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philip gosling
Posted: 10 February 2018 10:25:24(UTC)
#21

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Timing is difficult or we would all be millionaires but with the Footsie nearing 7000 for sure charts will forecast it will be breached in near future - so maybe those with cash should wait before buying. Only a couple of years ago it was 5550 so Time in the market is well worth it whereas if you sell now you could be relying on interest rates rising rapidly (unlikely) to give a real return above inflation of around 3%.
sandid3
Posted: 10 February 2018 10:46:43(UTC)
#22

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'Markets go up by the stairs and down by the elevator' is the well-worn phrase. For anyone who wants to buy and sell for the fun of it and to learn by experience then I think the only realistic way to develop a system is to learn Technical Analysis and use desktop charting software.

The best way to learn anything is from your own mistakes (so long as they are not fatal mistakes). But at least go about it in a systematic way.

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gillyann on 11/02/2018(UTC)
Cameron Jake
Posted: 10 February 2018 12:34:14(UTC)
#23

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Great read here, marginally soothing

Very sorry to read OP concerns and I empathise and started my own thread as my own are shocking too.

Dave Kempton
Posted: 11 February 2018 13:44:28(UTC)
#24

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If you have been investing for a couple of years or more then why are you all moaning about the downturn over the last couple of weeks. Were you moaning when, for the last few years, stocks just kept rising and rising? No, I thought not. And have you lost anything yet? Only if you have panicked and sold.
The stocks that drop the most at the moment will almost certainly be the ones that will rise the most when everything recovers.
In 2008 the financial crash cale. The value of my holding went down by about 40%. I didn't realise the losses by selling. Why would anyone, apart from Gordon Brown, sell assets when the value is low?!
18 months later the stocks had totally recovered. There is a lesson there!
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mc2
Posted: 11 February 2018 16:43:48(UTC)
#26

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...so we are told over and over buy low and sell high.... but where would you get the cash to do that is you don't sell?.... Because funny enough you need the money to buy when the market is low, so you have to sell low to (hopefully) buy low?... And it's all right to say you got to have money stashed away to buy the dips... But if you have the money stashed away you would have had that money fruitlessly stashed away fruitlessly for 8 years... It looks to me you EITHER just buy and forget OR gamble to time the market.
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halfinchnut on 12/02/2018(UTC)
Keith Cobby
Posted: 11 February 2018 16:57:25(UTC)
#28

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Anyone who is depressed by recent market activity shouldn't be in the markets.
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kWIKSAVE
Posted: 11 February 2018 17:32:46(UTC)
#30

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A rising tide lifts all boats while an ebbing tide leaves them all stuck in zee mud !

Yes the last few days has not been pretty .....pretty awful ..... but those of us old hacks saw it in 1987 and 2001 to know it's nothing new and we have not been pushed towards Carey Street.

Keep spare cash of 6 month's net income always for emergencies and the dividends will help pay for the golf sub and odd overseas jaunt.

Contrasting the performance of my unit trusts/oeics with shares during the last 2 years, the collectives have done much better generally which says a lot for my stockpicking !

Apart from the shares mentioned in another thread, Evenlode Global Income, Threadneedle Europe Select and Lindsell Train Japanese are ones I will consider going with.
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GeneralZod on 11/02/2018(UTC), gillyann on 12/02/2018(UTC)
GeneralZod
Posted: 11 February 2018 18:19:29(UTC)
#31

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Great response KwikSave but I confess to having look up 'Carey Steet' - pretty certain it wasn't a subtle reference to Ace Ventura but just needed to be certain!
eyeboy
Posted: 11 February 2018 18:51:41(UTC)
#29

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Keith Cobby;56969 wrote:
Anyone who is depressed by recent market activity shouldn't be in the markets.


I completely agree. I've been looking forward to this for a couple of years. I'd be perfectly happy with another 15% drop. Just ride it out. Never invest money you can't afford to lock away for a decent length of time.

I love market falls. It means my regular investments buy me more units (mainly in a global index tracker).

Don't sell unless you need to, or think you could do better with your capital elsewhere. In my opinion, this thinking should apply whatever the markets are doing. What's happening now is normal. Markets go up, they drop back and then they go up again - usually by more than they fell. In fact, corrections (and bear markets) are healthy - markets that go up uncontrollably form bubbles that burst horribly - see Tech bubble in 2001.
2 users thanked eyeboy for this post.
laang lee on 12/02/2018(UTC), Alan M on 15/02/2018(UTC)
philip gosling
Posted: 11 February 2018 21:46:26(UTC)
#27

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mc2;56968 wrote:
...so we are told over and over buy low and sell high.... but where would you get the cash to do that is you don't sell?.... Because funny enough you need the money to buy when the market is low, so you have to sell low to (hopefully) buy low?... And it's all right to say you got to have money stashed away to buy the dips... But if you have the money stashed away you would have had that money fruitlessly stashed away fruitlessly for 8 years... It looks to me you EITHER just buy and forget OR gamble to time the market.



