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srg751
Posted: 18 May 2017 20:22:19(UTC)

Joined: 10/08/2013(UTC)
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Don't know where Chaz reads impeachment in my post, anyway, to elaborate, the pound has also rallied to a near 8 month high. That says sell overseas holdings. Rather sell and get it wrong than hold and get it wrong. EM's leak through large holes.
King Lodos
Posted: 18 May 2017 21:35:43(UTC)

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Trends have been pointing towards UK exposure and away from dollar for a while.

Impeachment was believed to be a risk with this latest round of Trump bashing. I think watergate saw markets drop 42% over 18 months.

But a weaker dollar, potentially one less rate hike, have positives for EMs too. Then again, I'm normally quite in tune with why markets are reacting – and this time I feel I'm missing something.
Micawber
Posted: 18 May 2017 21:36:31(UTC)

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I wrote early in the year that the rally was built on little more than hot air and hope. That is now dissipating, and it's a good thing the air is being let out a bit and valuations are coming off highs. At least, for those of us with 15% cash in our pfs it's a good thing. Earnings might catch up a little bit with prices.....

Neither have I had much faith in the pickup in global growth - which appears to be running out of steam already. So, back to where we were in last October, say, except for UK where Brexit will come to loom larger.

Trump is an embarrassment to most senior Republicans, and the Republican establishment might fancy their chances of re-election better if led ad interim by Pence. However, there's no smoking gun yet to justify premature talk of impeachment. This Trump wobble is probably just the trigger for a welcome little shakeout that the markets were looking for/fearing.

and PS: it's not so much that the pound is up, but that the dollar is down....
1 user thanked Micawber for this post.
srg751 on 19/05/2017(UTC)
Micawber
Posted: 18 May 2017 21:36:44(UTC)

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system problems - duplicated post
Micawber
Posted: 18 May 2017 21:37:03(UTC)

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system problems - duplicated post
King Lodos
Posted: 19 May 2017 02:00:33(UTC)

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Good data coming out of Europe and Japan though .. Some of the best in years .. Looked like the data was actually supporting the hot air.

I mostly moved out of the US, but kept hold of Tech stocks .. The Trump trade was always one to buy the expectation and sell the reality.

GAM Star Credit Opportunities is still being a star performer .. My big bet from the start of the year.
Micawber
Posted: 19 May 2017 04:59:53(UTC)

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The hot air was mainly in the anglo-saxon economies. Europe, Japan and India are areas where I've increased weighting this year. But global growth forecasts overall are still hedged about with caveats (IMF, World Bank, OECD). There's still the growing overhang of vast debt, and apart from local anomalies (like UK), few signs of the kind of inflation that would catch up then erode it. In the US, I think it unlikely that Republicans will allow Trump to increase debt for his splurges, at least by much.
dyfed
Posted: 19 May 2017 06:04:18(UTC)

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foxy ron;46880 wrote:
Dyfed,

PHNX in a dip now between FY and INT results and therefore between dividends. It happens. Slow growth but decent dividends.


Thanks. I have another buying instruction in if it drops a bit more. But I note a couple of big sellers c £2.5M.
dyfed
Posted: 19 May 2017 06:08:41(UTC)

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srg751;46885 wrote:

Don't know where Chaz reads impeachment in my post, anyway, to elaborate, the pound has also rallied to a near 8 month high. That says sell overseas holdings. Rather sell and get it wrong than hold and get it wrong. EM's leak through large holes.



I want to be overweight in EM/Asia so I was buying gently in EMs yesterday e.g. UEM (holds Ocean Wilsons for you Hansa fans - presumably difficulties with Brazil presidency are contributing to the recent fall). I agree however that EMs have overshot a bit so looking for a drop before I buy again, but certainly not selling. Short term problems maybe but long/medium term the growing middle classes here are surely going to bring gains?
Keith Hilton
Posted: 19 May 2017 14:52:03(UTC)

Joined: 20/08/2010(UTC)
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Sold my recent ill-judged purchase of CNA. Fortunately, got out with a tiny profit when dividend included.

It may well turn out to be a decent income stock, but although I initially didn't expect any caps to be too onerous, I'm less sure now that the Tories have proposed cutting the Winter Fuel Allowance. I'm sure that they'll need to justify this with lower energy bills, although ultimately it may all be hot air!

Noticed Blackrock bought a substantial amount yesterday, so obviously their views differ to mine.
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