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Tyrion Lannister
Posted: 14 February 2018 23:15:46(UTC)

Joined: 03/03/2017(UTC)
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Fell Walker;57173 wrote:
It'd be interesting to see if there are large outflows from some of the capital preservation funds are over the preceding months. Maybe there needs to be a bit of a cull!


Interesting question. I see the premium on the much coveted RCP has fallen 5% over the last couple of weeks.

I own 3 bond funds and they’ve held up reasonably well during the recent wobble as has gold. Ok, they haven’t increased in price either but under the current circumstances that’s fine by me.

My portfolio at present is around 70% equities, 10% bonds, 5% gold and 15% cash. I’ve just sold my last mixed asset fund and from now will manage my own asset mix.
4 users thanked Tyrion Lannister for this post.
Micawber on 15/02/2018(UTC), Mr Helpful on 15/02/2018(UTC), Mickey on 15/02/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 15/02/2018(UTC)
MoMoney
Posted: 18 February 2018 09:39:12(UTC)

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Thinking about dropping a fairly big stake (3% of pa) into Imperial Brands for long term hold. Before I pull the trigger does anyone have a strong view? I get there are structural headwinds but there have been for decades! So not sure why it’s performed so poorly over last 2 years....

dyfed
Posted: 18 February 2018 09:50:23(UTC)

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MoMoney;57439 wrote:
Thinking about dropping a fairly big stake (3% of pa) into Imperial Brands for long term hold. Before I pull the trigger does anyone have a strong view? I get there are structural headwinds but there have been for decades! So not sure why it’s performed so poorly over last 2 years....



For me, these large brand tobacco stocks are all about vapour and ecigs. I don't know enough about the issues - investment costs, brand leadership, moats etc. So not investing at the moment, but could be the start of the tobacco stock renaissance! Would be great to have an informed comment about this. Anyone out there?
Alan Selwood
Posted: 18 February 2018 10:38:34(UTC)

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Terry Smith has dumped Imperial Brands from his Fundsmith Equity Fund.
Reason given is lack of investment merit, not an aversion on his part to owning tobacco stocks.

Despite the irrestistible urge that some people have to buy cancer sticks and new versions of them, I do wonder whether there will be a sea-change in the future.

Lots of global bodies are now ganging up on certain harmful items that people have always craved. Fossil fuels, sugar, tobacco, plastic, VW diesel engines........
3 users thanked Alan Selwood for this post.
lynne shaffer on 18/02/2018(UTC), Andrew Smith 259 on 18/02/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 19/02/2018(UTC)
Captain Slugwash
Posted: 18 February 2018 10:55:21(UTC)

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dyfed;57440 wrote:
MoMoney;57439 wrote:
Thinking about dropping a fairly big stake (3% of pa) into Imperial Brands for long term hold. Before I pull the trigger does anyone have a strong view? I get there are structural headwinds but there have been for decades! So not sure why it’s performed so poorly over last 2 years....



For me, these large brand tobacco stocks are all about vapour and ecigs. I don't know enough about the issues - investment costs, brand leadership, moats etc. So not investing at the moment, but could be the start of the tobacco stock renaissance! Would be great to have an informed comment about this. Anyone out there?


We sometimes view the world through Western eyes.

Tobacco is still huge in the rest of the world, with more smokers than at any time previously.
Heat-not-burn tobacco is the next big thing, but either way it will take the rest of the world 20 years to reach Western attitudes to tobacco.

I am currently 3.7% IMB and 9.1% tobacco in general. Would happily go to 15%
These sort of unpopular industries are good value long term earners.

Having 24% of the portfolio in healthcare helps me sleep at night ;)
Alan Selwood
Posted: 18 February 2018 11:08:27(UTC)

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Which almost seems like shorting tobacco and going long healthcare, doesn't it?
Captain Slugwash
Posted: 18 February 2018 11:13:38(UTC)

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Alan Selwood;57453 wrote:
Which almost seems like shorting tobacco and going long healthcare, doesn't it?


If 20 years is short. Most of these companies, like big oil will adapt and transform.

Altria being limited to the US is already in wine and of course a good holding in BUD.
Others have dabbled with consumer goods, and will likely do so again.
King Lodos
Posted: 18 February 2018 11:45:48(UTC)

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MoMoney;57439 wrote:
Thinking about dropping a fairly big stake (3% of pa) into Imperial Brands for long term hold. Before I pull the trigger does anyone have a strong view? I get there are structural headwinds but there have been for decades! So not sure why it’s performed so poorly over last 2 years....


Worth looking at the Altman Z-score:

https://www.gurufocus.com/term/zscore/OTCPK:IMBBF/Altman%2BZ-Score/Imperial+Brands+PLC

I don't know the particular circumstances, but at least by this classic measure there's an 80% chance of bankruptcy within two years .. Forward PE's only 9, which means there's probably quite a bit of risk priced in.


My feeling on tobacco in developing markets is they'll follow us much quicker than we expect .. China may have been 50 years behind the industrial revolution, but they well beat us to clean air
2 users thanked King Lodos for this post.
chazza on 18/02/2018(UTC), gillyann on 20/02/2018(UTC)
dyfed
Posted: 19 February 2018 11:23:31(UTC)

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Not sure I should admit this, but bought some RB.
I know we now go for discounted supermarket own-label rater than brands nowadays but I don't believe the old magic is dead, esp with a focus on health. Though all this stuff recently about particulates from home-use products did make me hesitate.....
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Sara G on 19/02/2018(UTC)
Andrew Smith 259
Posted: 19 February 2018 11:43:01(UTC)

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dyfed;57516 wrote:
Not sure I should admit this, but bought some RB.
I know we now go for discounted supermarket own-label rater than brands nowadays but I don't believe the old magic is dead, esp with a focus on health. Though all this stuff recently about particulates from home-use products did make me hesitate.....