Be a half Full not half Empty person

You always need to keep 6-12 months cash for a new boiler, a " new "car etc and don't put 100 % into the stock market in shares you'll have 5-10% at any age in Premium bonds or the bank/building society/cash . If markets go down by all means look again at your holdings but the cushion you have should enable you to "ride" out a year or two of low returns. I mean 2 % in the bank with 3% inflation is bad for you even in the short term. Most people now will live to 80 so most of us (even me as an oldie) have time to ride out a major correction never mind a 10%+ drop.
4 users thanked philip gosling for this post.
King Lodos on 11/02/2018(UTC), North Star on 12/02/2018(UTC), laang lee on 12/02/2018(UTC), Alan M on 15/02/2018(UTC)
Colin Deakins
Posted: 11 February 2018 21:57:03(UTC)
#32

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Opinions on my simple question:

My holding of Woodford Equity Inc now showing a 10% loss; sell immediately and buy
"Evenlode Global Income, Threadneedle Europe Select and Lindsell Train Japanese are ones I will consider going with." or Jupiter India or buy and forget Vanguard 80% Equity?

As always maybe a bit late in the day...................
Mickey
Posted: 11 February 2018 22:35:32(UTC)
#25

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Dave Kempton;56955 wrote:
If you have been investing for a couple of years or more then why are you all moaning about the downturn over the last couple of weeks. Were you moaning when, for the last few years, stocks just kept rising and rising? No, I thought not. And have you lost anything yet? Only if you have panicked and sold.
The stocks that drop the most at the moment will almost certainly be the ones that will rise the most when everything recovers.
In 2008 the financial crash cale. The value of my holding went down by about 40%. I didn't realise the losses by selling. Why would anyone, apart from Gordon Brown, sell assets when the value is low?!
18 months later the stocks had totally recovered. There is a lesson there!


Strange I haven't seen much if any moaning on here. Just a few folk wondering what to do,
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laang lee on 12/02/2018(UTC)
GeneralZod
Posted: 11 February 2018 23:43:07(UTC)
#35

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If Vanguard 2045 had a fight with Vanguard Life Strategy 80, who would win?
Ark Welder
Posted: 12 February 2018 00:26:11(UTC)
#36

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Vanguard.....
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J Thomas on 12/02/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 12/02/2018(UTC), Tim D on 12/02/2018(UTC), Alan M on 15/02/2018(UTC)
King Lodos
Posted: 12 February 2018 08:48:28(UTC)
#33

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Colin Deakins;56992 wrote:
Opinions on my simple question:

My holding of Woodford Equity Inc now showing a 10% loss; sell immediately and buy
"Evenlode Global Income, Threadneedle Europe Select and Lindsell Train Japanese are ones I will consider going with." or Jupiter India or buy and forget Vanguard 80% Equity?

As always maybe a bit late in the day...................


It's never too late to change course. (Obviously best not to make a habit of it .. It's probably best to either change very quickly, or buy things you won't need to change – e.g. an index)

I've felt for a long time the Equity Income sector would run into problems, as valuations have driven dividends down to the point managers have to take unnecessary risk and bet on more cyclical sectors.

I'd say unless there's a really good reason – or it forms part of a very carefully thought out long term plan – there's no point taking a punt on a niche (like India, Japan or Europe) .. it just gives you more reasons to weigh up changing course again at some point .. I think Vanguard would solve the big problem: you'd never have to change it .. It could compound returns for you for decades .. Or obviously I like the Fundsmith and Lindsell Train Global funds too – and again, even if they underperform, the approach is so sensible, I don't think you'd have to consider switching out


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philip gosling on 12/02/2018(UTC), Keith Cobby on 12/02/2018(UTC), Colin Deakins on 12/02/2018(UTC), Alan M on 15/02/2018(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 12 February 2018 09:53:45(UTC)
#34

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Colin Deakins;56992 wrote:
Opinions on my simple question:

My holding of Woodford Equity Inc now showing a 10% loss; sell immediately and buy
"Evenlode Global Income, Threadneedle Europe Select and Lindsell Train Japanese are ones I will consider going with." or Jupiter India or buy and forget Vanguard 80% Equity?

As always maybe a bit late in the day...................


If it were me I'd be asking whether I'd be buying the Woodford fund now if I didn't already own it. If the answer is no, then I'd switch...

Could be an opportunity to switch to an IT on a discount... If you agree with many analysts that value shares are likely to perform best from here, TMPL or LWI could be worth a look. For non-UK, MYI is a solid global income IT, or Artemis Global Growth (OEIC) which is overweight Europe and underweight US, and has about 10% in Japan.
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TJL
Posted: 12 February 2018 12:01:34(UTC)
#37

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I've found in the past that I can agonise over the 'shall I sell' decision and to a lesser degree 'where shall I reinvest,' but then once the decision is (eventually) made and the deed is actually done, it's a lovely feeling of relief and I sometimes end of wondering why it took me so long.
So good luck, I know how you might be feeling.
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Bestmate
Posted: 12 February 2018 18:32:23(UTC)
#38

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Look, the markets have gone down around 10-11%. My portfolio has gone down just a little over 5%. Therefore, I am reasonably pleased. Why? Because I invest by the following adage, (I think another one of the mighty WB's sayings) -

"You do NOT need to out perform rising markets, but you DO need to loose less in falling markets."

Sit tight, bear the above in mind, and invest accordingly. Nothing is lost until you sell.
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Alan M on 15/02/2018(UTC)
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