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Shetland
Posted: 14 September 2017 07:26:44(UTC)

Joined: 13/03/2015(UTC)
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Micawber;51096 wrote:
Micawber;51065 wrote:
..... and less risky IMO is JUST Group whose encouraging interims were out today. The sp has bucked today's downwards trend and is up 1.24% on the morning as I write, although the good results were not as good as the optimists hoped and clearly some are taking profits right now. I bought this on 5 May, in the expectation that it would be revalued during the year by 50-100%, other things being equal. So far it is showing me +28%. I'm not thinking of it as a long term hold, as it is in my fun pf which is not infrequently traded and which is aimed at capital growth (as it's outside my ISAs). If it gets over +50% and seems to be stalling, I'll cash it in (subject to CGT allowance limits). Or maybe if brokers start putting out notes reducing their target prices..... But for someone else it could potentially be a long term hold with income growth.


Positive Shore Capital view in today's Citywire'expert' roundup: http://citywire.co.uk/mo...ey-latest-news-list#i=5

...but the Times has it as 'avoid,' according to the news & tips roundup. Any Times subscriber fill in the detail of why?



The report says that the shares trade on a fair discount to to the embedded value figure of 221p but the share price advance sine the spring does not suggest much upside. Avoid as the shares look well up with events.

Not my words but The Times
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Micawber on 14/09/2017(UTC)
dyfed
Posted: 14 September 2017 10:29:42(UTC)

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Micawber;51096 wrote:
[

...but the Times has it as 'avoid,' according to the news & tips roundup. Any Times subscriber fill in the detail of why?



Just Group
We are promised they won’t change the name again. Just Group used to be known as JRP Group, which was created out of the April 2016 merger of Just Retirement and Partnership Assurance. The name was changed to the brand, Just, which offers bulk annuities to absolve employers from pension liabilities and retirement packages. A few months back the company was viewed as one in managed decline, or run-off, and the shares at around 120p reflected this.

Just is now firmly in growth mode. The company has written £260 million of bulk annuities since the June end of the first half of the financial year and was getting in new business in that period on margins of 8.9 per cent, against 5 per cent at the same point last year. Profits from new business in that half more than doubled to £64 million.

The cost savings from the merger are almost all through, Just has a new revolving credit facility of £200 million and the solvency capital ratio, reflecting available reserves, is comfortable at 150 per cent. The shares, unchanged at 160¾p, trade on a fair discount to the embedded value figure of 221p, the best measure of the worth of its assets. However, the share price advance since the spring does not suggest much upside.
MY ADVICE Avoid
WHY The shares look well up with events
2 users thanked dyfed for this post.
Micawber on 14/09/2017(UTC), Sara G on 14/09/2017(UTC)
chubby bunny
Posted: 14 September 2017 22:01:34(UTC)

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Micawber;51094 wrote:
Thanks. Interesting. Useful links, especially to the tournaments and earnings (where GFIN features). The other companies have esports as just a small part of their mainstream media interests, it appears. Any other pure play for investors than GFIN?


MLG ran a fantastic Counter-Strike major last year but are owned by Activision Blizzard
who hold a bunch of popular eSport franchises (Overwatch, Call of Duty, Hearthstone, Starcraft, Warcraft).

Valve Corporation, owners of the Steam games distribution platform and makers of Counter-Strike and DOTA 2, organise and sponsor the biggest DOTA 2 tournament themselves. They are worth billions but are privately owned and will be for as long as Gabe Newell is in charge.

Riot Games, the makers of League of Legends who also run the game's biggest tournament, are owned by Tencent.

PGL organise some very good events, but I cannot find much information about their Romanian parent company.

So no other obvious pure eSports plays I can think of that aren't private or already owned by larger companies.

The eSports event industry is quite crowded and Gfinity need to find a way to set themselves apart. The standard of play in their most recent Counter-Strike tournament was really not very good. Even though most of the viewership comes from YouTube and Twitch, the best teams want to play in front of a packed arena and I don't think Gfinity's converted cinemas have a high enough capacity to create that kind of atmosphere. ELeague's studio audience isn't very large and I find the viewing experience rather sterile, but they attract the best teams because of their generous prize pool.