Did you buy after the 6% fall today? Might be a good time to buy RB. I’ve always looked on RB in a similar light to Unilever, although I must admit Unilever is probably the stronger of the two, but RB is one I’m watching closely too
1 user thanked Andrew Smith 259 for this post.
dyfed on 19/02/2018(UTC)
chazza
Posted: 19 February 2018 11:43:56(UTC)

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Topped up DLG, and made a much larger purchase of ULVR ahead of the ex-dividend date.
And then I read an article on micro-beads and nano-beads that made me wonder what the liabilities of the likes of ULVR and RB might be for plastic pollution.
My self-serving consolation is that such companies - esp. ULVR - are fleet of foot and at the leading edge of innovation as well as corporate social responsibility and environmentally ethical materials-sourcing...

Still, hard to believe that human appetites do not exceed the ability of the planet to cope, even with demand for the materials for the post fossil fuel energy revolution; see
http://www.bbc.co.uk/new...s/idt-sh/deep_sea_mining
2 users thanked chazza for this post.
dyfed on 19/02/2018(UTC), Sara G on 19/02/2018(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 19 February 2018 19:07:39(UTC)

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Sold VOF this morning for a 35% gain, discount having narrowed to around 16%. Vietnam is still a compelling story, and I think it will increasingly feature in generalist Asian funds, but I'd lost a little faith in the holdings - 13.5% real estate may be a good thing but not really what I'm after long term. It's a pricey fund too with the performance fee.

Proceeds left as cash for now, but I may top up FAS and / or BT and GSK.
8 users thanked Sara G for this post.
Fell Walker on 19/02/2018(UTC), what me, worry? on 19/02/2018(UTC), dyfed on 19/02/2018(UTC), gillyann on 20/02/2018(UTC), Mickey on 20/02/2018(UTC), c brown on 20/02/2018(UTC), Vince. on 20/02/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 20/02/2018(UTC)
Alan Selwood
Posted: 19 February 2018 22:10:18(UTC)

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A good run, Sara. Nice profit.

I've held VOF in the past, but currently have VEIL. Looks a good story to me.
Hope it will continue to perform as a country. The fundamentals look pretty compelling.
4 users thanked Alan Selwood for this post.
c brown on 20/02/2018(UTC), Sara G on 20/02/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 20/02/2018(UTC), Guest on 23/02/2018(UTC)
gillyann
Posted: 20 February 2018 06:44:28(UTC)

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King Lodos;57460 wrote:
[quote=MoMoney;57439]

My feeling on tobacco in developing markets is they'll follow us much quicker than we expect .. China may have been 50 years behind the industrial revolution, but they well beat us to clean air


Asia is changing fast. Cigarettes are cheap there and many people smoke. However, many countries are now preventing people from smoking in public and have strict laws in place to reinforce this. This will impact on the number of smokers as it has done in the UK, imho. Smoking is no longer cool in the West; most young people find it disgusting. So I wonder what is the future of tobacco companies?
4 users thanked gillyann for this post.
Raj K on 20/02/2018(UTC), dyfed on 20/02/2018(UTC), Sara G on 20/02/2018(UTC), dlp6666 on 20/02/2018(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 20 February 2018 09:21:11(UTC)

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So, over the past week I've done some topping up but I haven't seen particular bargains in watchlisted stocks so have retained cash in the pfs.

Topped up MYI and FCSS and switched from EMDV to double in HFEL in Mrs M's pf.

Opened a position in WOOD (timber and forestry ETF, concentrated pf).

Topped up BRWM in two offsprings pfs with reinvested divis. Put another's own new ISA money into a start position in Fundsmith.

I haven't yet seen sufficient falls in held or watchlisted individual shares to tempt me further in. I would not be at all surprised at further and bigger wobbles as we get towards the spring. My cash is there for opportunities when I see them, that is, pricing opportunities for investments I want to hold or increase. The only place I want to increase is in my recent IHT ISA, which will have to await the new tax year's ISA allowance as it is fully invested.
8 users thanked Micawber for this post.
dyfed on 20/02/2018(UTC), Vince. on 20/02/2018(UTC), Sara G on 20/02/2018(UTC), Lemanie on 20/02/2018(UTC), IanL on 20/02/2018(UTC), gillyann on 20/02/2018(UTC), c brown on 23/02/2018(UTC), what me, worry? on 23/02/2018(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 23 February 2018 10:02:45(UTC)

Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
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Part top-sliced BRCI (Commodities Income) today.
Still fairly valued IMHO, and the tail-wind continues.

This along with HFEL, AAIF and JRS, seem to be the few pockets of value remaining on the Portfolio Risk-Side, in this otherwise fairly expensive market.

On the Portfolio so called 'Defensive-Side' topped up the questionable presence of NG. earlier this week.
This one is going to be a long haul, with maybe new price depths yet to be plunged?
2 users thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
what me, worry? on 23/02/2018(UTC), Sara G on 24/02/2018(UTC)
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