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My FTSE 100 Stock pick
Micawber
Posted: 19 January 2016 12:09:04(UTC)
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My FTSE 100 picks for this year would be Shell (@1377p), ITV at 263, RR at 556, and Unilever at 2911. But I'm not buying any more of them.

Smaller: Sophos. three year view. Strong product, rising demand, cyber security uncontaminated by suspicion of links to either US government/NSA or Russian government. Only to the rather noble UK govt....
Micawber
Posted: 26 February 2016 15:55:43(UTC)
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Micawber;31077 wrote:
My FTSE 100 picks for this year would be Shell (@1377p), ITV at 263, RR at 556, and Unilever at 2911. But I'm not buying any more of them..


So far so good, given the upheavals since that post over a month ago.

At today's prices, Shell now 1636 up 18.8%

ITV 252 down 4.2% (but may rise on its results due 2 March)

RR now 686 up 23.4%

Unilever now 3121 up 7.2%
1 user thanked Micawber for this post.
Keith Hilton on 26/02/2016(UTC)
Dian
Posted: 19 October 2016 08:44:44(UTC)
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Is there any upside potential for NEXT (NXT)? Is it another brexit winner?

King Lodos
Posted: 19 October 2016 10:21:37(UTC)
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Tony Peterson;27987 wrote:
I seem to remember reading somewhere that about 80% of day trading gamblers lose the lot in the long run, rather like the bookies' customers.

Whereas almost all LTBH investors make solid gains.

Relying on the analysis of others is a dubious procedure. If those others owned the philosopher's stone they would certainly keep the knowledge to themselves.


According to the Dalbar study (and others), the average retail investor returns 2% annually, and the average DIY trader 0%.

Which makes sense. Even with all the bad decisions, buy-and-hold investors pick up a little market beta, whereas traders are more market neutral, so their good and bad decisions cancel each other out between them.

Either way, you don't want to be average. And even strict Bogleheads are staring at 2% annual returns now, with stock and bond valuations where they are.
Micawber
Posted: 19 October 2016 10:35:21(UTC)
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NEXT is prey to likely declining consumer spending in real terms, and to rising import costs. It wouldn't be one of my picks.

But thanks for reviving this thread. It's always interesting to track one's own picks since the post above:

Shell @1377p now 2150 + 56%
ITV at 263 now 179 - 32%
RR at 556 now 762 + 37%
Unilever at 2911 now 3479 + 19.5%

Sophos. three year view. +17%

The anomaly is loser ITV, which I think is way oversold - advertising revenue decline is hardly likely to be of the same order as the share price decline; ITV have had several successful and exportable new series on the content front; they have cash for yet another special divi next spring; they are a perennial bid target for larger US companies wanting to grab content (LIberty Global is the most frequently mentioned, has said it doesn't want more than its current ten percent shareholding, but after the decline in sterling ITV is even more tempting...); and CEO Crozier (the key figure) is still there. I see that it is now a Questor tip in the DT.

I no longer hold RR but retain the others.
2 users thanked Micawber for this post.
Bellabeck on 19/10/2016(UTC), Dian on 22/10/2016(UTC)
Dian
Posted: 22 October 2016 08:46:55(UTC)
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What is your top FTSE 100 picks?
Dian
Posted: 14 December 2016 07:02:09(UTC)
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How about following stocks? They appreciated more than other stocks during past month. Am I right?

Mondi,Ashtead Group,3i Group,ITV,Old Mutual Group,InterContinental HotelsGroup,
Sky,BP,Royal Dutch Shell and Intertek Group.
Micawber
Posted: 14 December 2016 08:51:49(UTC)
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Dian;38558 wrote:
Is there any upside potential for NEXT (NXT)? Is it another brexit winner?



Good company but why would it be a Brexit winner? Predominantly domestic facing, real wage growth forecast to be static or negative so UK consumers with proportionately less to spend, while sterling's depreciation has increased costs of materials and manufacture sourced outside UK. Share price was already declining before the referendum and continues to decline afterwards. Now drifting along. Why would you expect it to pick up?
Micawber
Posted: 04 January 2017 10:32:39(UTC)
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Micawber;40405 wrote:
Dian;38558 wrote:
Is there any upside potential for NEXT (NXT)? Is it another brexit winner?



Good company but why would it be a Brexit winner? Predominantly domestic facing, real wage growth forecast to be static or negative so UK consumers with proportionately less to spend, while sterling's depreciation has increased costs of materials and manufacture sourced outside UK. Share price was already declining before the referendum and continues to decline afterwards. Now drifting along. Why would you expect it to pick up?


Today, 21 days later: http://citywire.co.uk/money/next-drags-down-retail-stocks-on-profit-warning/a981656?ref=citywire-money-latest-news-list
srg751
Posted: 04 January 2017 11:19:19(UTC)
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Dian;40400 wrote:
How about following stocks? They appreciated more than other stocks during past month. Am I right?

Mondi,Ashtead Group,3i Group,ITV,Old Mutual Group,InterContinental HotelsGroup,
Sky,BP,Royal Dutch Shell and Intertek Group.


For what it's worth Dian, if the ftse wasn't at such a high level, I think that Iintercontinental Hotels is a great choice, and I would buy. I love the business model. ( cake and eat it).
kWIKSAVE
Posted: 04 January 2017 13:07:41(UTC)
#52

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We now have the answer to NEXT as forecast astutely by Micawber.

As to picking a FTSE 100 stock for 2017 , I give a choice.

Diageo ..... solid growth based on worldwide expansion ..... folks will always like a tipple


Thought about InterContinental Hotels but decided upon a more risky stock

International Airlines Consolidated. BA is opening more routes and with the new runway can only benefit ...came back from Morocco recently and the flight was full. BA offers holidays too. Will have hedged oil price.



( In reserve would be Rio Tinto , although likely to be volatile).
mark senior
Posted: 04 January 2017 14:55:40(UTC)
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A bit boring but what about Whitbread, down 11% over last 12 months.... but

Premier Inn and Costa still going strong, both likely to be helped in any increase in tourism as a result of sterling revaluation.
kWIKSAVE
Posted: 04 January 2017 15:28:44(UTC)
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Mark Senior

Already have Whitbread in my pf - doubled up on it a bit back as price dipped


so I hope that is not boring !
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