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Zod speaks
GeneralZod
Posted: 20 December 2017 12:29:59(UTC)
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Hello. I know you all love to know how ole' General Zod is getting on so I have an update.

The last time we spoke, I'd compressed my portfolio into, basically, five holdings with a vast majority in Vanguard Life 80 and Target 2045 (under your advice on here). They've both averaged at around 5% since then which isn't bad at all. Meanwhile, the £8500 I put into Schroder Brazil/India/Russia (which several people ridiculed me for) has more than doubled Vanguard's performance returning me nearly a grand at just shy of 12% (lovely). Vanguard's Emerging Markets has also been ok at 5.81%. I did also put a grand and a half in a Schroder Health fund and it's made me about £2.50 so I've decided to do this: I'm shifting the cash into Baillie Gifford Japan and am also going to chuck in a bit more in that direction early next year. So, I'll hold 2 Vanguards, Ballie Japan, Vanguard Emerging and retain my investment in Russia/India Schroder. Sound good? Why Japan? Well, I've done some reading and there's clearly a lot of confidence out there about it....

However, if any of you have any hot tips for the Zodster, you come let me know. What are people's opinions of Woodford right now? Is he a has-been? Any get-rich-quick funds I should be hearing about that invest in things like Russian copper mines? I'm always up for ideas....

By the by, the new Fidelity software is amazing. So easy to use and it tells you in straightforward ways exactly what things are performing. For instance, I know now that as of March 2018 (few months time...), I've been investing for three years and have "made" a few dollars short of £7000 having invested about £38000, all inside an ISA wrap. Is that a good performance? Yes, no?

Schroder Brazil - 11.8% up (£973);
Vanguard Emerging 5.81% (£397);
Vanguard Life 80 5.30% up (£1140);
Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 5.34% (£266)

I hope everyone is doing very well and you're all going to have a great Christmas and new year.
3 users thanked GeneralZod for this post.
laang lee on 21/12/2017(UTC), RSJ on 25/12/2017(UTC), Guest on 01/01/2018(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 20 December 2017 14:10:16(UTC)
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Nice to see you back Zod (but where's all the the "now bow down before Zod" stuff... has someone taught you some humility at last???).

Just to address this bit..

GeneralZod;54432 wrote:
By the by, the new Fidelity software is amazing. So easy to use and it tells you in straightforward ways exactly what things are performing. For instance, I know now that as of March 2018 (few months time...), I've been investing for three years and have "made" a few dollars short of £7000 having invested about £38000, all inside an ISA wrap. Is that a good performance? Yes, no?


If you'd started with a £38000 lump sum 3 years ago, added nothing more, and you now had £7000 more (£45000), then that'd be a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of about 5.8%. Better than you'll find in any deposit account but seems poor when you bear in mind VLS80's CAGR is 12% over the last 3 years (according to trustnet). However, the devil is in the details of exactly when you invested how much. If you invested £3000 3 years ago, £10000 two years ago and £25000 1 year ago and now you had £45000... then you'd have achieved a CAGR of about 12.4%; much more respectable. So, it's impossible to say whether it's good performance or not without knowing more about what was invested when.

Don't know about hot tips... I'm happy to stick with my existing level of Japan overweight. Not adding more though. The bold contrarian bet these days is probably the UK... Woody's recent video appearance linked from this thread is worth a watch (and I note he echoes Big Boy's sentiments about BLND). Feel bullish about brexit?
Glyn Ingram
Posted: 20 December 2017 14:21:57(UTC)
#3

Joined: 08/10/2017(UTC)
Posts: 1

Tim,

Thanks for response. Yes, I know what you mean: 3 years ago, I'd invested around £10,000 and have added and so on since then so my performance is actually rather a lot better than the percentage I gave (or the case could be made to reflect that). During this time, I've only had dollar in, say, Vanguard's 80 fund for about 4 months. However, a fair amount of that "up" is through Alan's Gold Fund 'pointer' and, of course, I backed a few losers. That said, those were during the days when I had my money is as many as 15 different funds. I'm now in far less. :)

Now...Kneel before Zod.

Z

King Lodos
Posted: 20 December 2017 14:37:32(UTC)
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Joined: 05/01/2016(UTC)
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If you remember the Diary of a Dumb Investor articles – I always found the portfolio chaotic and frustrating .. But when markets are only going up, anything you do is going to make money.

And the reason this is dangerous is you start to think you're a good investor, and it reinforces the thinking that led you to those decisions – e.g. having half your portfolio in Vietnamese uranium miners.

And when things do turn, you're in a completely alien environment – where anything you do loses you money, and any decision you make makes things worse .. And so the reason I'd recommend things like Vanguard is not for trading, but so you can actually commit a lot of capital, not monitor your performance, and jump in and out, and wind up with a decent-sized investment eventually

1 user thanked King Lodos for this post.
gillyann on 24/12/2017(UTC)
Catch The Pigeon
Posted: 20 December 2017 15:57:01(UTC)
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You need to invest for the long term.

