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PNL
Ludditeme
Posted: 27 April 2018 07:22:51(UTC)
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Mantra change required?

"Protect and increase wealth in that order..."

Apologies, it's Friday and I should cheer up but it's not doing what it says on the tin!
3 users thanked Ludditeme for this post.
Fell Walker on 27/04/2018(UTC), Myfyr Madoc-Jones on 28/04/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 04/06/2018(UTC)
Fell Walker
Posted: 27 April 2018 07:36:09(UTC)
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I was just looking at Trojan fund on a chart selection I have saved on Trustnet and wondering how a fund with capital preservation as it's key feature can be -3% over a year that's just had a small wobble. I'm glad I sold out at the start of the year.

They are often quoted for their performance during 2008 but are all corrections and crashes going to have the same fundamentals? The only low volatility specific fund I still have is Henderson UK Absolute Return.
1 user thanked Fell Walker for this post.
Ludditeme on 27/04/2018(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 27 April 2018 08:14:53(UTC)
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Always worth looking at the underlying holdings, asking whether the investor would choose to hold direct?
In 2008 Ian Rushbrook was in charge, but with his sad death performance cannot be expected to continue seamlessly.
https://www.scotsman.com...ian-rushbrook-1-1136880

We might however see more downside protection with a serious Stocks' set-back.
It isn't easy to build a defensive portfolio with the options available today, as pretty much everything fully priced.

Could any of us do any better?
If so; that DIY choice always remains open.
2 users thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
Tim D on 27/04/2018(UTC), Ludditeme on 27/04/2018(UTC)
Ludditeme
Posted: 27 April 2018 11:33:58(UTC)
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Thanks. With respect to doing better - I would have been better served by holding more cash and accepted the hit with inflation.

I'm looking at a 6.5% drop should I sell (which I won't).



1 user thanked Ludditeme for this post.
Guest on 03/06/2018(UTC)
Keith Cobby
Posted: 27 April 2018 17:33:15(UTC)
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The problem with PNL and the other perma-bears is that in good times you don't make any money and in bad times you also lose money.
martin b.
Posted: 28 April 2018 22:23:15(UTC)
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Hi

I looked into this a few months ago

PNL has very low volativity (48) it had recovered from the 2008 hit within 2 years but it has only grown 9% in 5 years.

So I wondered if there were other low volatile, quick recovering but better growth ITs. This led me to the following list:-

EPIC - Volativity (lowest is best) - yrs to recover from 2008 crash - 5yr growth

PNL -48 - 2yrs - 9%
MWY - 68 - 2ys - 46%
3in - 86 - 2.25yrs - 57%
RCP - 92 - 2.3yrs - 53%
BTEM- 85 - 2.5 yrs - 37%
WTAN- 89 - 2.5yrs - 77%

Of course the past is no predictor of the future etc etc but to me this shows that while PNL easily has the lowest volativity there are other ITs that recovered from the crash just as quickly as PNL but have gone on to have much better growth. Of these 3in also has the benefit of a 3.8% yield although it has suffered recently. WTAN and RCP stand out for me.

It seems to me that all companies are at risk of losing money during a crash but so long as they bounce back quickly I am not that worried. Investing is for the long term. It's also worth noting that SMT which is a much more volatile trust had also recovered from the '08 crash within 3.5 yrs and its 5 year growth when I last measured it was 170%!

So may be volativity isnt the most important thing?

(My figures will be some months out of date.)

7 users thanked martin b. for this post.
Jim S on 02/06/2018(UTC), john brace on 02/06/2018(UTC), Tim D on 03/06/2018(UTC), Guest on 03/06/2018(UTC), Guest on 03/06/2018(UTC), Road-Man on 03/06/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 04/06/2018(UTC)
Peter59
Posted: 29 April 2018 06:49:38(UTC)
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It`s 25% Fixed Interest so not a great place to be with prospective Rate rises. These so called "defensive" trusts are imho a wasted opportunity. You can easily do the asset allocation yourself and save the 1% OGC.
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Keith Cobby on 29/04/2018(UTC)
Ludditeme
Posted: 02 June 2018 08:35:44(UTC)
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Re Citywire’s Ian Cowie safe havens article this week; I don’t know if there is a huge delay for pre-moderation, but my comment of a significant loss with PNL over the last year seems to have disappeared. Odd that.


