Share this page:
Stay connected:
Welcome to the Citywire Money Forums, where members share investment ideas and discuss everything to do with their money.

You'll need to log in or set up an account to start new discussions or reply to existing ones. See you inside!

Notification

Icon
Error

ALM
dyfed
Posted: 27 April 2017 08:45:45(UTC)
#1

Joined: 01/09/2016(UTC)
Posts: 248

Thanks: 345 times
Was thanked: 281 time(s) in 137 post(s)
Has fallen off a cliff! 53% loss so good thing I only have a v small holding. Impossible for me to assess it's value or future potential: I love the concept and would normally be tempted to buy. However, the restructuring of the development lines they support seems to have been badly handled and very careless to lose yr CEO at the same time. Net result is that I have lost confidence in the management approach. But the underlying principles still seem good.
Any thoughts?
S Dobbo
Posted: 27 April 2017 09:52:48(UTC)
#2

Joined: 24/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 106

Thanks: 133 times
Was thanked: 106 time(s) in 56 post(s)
Not knowing anything about the company but as a more general view.

1. You only have a very small amount and have lost half so stick it in the bottom drawer forget about it. You say you think the 'underlying principles still seem good' so it could turn around and you get your money back or even make on it. Keep an eye on RNS's for company and management changes to signal acknowledgment of problems trying to be solved.

2. If you do the above then you could add a 1/2 of a very small amount to average down! But this may be catching a falling knife? Do you still believe in it? Is it being heavily shorted?

3. Sell up, move on and use the losses to offset some of this years CGT.

I'd be tempted to do option 1, see how it pans out and then flip to option 3 if it suits later on.
2 users thanked S Dobbo for this post.
dyfed on 27/04/2017(UTC), glenn hicks on 27/04/2017(UTC)
xcity
Posted: 27 April 2017 10:58:01(UTC)
#3

Joined: 12/04/2015(UTC)
Posts: 385

Thanks: 75 times
Was thanked: 348 time(s) in 180 post(s)
I'm assuming you mean Allied Minds.
53% isn't too bad - you might have paid over 700p.
It was far too high because it is one of those stocks that people get excited about.
Evidence suggests that they'd kept a lot of dependents whose time had gone and should have been let go a long time ago. So they weren't good at rigorous appraisal.
Maybe new management will be better.
Actual value impossible to tell from outside. Though I've not tried. Probably not much, possibly many multiples of the current share price.
If you hold, you need to be seeing evidence of some of their investments making genuine progress.
1 user thanked xcity for this post.
dyfed on 27/04/2017(UTC)
srg751
Posted: 27 April 2017 18:04:35(UTC)
#4

Joined: 10/08/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,142

Thanks: 395 times
Was thanked: 959 time(s) in 486 post(s)


Woodford view ;

"The Woodford Patient Capital Trust delivered a negative return in March. Allied Minds was one of the largest detractors from performance. The company announced a change in chief executive during the month which appeared to unsettle the market, as did the announcement earlier in April that it is discontinuing funding at seven subsidiaries, which has resulted in a further decline in its share price. It is our view that the market has overreacted to this announcement. We remain attracted to the Allied Minds investment case – indeed we remain strong supporters of the broader intellectual property commercialisation sector. The businesses we have backed have diverse portfolios of young, disruptive businesses with significant long-term potential.
The model works best, in our view, when small amounts of capital are deployed at a very early-stage across a wide range of businesses, and more capital is selectively deployed as and when those companies demonstrate successful progress against milestones. As is natural in this space, not all of them will fulfil their potential, and so it can become necessary to withdraw support and funding from certain businesses. These are obviously difficult decisions but it is an important discipline and sends a positive message to shareholders about a management team’s intent. We never believed that all of Allied Minds’ subsidiaries would succeed and we have built our positive investment case for the stock around the value that we see in a portfolio of more successful subsidiaries. By crystallising value in businesses that are not demonstrating the progress that had been hoped for, Allied Minds can focus more aggressively on the companies that are rapidly progressing towards their commercial goals and reallocate capital towards new ideas. In that respect, we believe the strategy is sensible and will help to accelerate the creation of long-term value for shareholders. We expect to hear positive news from these more promising businesses through the remainder of this year and into next."
1 user thanked srg751 for this post.
dyfed on 28/04/2017(UTC)
chubby bunny
Posted: 27 April 2017 18:28:48(UTC)
#5

Joined: 31/10/2016(UTC)
Posts: 72

Thanks: 38 times
Was thanked: 86 time(s) in 45 post(s)
Didn't the big Singaporean sovereign wealth fund buy additional shares after the recent announcement? They manage $100 billion so a couple of million is small fry for them, but they must see something in it.
1 user thanked chubby bunny for this post.
dyfed on 28/04/2017(UTC)
+ Reply to discussion

Markets

Other markets