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PNL
Ludditeme
Posted: 27 April 2018 07:22:51(UTC)
#1

Joined: 14/11/2016(UTC)
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Mantra change required?

"Protect and increase wealth in that order..."

Apologies, it's Friday and I should cheer up but it's not doing what it says on the tin!
3 users thanked Ludditeme for this post.
Fell Walker on 27/04/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 27/04/2018(UTC), Myfyr Madoc-Jones on 28/04/2018(UTC)
Fell Walker
Posted: 27 April 2018 07:36:09(UTC)
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I was just looking at Trojan fund on a chart selection I have saved on Trustnet and wondering how a fund with capital preservation as it's key feature can be -3% over a year that's just had a small wobble. I'm glad I sold out at the start of the year.

They are often quoted for their performance during 2008 but are all corrections and crashes going to have the same fundamentals? The only low volatility specific fund I still have is Henderson UK Absolute Return.
1 user thanked Fell Walker for this post.
Ludditeme on 27/04/2018(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 27 April 2018 08:14:53(UTC)
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Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
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Always worth looking at the underlying holdings, asking whether the investor would choose to hold direct?
In 2008 Ian Rushbrook was in charge, but with his sad death performance cannot be expected to continue seamlessly.
https://www.scotsman.com...ian-rushbrook-1-1136880

We might however see more downside protection with a serious Stocks' set-back.
It isn't easy to build a defensive portfolio with the options available today, as pretty much everything fully priced.

Could any of us do any better?
If so; that DIY choice always remains open.
2 users thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
Tim D on 27/04/2018(UTC), Ludditeme on 27/04/2018(UTC)
Ludditeme
Posted: 27 April 2018 11:33:58(UTC)
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Thanks. With respect to doing better - I would have been better served by holding more cash and accepted the hit with inflation.

I'm looking at a 6.5% drop should I sell (which I won't).



Keith Cobby
Posted: 27 April 2018 17:33:15(UTC)
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The problem with PNL and the other perma-bears is that in good times you don't make any money and in bad times you also lose money.
martin b.
Posted: 28 April 2018 22:23:15(UTC)
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Hi

I looked into this a few months ago

PNL has very low volativity (48) it had recovered from the 2008 hit within 2 years but it has only grown 9% in 5 years.

So I wondered if there were other low volatile, quick recovering but better growth ITs. This led me to the following list:-

EPIC - Volativity (lowest is best) - yrs to recover from 2008 crash - 5yr growth

PNL -48 - 2yrs - 9%
MWY - 68 - 2ys - 46%
3in - 86 - 2.25yrs - 57%
RCP - 92 - 2.3yrs - 53%
BTEM- 85 - 2.5 yrs - 37%
WTAN- 89 - 2.5yrs - 77%

Of course the past is no predictor of the future etc etc but to me this shows that while PNL easily has the lowest volativity there are other ITs that recovered from the crash just as quickly as PNL but have gone on to have much better growth. Of these 3in also has the benefit of a 3.8% yield although it has suffered recently. WTAN and RCP stand out for me.

It seems to me that all companies are at risk of losing money during a crash but so long as they bounce back quickly I am not that worried. Investing is for the long term. It's also worth noting that SMT which is a much more volatile trust had also recovered from the '08 crash within 3.5 yrs and its 5 year growth when I last measured it was 170%!

So may be volativity isnt the most important thing?

(My figures will be some months out of date.)

Peter59
Posted: 29 April 2018 06:49:38(UTC)
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Joined: 06/10/2015(UTC)
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It`s 25% Fixed Interest so not a great place to be with prospective Rate rises. These so called "defensive" trusts are imho a wasted opportunity. You can easily do the asset allocation yourself and save the 1% OGC.
1 user thanked Peter59 for this post.
Keith Cobby on 29/04/2018(UTC)
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