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Performance tables after inflation taken out
Never Twice Fooled
Posted: 05 January 2018 12:52:12(UTC)
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It seems there are lots of sites with performance tables on 1 month 3 month 1 year 5 year performance etc.

However I haven't yet found one which takes out inflation to give the REAL return over a period of time.

Likewise there doesnt seem to be any site which incorporates the dividends paid by a company.

How can I easily compare trusts with varying dividends and capital growth over various periods of time.

Is it all a way to keep us in the dark?

Many thanks.
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gillyann on 07/01/2018(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 05 January 2018 13:04:21(UTC)
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Never Twice Fooled;55030 wrote:
Likewise there doesnt seem to be any site which incorporates the dividends paid by a company.How can I easily compare trusts with varying dividends and capital growth over various periods of time.


Don't know about the inflation/real returns aspect, but Trustnet's charting tools https://www2.trustnet.com/Tools/Charting.aspx do give you the option of displaying with or without income reinvested ("chart basis" button). It does seem to have data on individual equities (not used that much myself; don't know how extensive it is). Main thing which keeps me coming back there is the data for many things goes back to the 90s.

Actually I see trustnet's list of chartable "indices" includes things like "UK Consumer Price", "UK Retail Price" and a range of "UK Consumer Price + 1-5%" so you can always add that to a chart for a comparison.
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Never Twice Fooled on 05/01/2018(UTC)
Stephen B.
Posted: 07 January 2018 11:53:47(UTC)
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Having a separate RPI chart isn't all that helpful, you can't easily do the adjustment in your head. For the last couple of decades inflation has been fairly low and stable so you can more or less just subtract 2-3% from the annualised returns to get the real figure, but for longer periods it's a different matter - when you see statistics about what £1000 invested in the 1970s would be worth now you should remember that houses only cost a few thousand back then! For regular savings it's even worse, assumptions like £50 a month for 40 years make no sense whatever because no-one would in practice have saved like that, it would have been much smaller in the early years which would make the final sum a lot smaller too.
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Tim D on 07/01/2018(UTC)
Never Twice Fooled
Posted: 07 January 2018 13:52:31(UTC)
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Stephen my concern as well.

All the details on trusts and funds need to be taken with large dose of salt.

Is there nowhere that shows the real return by trusts/Funds?
Tim D
Posted: 07 January 2018 16:41:03(UTC)
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I think the problem would be finding anything with data on trusts back to the 1970s, if that's how far back you want to go.

This is the sort of thing I had in mind with trustnet:

investments vs cpi plus

Which at least demonstrates a couple of indices have done between CPI+4% and CPI+5% (and in F&C's case, significantly better recently). Plot is total return (ie divis reinvested). It also makes the point that the depths of the drawdowns have erased all real gains a couple of times. Of course how this sort of thing looks tends to be a bit dependent on the starting date; in this case it's just the furthest back trustnet could plot for these things. If I just plot FTSE100 it'll go back to 86, but as soon as I add CPI it'll only go back to 88. Adding any actual investment usually means it can't go earlier than the mid-90s.
3 users thanked Tim D for this post.
Harry Trout on 07/01/2018(UTC), Sara G on 07/01/2018(UTC), North Star on 07/01/2018(UTC)
Stephen B.
Posted: 07 January 2018 17:59:12(UTC)
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The trouble is that you're eye doesn't interpret that kind of graph well. Firstly it tends to just look at the end points and miss what may be a different story part way through, e.e. hardly noticing the two big falls. Secondly what you see is the difference between the lines when what you should look at is the ratio - that would at least somewhat be fixed by using a log scale. Indeed you can see that clearly by considering your lines C and F, you're inclined to conclude that F is doing progressively better when in fact by construction the advantage is always the same.
Tim D
Posted: 07 January 2018 21:09:13(UTC)
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OK I know what you mean; it just doesn't work that well.

Looking at charts of long-term performance, I've noticed the the longer the timescale gets (or perhaps more the larger the accumulated gains get), the more I want a log scale on the vertical asix, because events which might have been say a 50%-down at the time but are earlier on in the sequence look insignificant compared to the same scale of event later on, despite the fact they're basically the same thing happening.

The only (free) site I know with an option for log-scale charts is markets.ft.com (but it doesn't always choose the range well, and won't let you do comparisons on a log scale. Seems to have data for most trusts back to 1988.)

Going back to the "real returns" thing... I note www.portfoliovisualizer.com seems to have some inflation data (presumably USA figures) and displays an "Inflation" and "Inflation Adjusted Return" in it's "Portfolio Analysis Results"; not looked into it any deeper. Not really what you're looking for though, when it only deals with broad asset classes.
Stephen B.
Posted: 07 January 2018 21:30:37(UTC)
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Slightly tangentially, it's interesting to look at Nationwide's inflation-adjusted house price index, it gives a rather different impression to what you get from the nominal values. Basically from 1975 (their start point) to the late 90s the real house price remained at around £100k aside from a spike around 1988, it then doubled in about 5 years and has been flat since - around £200k now as it was in 2004.

https://www.nationwide.c...justed-for-inflation.xls
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Tim D on 07/01/2018(UTC)
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