misss sold;17378 wrote:
Interesting debate!... as a newcomer, why can't I access FTSE over multiple decades?.. All the sites seem to max out at five years, but all advice is to invest for 10-20 years? but don't publish the FTSE for the same preriod?

I suggest you read 'The Downwave' by Bob Beckman, it charts markets since records began and shows that crashes and depressions are regular. We do not learn from history, always knowing that it cannot happen again.
You ain't seen nothing yet!
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