If you are curious, ESL's New York event starts at 4pm tomorrow and will be streamed from the Barclays Center on Twitch TV, though the crowd probably won't be there until Saturday.
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Micawber on 14/09/2017(UTC)
Jeff Liddiard
Posted: 15 September 2017 08:20:02(UTC)

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dyfed;51102 wrote:
Micawber;51096 wrote:
[

...but the Times has it as 'avoid,' according to the news & tips roundup. Any Times subscriber fill in the detail of why?



Just Group
We are promised they won’t change the name again. Just Group used to be known as JRP Group, which was created out of the April 2016 merger of Just Retirement and Partnership Assurance. The name was changed to the brand, Just, which offers bulk annuities to absolve employers from pension liabilities and retirement packages. A few months back the company was viewed as one in managed decline, or run-off, and the shares at around 120p reflected this.

Just is now firmly in growth mode. The company has written £260 million of bulk annuities since the June end of the first half of the financial year and was getting in new business in that period on margins of 8.9 per cent, against 5 per cent at the same point last year. Profits from new business in that half more than doubled to £64 million.

The cost savings from the merger are almost all through, Just has a new revolving credit facility of £200 million and the solvency capital ratio, reflecting available reserves, is comfortable at 150 per cent. The shares, unchanged at 160¾p, trade on a fair discount to the embedded value figure of 221p, the best measure of the worth of its assets. However, the share price advance since the spring does not suggest much upside.
MY ADVICE Avoid
WHY The shares look well up with events



Just Group still falling, 147 as I write. Anyone know why yet?
Micawber
Posted: 18 September 2017 08:40:04(UTC)

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JUST: I imagine there is some profit taking, see preceding posts. IMO that might put it into buying territory again. I am holding mine.

I sold ALFA Financial Software this morning (sp stalled after the rise following the results) for a gain of just over 10% in one month.

Good results from Green REIT (one of my Brexit investments) today, and an excellent detailed review of the Dublin commercial property scene from the asset manager. Shares up +2.15% as I write (showing me +11% over the year plus yield of 3.1% predicted to rise to over 4% as its pf matures; in euros). Holding (thought about increasing).

Also good results again from Learning Technologies today.

I look forward to results from Begbies Traynor this week, another of my investments based on Brexit, potentially rising interest rates, and therefore the probability of UK SME insolvencies rising from recent lows. But already showing me +29% since purchase in April so might be some profit taking there too.
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c brown on 20/09/2017(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 18 September 2017 14:42:26(UTC)

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After the BoE induced Currency and Stocks slight turmoil, have nudged up :-

+ Asia Pacific Income HFEL
+ North America Income NAIT

These hardly qualify as investment 'master-strokes'!

Mr H
of Boring Investing Assocs
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Sara G on 18/09/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 18 September 2017 15:31:14(UTC)

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Mr Helpful;51220 wrote:
After the BoE induced Currency and Stocks slight turmoil, have nudged up :-

+ Asia Pacific Income HFEL
+ North America Income NAIT

These hardly qualify as investment 'master-strokes'!

Mr H
of Boring Investing Assocs

,,,but two of our favourite holdings....
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Mr Helpful on 19/09/2017(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 18 September 2017 17:45:54(UTC)

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Mr Helpful;51220 wrote:
After the BoE induced Currency and Stocks slight turmoil, have nudged up :-

+ Asia Pacific Income HFEL
+ North America Income NAIT

These hardly qualify as investment 'master-strokes'!

Mr H
of Boring Investing Assocs


I've opened a position in JAI (JP Morgan Asian IT) for similar reasons. Will top up on further volatility, so you're not the only boring one Mr H!


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Mr Helpful on 19/09/2017(UTC), c brown on 20/09/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 19 September 2017 07:21:59(UTC)

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Bango's results today make excellent reading including a readable account of what it does and where. http://www.londonstockex...etail/BGO/13367003.html

Expected to reach profitability by end 2017 with enormous growth potential and top class adopters (Amazon, Google, MS etc,). This is my one pick from David Kempton's stimulating tips this year, showing me +40% in 11 weeks. If it was not already bumping my normal limit for an AIM share I'd buy more. As it is, I am likely to sell it from my fun pf and buy back into an ISA pf for longer term holding.
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c brown on 20/09/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 19 September 2017 07:57:41(UTC)

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And solid results today from Judges Scientific, in my new AIM IHT ISA set up last April, where there are so far three winners (including JDG up 20% and AFX up 31%), three losers (worst is Lok'n'Store -15%) , and one not moving, but which is up 2% overall since establishment.
Micawber
Posted: 19 September 2017 08:08:42(UTC)

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srg751;50971 wrote:
Micawber;50966 wrote:
Possible short term tactical buying opportunity in Inland Homes?

