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John Baron Portfolios IC
Posted: 12 June 2017 09:54:02(UTC)

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Jim S on 12/06/2017(UTC), Guest on 12/06/2017(UTC), bill blayney on 12/06/2017(UTC), Sara G on 12/06/2017(UTC), Kenpen2 on 13/06/2017(UTC), John Grant on 14/06/2017(UTC), Guest on 18/06/2017(UTC), Alan M on 18/06/2017(UTC)
Jim S
Posted: 12 June 2017 15:15:19(UTC)

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I found JB's comments about multinationals being 'sitting ducks' for an impending crackdown on their various tax avoidance schemes very interesting.

If true, that would have implications for a lot of big tech companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Google etc and the direction of their share prices over the next few years. Likewise for tech ITs like SMIT, MNL etc, likewise for some multinationals like Starbucks.

I'm not convinced such a crackdown is likely to happen any time soon or that even that it would be as successful as JB expects, but its an interesting viewpoint. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

US stock prices seem to have already priced in a high probability of Trump allowing some tax-free return of untaxed, foreign earned funds back to the US. If the direction of travel is likely to be the opposite way (ie. higher tax on those foreign earnings in the long run), that sounds like something which could lead to a significant downward correction.
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Mickey on 12/06/2017(UTC)
Posted: 12 June 2017 16:09:10(UTC)

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Political, with countries like Germany keen to milk US tech companies but not so keen for other countries to impose fines on their cheating car companies?
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Mickey on 12/06/2017(UTC), Guest on 18/06/2017(UTC)
Posted: 12 June 2017 16:17:23(UTC)

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Last night, as a result of the election, I was thinking about and pretty well made up my mind about reducing on my small companies IT's. Now today John Baron comes along recommending small companies! So now I'm back to the "Shall I, Shan't I?"

I used to think I was indecisive, but now I'm not so sure.
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Law Man
Posted: 12 June 2017 16:21:36(UTC)

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I posted the following in IC:

Persuasive arguments. My concerns are:

1. Is now the right time to buy in given the substantial rise in small cap ITs over the last year; and the real risk of a market fall within the next 2 years?

2. Small caps covers a wide range.Which ITs are appropriate to take advantage of UK exporting; and how do they compare with European, Japanese and US small cap ITs?
King Lodos
Posted: 12 June 2017 18:59:40(UTC)

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Technicals and valuations have pointed towards UK small(/mainly micro)-caps for a while.

But following the hung parliament, UK business confidence is down.

I think right now no one knows .. I don't believe in buying dips (because you never know how deep they'll be), but will slash UK Small-Caps if price trends start to feel less optimistic.

Posted: 12 June 2017 20:22:27(UTC)

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I generally like smaller company funds and despite worrying for much of the year I've hung on so far. For what its worth, my best performer over the past 6 months has been Threadneedle Pan Euro Smaller Companies which has about a fifith of its money in the UK and the rest in Europe.

However, at some point soon now I expect I'll trim the UK only funds. All except SEC (another 1%-er) have just lost some of their 2017 gains. Except for PCT of course, which doesn't seem to do much of anything.
Mark Stringer
Posted: 18 June 2017 08:16:16(UTC)

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jvi, excellent point about German hypocrisy.
Mark Stringer
Posted: 18 June 2017 08:26:32(UTC)

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Surely at some point the tax subsidy that the big techs (and very many others) have enjoyed will have to be trimmed.
The tax sweeteners that companies enjoy are similar to the much lauded 'best company to work for' pointless lists complied by rags like The Times and somehow it is always forgotten who actually pays the price for the myriad of employee benefits; the immediate customer and their customers.
The tax take is declining with fewer people paying more so it stands to reason that at some point the obsessively greedy need to 'pony up'.
David Andrews
Posted: 18 June 2017 09:44:01(UTC)

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"jvi, excellent point about German hypocrisy."

@@Mark Stringer

I believe jvi is mis-informed. AFAIR VW has agreed to pay $ 13 Bn in fines plus another $ 6 Bn or so to the car-owners concerned . The German government may not have wanted VW to be fined, but that certainly hasn't , apparently, influenced events.
Mark Stringer
Posted: 18 June 2017 16:36:20(UTC)

Joined: 19/08/2013(UTC)
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'Show me the money' then we'll see how much the 'agreements' actually mean.
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