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Best Stocks for Trade War
Dian
Posted: 23 March 2018 10:42:54(UTC)
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In my view there are no winners in trade war. However they could create some opportunity as well. These tariffs are likely to push up costs for some companies. On the other hand companies in some sectors could benefit. I expect following scenarios and hoping to do further study. Highly appreciate your valuable thoughts. Can there be trading opening for UK?

The winners and the losers of a potential trade war

Winners

Individual stocks of companies protected by tariffs
Individual companies outside China and the USA
Some companies in the USA in the long run
Some trading opportunities for South American, Asian pacific nations
Some Agriculture and Animal production companies in China
Consumer staples, utilities and health care, conversely, could do relatively well.

Losers


Aussie & Loonie
Risk-sensitive commodities, like oil
Japan or cyclical stocks
Selected USA export companies (According to reciprocal planned tariffs on $3 billion of imports from the U.S)
Some Chinese export companies
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s webster on 23/03/2018(UTC)
AJW
Posted: 23 March 2018 12:14:55(UTC)
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How would the Chinese agricultural and animal companies benefit in particular?

I read that the EU might be exempt on the steel side of things, so I guess regions without tariffs imposed on them might get a boost?

Not too clued up on trade war economics so look forward to responses on this thread.
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Dian on 23/03/2018(UTC)
Jim S
Posted: 23 March 2018 13:10:15(UTC)
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Maybe Brazil? They might get more agricutural exports (like Soya) into China, and it seems like trade with the US might be largely unaffected. Brazil is one of those countries with temporary waiver on the US steel & aluminium tariff.

Also I'm wondering if trade spats with US will push EU, Japan, ASEAN, China, & TransPP countries a bit closer together. Most -ve impact might be on US inflationary pressure, tax cuts mean more money for consumer spending but prices and uncertainty would go up.

If Chinese funds drop a lot, maybe thats a good point to invest in Chinese consumer-themed funds.

The recent economic agreement among most African countries (but excluding Nigeria among others) is also interesting, trade between African countries has a lot of potential to grow from a small base.

I'm trying to look at recent market drops as a positive, the annual CGT allowance for investment changes in the new tax year will go that bit further, & hopefully there will be some bargains around for ISA purchases.


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Dian on 23/03/2018(UTC)
Dian
Posted: 23 March 2018 21:35:26(UTC)
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AJW;59212 wrote:
How would the Chinese agricultural and animal companies benefit in particular?

I read that the EU might be exempt on the steel side of things, so I guess regions without tariffs imposed on them might get a boost?

Not too clued up on trade war economics so look forward to responses on this thread.


There was a great demand for Seed producers and animal breeders in mainland China Yesterday. According to Zhang Gang, Central China Securities analyst in Shanghai, China’s reciprocal tariffs on the U.S. fruits, nuts and some meat will make imports less competitive in the domestic market. Seed producers Gansu Dunhuang, Hefei Fengle Seeds and farm operator Hunan New Wellful all hit the 10 percent daily limit increase yesterday. Shandong Denghai Seeds, Heilongjiang Agriculture Company, Muyuan Foodstuff Company also advanced. In the meantime Analysts are divided on the AUD. We will have to do our own study on the trade war to find out winners in global markets.
Pensioner
Posted: 23 March 2018 22:04:39(UTC)
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Try Tobacco: BAT,IMB both at low price just now and being addictive will be bought in any market turmoil. Hotels: IHG looks good value. But on all 3 stocks wait for the dust to settle, as we are now in bear market territory. DJI down over 400 tonight, with what looks a further rout next week.
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