About 20% down on its price in March when Investors' Chronicle tipped it as a buy. P/E of around 3.8. Seen as a property company, discount of around 40% on the NAV estimated at end Dec 2016 (full year's report). London & South East regional brownfield property developer, middle price range not premium. Looks terrible on momentum, and on comparison with the recent performance of both Watkin Jones (Wales, Belfast, multi-occupant developments) and Telford Homes (London residential developments), to take but two; and LTV higher than some at around 50%; but:

- last year's results affected by contractor failure in that year (once-off charge)
- other property development cos have produced good results this year
- on the face of it seriously undervalued and even with borrowings netted off, favourable price to book.

Due for a re-rating? Institutional shareholders here: https://markets.ft.com/d...sheet/profile?s=INL:LSE
and slightly more buyiing than selling by them

And - results due in about a month.

Unless you think their mixed residential/industrial development market is collapsing, cue for a re-rating?

Views? If they get marked up tomorrow morning I'll know this forum is being read.....



The problem Inland ( the 'reluctant'? House builder) faces is that they're struggling to offload some of the larger sites so they need to borrow the capital to develop (with all the consequential risks and problems attached). The land bank is also apparently depreciating in the current climate and they're having to reduce the prices on new builds to shift them. They will probably need to take on a JV partner who in the current market will want a larger slice of the action

Theyre in danger of falling between two stools-"The Accidental Developer" They are best suited in doing the heavy lifting on site assembly and planning and whistling it straight out of the door to hungry housebuilders

The problem is they are fairly replete at the moment Every confidence though in Wicks, he knows the score and is time served and will be doing everything to max shareholder value.


The market however seems to be thinking along my lines, perhaps for similar tactical reasons, and the stake I bought in INL later that day is so far up 5% (and rising strongly this morning, for some reason). INL comes up strongly on "Buffet" type value screenings (perhaps because they are not up to date with your view of downward pf valuation?). Whether I'll sell before the results or after is moot.
srg751
Posted: 19 September 2017 12:05:07(UTC)

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INLAND HOMES SP is up on 'today's' announcement that they've been granted planning for 350 homes on their Wilton site.

My view ?.... they'll need someone with deep pockets to come in to bankroll it.

Edit:
Whether they go down the JV route, or acquire a facility, either way strengthens their position so I reckon that you'll make money. They're certainly in a better position than they were yesterday, so to speak.
GL.
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Micawber on 20/09/2017(UTC)
Freddy4Skin
Posted: 19 September 2017 13:47:09(UTC)

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Sara G;51229 wrote:
Mr Helpful;51220 wrote:
After the BoE induced Currency and Stocks slight turmoil, have nudged up :-

+ Asia Pacific Income HFEL
+ North America Income NAIT

These hardly qualify as investment 'master-strokes'!

Mr H
of Boring Investing Assocs


I've opened a position in JAI (JP Morgan Asian IT) for similar reasons. Will top up on further volatility, so you're not the only boring one Mr H!




Hi Sara,

Yeah, JAI seems to be quite popular at the moment. I did look at it a couple of years ago when I was looking to increase my exposure to Asia. Whilst it is cheap compared with its peers and on a reasonable discount, holds the ubiquitous Tencent, Samsung, Alibaba etc. it is nevertheless weighted toward Financials (37%) which is fine if that is what you want but I'm more tech inclined so went for IAT, ATR when it was a -6% discount which seems to be doing well and later SDP. I also bought 3ELM last December, up 77% so far but of course it is not for everyone.
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Sara G on 19/09/2017(UTC), c brown on 20/09/2017(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 19 September 2017 17:22:12(UTC)

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Hi Freddy,

Yes, I'm happy with the holdings for JAI as I have a lot of tech elsewhere. I dithered for some time over whether to go for SDP or PHI (suggested by another poster) instead, but the currency situation / slightly wider discount forced my hand. I was also drawn by the following extract from the fund objective:

"Following consultation with the Company's major shareholders, the Company has agreed with the Investment Manager that the Company should take more active positions versus its benchmark, the Morgan Stanley Composite Asia Free Index ex-Japan. The Investment Manager will now be able to overweight or underweight the benchmark by up to 15% for Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and China and 12% for other markets within the benchmark. In addition, the Investment Manager has been given discretion to invest up to 10% of the portfolio in Australian stocks and has full discretion actively to manage the Company's actual gearing level within the range of 90% to 120%."