Trudy Scrumptious
Posted: 02 June 2018 08:44:27(UTC)
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Ludditeme;63283 wrote:
Re Citywire’s Ian Cowie safe havens article this week; I don’t know if there is a huge delay for pre-moderation, but my comment of a significant loss with PNL over the last year seems to have disappeared. Odd that.



Is there a link for that Ian Cowie article....I can't find it.
Apostate
Posted: 02 June 2018 08:55:07(UTC)
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I have never seen the point of these "Wealth Preservation" trusts - paying 1%+ to hold a lot of my cash - no thanks I'll just DIY Harry Browne's permanent portfolio if I want to do that.

They must be worried the credit crunch is going to drop off 10 year charts soon and it won't look good for them. Kneeling and praying for market crash ASAP.
2 users thanked Apostate for this post.
satish mittal on 03/06/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 04/06/2018(UTC)
Ludditeme
Posted: 02 June 2018 09:15:16(UTC)
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1 user thanked Ludditeme for this post.
Trudy Scrumptious on 04/06/2018(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 02 June 2018 10:39:15(UTC)
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<bogus post deleted>
Ludditeme
Posted: 02 June 2018 11:31:14(UTC)
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Tim D;63289 wrote:
<bogus post deleted>


<Doesn’t fit the narrative>
mark spurrier
Posted: 03 June 2018 08:19:46(UTC)
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I am deeply unconvinced by these funds.

They don't do a lot on the upside and, still fall with the bad time. The opportunity cost of holding them is really high.

The second thing is that markets fall and recover so does it really matter in the long term?

If you want to have a go, split your $$ in to pots a long fund and short 50% each. If you are bullish, have both pots long. If you are less positive hold long/short so you should stay level.


It is pretty easy to set up a portfolio that is

Global stocks
Global short term bonds STRATEGIC - I would suggest
Commodities
precious metals
Alternatives

If you have the urge but...... in this world of high positive correlations I am not convinced it is worth the effort

I have nothing against being bearish but I am not convinced that permabears have been proved wrong in the long term.the numbers do not lie. i do hold long trusts like CTY that are also more defensively positioned but overall.......i don't know what is best. If I needed my $$$ tomorrow I would be in cash but I don't so I will ride it out and take the rough with the smooth.

I do use the income generated from some of my investments to but strategic bond funds to give me a saleable cushion should I need money in a hurry and don't want to liquidate at the "wrong" time.


4 users thanked mark spurrier for this post.
Keith Cobby on 03/06/2018(UTC), Ludditeme on 03/06/2018(UTC), Guest on 03/06/2018(UTC), Peter59 on 04/06/2018(UTC)
Mark Johnston
Posted: 03 June 2018 09:42:45(UTC)
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mark spurrier;63300 wrote:
I am deeply unconvinced by these funds.

They don't do a lot on the upside and, still fall with the bad time. The opportunity cost of holding them is really high.

The second thing is that markets fall and recover so does it really matter in the long term?

If you want to have a go, split your $$ in to pots a long fund and short 50% each. If you are bullish, have both pots long. If you are less positive hold long/short so you should stay level.


It is pretty easy to set up a portfolio that is

Global stocks
Global short term bonds STRATEGIC - I would suggest
Commodities
precious metals
Alternatives

If you have the urge but...... in this world of high positive correlations I am not convinced it is worth the effort

I have nothing against being bearish but I am not convinced that permabears have been proved wrong in the long term.the numbers do not lie. i do hold long trusts like CTY that are also more defensively positioned but overall.......i don't know what is best. If I needed my $$$ tomorrow I would be in cash but I don't so I will ride it out and take the rough with the smooth.

I do use the income generated from some of my investments to but strategic bond funds to give me a saleable cushion should I need money in a hurry and don't want to liquidate at the "wrong" time.






Couldn't agree more

Just as well keeping a safe haven of cash
1 user thanked Mark Johnston for this post.
dlp6666 on 04/06/2018(UTC)
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