The best thing you can do is leave your portfolio alone. Don't make changes every few months just because a fund has under-performed.
1 user thanked Catch The Pigeon for this post.
gillyann on 24/12/2017(UTC)
Mickey
Posted: 20 December 2017 16:42:04(UTC)
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You're having a laugh methinks. Seems a pretty poor return over 3 years with what you are holding. Having said that, the Vanguard funds are not having the best of years, VLS 80 up about 12% whilst Global Growth IT's up an average of 28% in 12 months or thereabouts. I imagine that you are not 100% invested over the time period.
jvl
Posted: 20 December 2017 17:25:21(UTC)
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GeneralZod;54432 wrote:
...Meanwhile, the £8500 I put into Schroder Brazil/India/Russia (which several people ridiculed me for)...


Who ridiculed you for that? (I can't keep track of all the stuff we've ridiculed you for)
Jay Mi
Posted: 20 December 2017 18:10:25(UTC)
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Joined: 11/03/2017(UTC)
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You seem impatient.
You seemed impatient on you last posts as well.
Your next post, i'll probably be thinking the same.

There are plenty of funds that have gone up way more than 18% over 3 years.
If you're happy with 18% over three yers compared to just having cash then it's fine if it works for you.

Not everything goes up all at the same time.

Some will go sideways then go upwards. Do you miss these upward periods by changing your investments too often.

What would you do if everything went down together?

Do you add more money or was it a singly lump sum investment?
1 user thanked Jay Mi for this post.
gillyann on 24/12/2017(UTC)
S_M
Posted: 20 December 2017 18:12:56(UTC)
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GeneralZod;54432 wrote:
Hello. I know you all love to know how ole' General Zod is getting on so I have an update.

The last time we spoke, I'd compressed my portfolio into, basically, five holdings with a vast majority in Vanguard Life 80 and Target 2045 (under your advice on here). They've both averaged at around 5% since then which isn't bad at all. Meanwhile, the £8500 I put into Schroder Brazil/India/Russia (which several people ridiculed me for) has more than doubled Vanguard's performance returning me nearly a grand at just shy of 12% (lovely). Vanguard's Emerging Markets has also been ok at 5.81%. I did also put a grand and a half in a Schroder Health fund and it's made me about £2.50 so I've decided to do this: I'm shifting the cash into Baillie Gifford Japan and am also going to chuck in a bit more in that direction early next year. So, I'll hold 2 Vanguards, Ballie Japan, Vanguard Emerging and retain my investment in Russia/India Schroder. Sound good? Why Japan? Well, I've done some reading and there's clearly a lot of confidence out there about it....

However, if any of you have any hot tips for the Zodster, you come let me know. What are people's opinions of Woodford right now? Is he a has-been? Any get-rich-quick funds I should be hearing about that invest in things like Russian copper mines? I'm always up for ideas....

By the by, the new Fidelity software is amazing. So easy to use and it tells you in straightforward ways exactly what things are performing. For instance, I know now that as of March 2018 (few months time...), I've been investing for three years and have "made" a few dollars short of £7000 having invested about £38000, all inside an ISA wrap. Is that a good performance? Yes, no?

Schroder Brazil - 11.8% up (£973);
Vanguard Emerging 5.81% (£397);
Vanguard Life 80 5.30% up (£1140);
Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 5.34% (£266)

I hope everyone is doing very well and you're all going to have a great Christmas and new year.


Ohh dear, I've been invested in Japan since just after the earthquake/tsunami. Perhaps it's time to get out. ;).
1 user thanked S_M for this post.
gillyann on 24/12/2017(UTC)
Jay Mi
Posted: 20 December 2017 18:18:13(UTC)
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GeneralZod;54432 wrote:


However, if any of you have any hot tips for the Zodster, you come let me know. What are people's opinions of Woodford right now?


Recent performance... One disaster to another. Do i think this will continue, probably not, but nobody is perfect and everyone has bad patches.

3 year performance - better than your three year performance.
Alan Selwood
Posted: 20 December 2017 21:07:27(UTC)
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The most volatile investments tend to go up (and down) the most - that's why they get high scores on Trustnet's volatility rankings.

It is no surprise that General Zod's Schroder Brazil was top and the Emerging Markets holding 2nd. They will in all probability be the worst and 2nd worse performers in any down patch. The key is whether you can buy at or near the bottom and sell at or near the top of each cycle for the various sectors you invest in. This is the hard part!

You also have to take into account that one aspect of successful investing is surviving to invest another day - so ultra-large gambles that could wipe you out if they go wrong are usually not as successful for the majority of investors as more conservative ones that survive through thick and thin.

Meanwhile, if you are a really, really, really good stock picker, and your very existence does not depend on your investment success if you do get it wrong, you may find that the key to great investment results is to hold about 5 to 10 individual shares and make sure you know you are buying only survivors and doing so at bargain basement prices (for example, a company whose market cap is less than the cash it holds, with the other assets thrown in for nothing and not of a type that will cost any money to hold within the company). If you are a brilliant stock picker, you will make a mint - but well over 95% of people (including most fund managers) are not astute enough to follow this path.
4 users thanked Alan Selwood for this post.
Peter59 on 20/12/2017(UTC), laang lee on 21/12/2017(UTC), Mickey on 21/12/2017(UTC), Tim D on 21/12/2017(UTC)
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