It also contrasts nicely with FAS (my other major Asian holding) in terms of style and holdings.

3ELM looks very exciting, but I'm guessing that losses would be magnified as well as gains? I score pretty high in terms of risk tolerance (test available on finametrica site) but I think I would lose sleep over that one!
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Freddy4Skin on 19/09/2017(UTC)
Freddy4Skin
Posted: 19 September 2017 18:03:16(UTC)

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Hi Sara,

Thanks for the info. on JAI, I'm sure it will do well.

I too hold FAS, a nice complement in the pf, with it's medium/small cap value approach. I bought in a large wedge when Nitin Bajaj was appointed manager around the same time Charles Plowden was appointed at Monks. Both have done well thus far.

What to do with the FAS subscription shares?

As for 3EML, I do sleep soundly at night as the money I put in was half the profits from holding QQQ3 and 3USL through Trumps election so it's all good. I've taken to buying ETFs as an alternative to holding cash in the pf, I only buy ITs with a view to holding for the long term. I did look at VFEM and EMIM but that's for wimps!

The only other ETF I currently hold is RBTX which I like for many reasons amongst which is the medium size companies it holds, may even turn into along term hold.
Sara G
Posted: 19 September 2017 18:41:17(UTC)

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Yes, FAS and MNKS are two of my best performers over the last couple of years - I like to buy in when there is a change of management as the big players tend to wait until the new manager proves themselves, whereas I can afford to take a risk.

I don't think the FAS Subscription shares will be worth much this year, but I'm happy to let them sit there.
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Freddy4Skin on 19/09/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 20 September 2017 13:51:30(UTC)

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srg751;51249 wrote:
INLAND HOMES SP is up on 'today's' announcement that they've been granted planning for 350 homes on their Wilton site.

My view ?.... they'll need someone with deep pockets to come in to bankroll it.

Edit:
Whether they go down the JV route, or acquire a facility, either way strengthens their position so I reckon that you'll make money. They're certainly in a better position than they were yesterday, so to speak.
GL.

The RNS states only that they *submitted* the planning application.. When I read that, my reaction was that submitting is a milestone of sorts but not a price-moving one. INL also announced yesterday that their results would be published on 28 September, so I think what we're seeing is a pre-results speculation on a share that had drifted unnoticed into a low valuation but is now in focus. +13% in a week is OK for one of my rare ventures into the sector.
satish mittal
Posted: 20 September 2017 15:42:05(UTC)

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Hello,
FAS is my major holding but recently it has not performed well. As a result I have added a bit of JAI. I am OK with my other big holding MONKS. What is your view on PAC & Stewart Asia Pacific Leaders Fund. I have virtually no small and mid-cap companies except in Japan and Europe. What is the view of readers.
Thanks,
Satish
Sara G
Posted: 20 September 2017 19:25:30(UTC)

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satish mittal;51271 wrote:
Hello,
FAS is my major holding but recently it has not performed well. As a result I have added a bit of JAI. I am OK with my other big holding MONKS. What is your view on PAC & Stewart Asia Pacific Leaders Fund. I have virtually no small and mid-cap companies except in Japan and Europe. What is the view of readers.
Thanks,
Satish


Hi Satish,

I topped up FAS on recent price weakness and will do so again if opportunities present. I think the value style offers some protection - PEG is 0.88... Also worth noting that it is 70% invested in small and midcaps, so if it is your major holding then you will have a significant investment in smaller companies.

FSAPL is a good solid Asia fund and would be my preferred vehicle for large cap exposure if I wanted an open-ended fund. PAC is a great choice if you don't want high exposure to China and is well regarded on this forum.
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satish mittal on 21/09/2017(UTC)
satish mittal
Posted: 21 September 2017 17:47:21(UTC)

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Hi Sara,
Thanks for clarifying the issues. Satish
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